Imagine if PS4 runs out of stock and we have early 2014 again. Has this ever happened for a console in it's 2nd year?

drake_tolu said: Xevross said: I edited your numbers out of my ass as a guesstimate at what I think PS4's holiday could be (I expect it to be a little bit less), your October seems too high but I mostly agree apart from that Week of Black Friday > Week before chrismas ? the week before chrismas is the week most important of year. All console sell more in this week, only XBOX console sell more.   Look other Sony console sales: Year Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2007 376K VS 660K 446K VS 840K Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2008 424K VS 560K 500K VS 788K Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2009 790K VS 1M 375K VS 530K Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2010 743K VS 830K 345K VS 526K Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2011 839K VS 895K 188K VS 332K Black Friday VS Week before Chrismas 2012 775K VS 600K 107K VS 267K As you look, only 1/12 the Sony console have sold more the week of Black Friday than the week before chrismas.

That just shows the reliance and power of the US market for MS.

Remember people.....

Don't not underestimate the Power of PlayStation.

It happened for Wii and PS2, but nowadays, it cant happen if you are prepared, and i think they are

You are not taking into account PS4 is the console of choice, as was the wii and to an extent 360 in NA.  Seems you are basing your PS4 estimates by PS3 numbers, not the best way to do it as their places in the market are quite different.  

PS4 barring shortages will get the biggest holidays bump world wide and in NA.

But even based on PS3 numbers, being the lowest expectations to have, the PS4 will reach 17M. So if we take account PS4 being the console of choice, 18-19M is more than possible.

Even more, 20m will be easy if they have enough stock.  PS4 sales prove one thing well, people still want console gaming on a massive scale.  While world wide market share shows huge sales are likely for the holidays.  Crazy as it may be, 22/23 million i can see by January 1.  I cant see any reason other then lack of stock as a reason it cant do it.  

20M is the best to expect i think, 8M consoles would already be an insane amount of stock for the holidays

its not about the console of choice its about the killer apps.

halo was always holiday (one game was september all other november realse)

wii was always casual and kids machine what got the huge holiday bumps.

maybe it will affect the ps4 % bumps this gen.

maybe not so much.

we will knew that after the first 2 holiday seasons

but as i said. we need to take the japan launch and supply issues into account. that made the fist quarter numbers bigger.

why should that units add up for the holiday season as the usual 50%?  thats the reason, i cut off 1m sales ;)

if u talk about us only:

ps 4 ytd is at 2.5m with that extraordinary september

thats why i put the npd numbers for the us short of 2.5m for oct - dec

Being the console of choice changes a lot too, the hardware sales will be less split than in previous generation since people will mostly take a PS4 to play to the big games.