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Aphelion said:
prinz_valium said:
17m is the sweet spot


ps4 sold 4.2m in 2013
oct - dec sales are generally 50% of ytd (xbox and wii got bigger Holiday quarter than playstation historically)
jan - sept 2014 ytd for ps4 is about 7 - 7.5m ( Japan Launch, supply issues and a big September)

so lets go for 40 - 45% as oct - dec sales or 6m



17m is not out of reach. but ps4 can fail that Goal. both is possible

You are not taking into account PS4 is the console of choice, as was the wii and to an extent 360 in NA.  Seems you are basing your PS4 estimates by PS3 numbers, not the best way to do it as their places in the market are quite different.  

PS4 barring shortages will get the biggest holidays bump world wide and in NA.

But even based on PS3 numbers, being the lowest expectations to have, the PS4 will reach 17M. So if we take account PS4 being the console of choice, 18-19M is more than possible.



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m