If you mean by the end of 2014, then a more realistic estimate interval is between 13.7 and 17 million.

So 17 million is the upper bound which is very unlikely though possible. You can see a more detailed analysis here:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1

Furthermore, a quick analysis between the first and last halves of each between 2007 and 2012 inclusive for PS3 and X360 showed an almost exact doubling of sales in the second half of the year compared to the first, though with a variance. The jump was smallest in 2008 with +83% while largest in 2009 with 125%.

So this means, based on historical data, the combined XB1 and PS4 sales are likely to increase between 83% to 125% from 6.1 (4.2 + 1.9) in the first half of 2014 to a figure between 11.2 and 13.7 combined, reaching up to total of a figure between 17.3 to 19.8 million combined.

Based on the current trend, around 67-70% of those sales will belong to PS4, and the rest to XB1, while individual figures are as follows...

2014 Annual Sales
PS4 : 67-70% of 17.3 - 19.8 million = 11.6 to 13.9
XB1 : 30-33% of 17.3 - 19.8 million = 5.2 to 6.5

Cumulative Sales by the end of 2014
- (add 2013 end sales)
PS4 : 11.6 to 13.9 + 4.1 = 15.7 to 18 million
XB1 : 5.2 to 6.5 + 2.9 = 8.1 to 9.5 million

In short, although the ranges somewhat move in either direction, the core estimates don't change
PS4
Original estimate : 13.7 - 17 mil
Half2 / Half1 estimate : 15.7 - 18 mil
-shifted up a bit

XB1
Original estimate : 6.3 - 9.8 mil
Half2 / Half1 estimate : 8.1 - 9.5 mil
-range has narrowed down

So we can now confidently say, by the end of 2014

PS4 will sell around 16-17 million
XB1 will sell around 8-9 million

The non-linear PS4 / XB1 sales regression analysis also yields a similar result, producing a ratio around 1.92 for the 2014 end, implying PS4 will have sold 90% more consoles (16.5 million / 8.5 million = 1.94). It all makes sense.

I don't think Sony ever said that they expect the PS4 to beat the PS2.

edit: nvm im blind

but ur second half 2014 of first half 2014 market ps4/xb1 market share is kind of wrong

what about tier2 in the second half of 2014? so cut down 5 - 7% form ur 67-70% figure ;)

GTA + assassins creed + Destiny + Christmas+ COD+total domination , it is more than possible if japan helps, but it will reach 16m in any case before 2015, mark m'y words

I think it can hit 17M by April for sure!... End of 2014, Im less confident about... I hope it hits near 17M, we need at least one successful home console this Gen

done

Before it goes to waste, those who are interested, can also continue the conversation about the End of 2014 Sales Estimates in the link below:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=187926

2014 First half ps4-xb1 & ps4/xb4 market share are as follows:

Cumulative : 63.7% - 36.3%,  PS4 / XB1 = 1.76

Annual : 69.5% - 30.5%, PS4 / XB1 = 2.28

There is nothing that in the statistics that suggests XB1's share will rise further. It has gone down considerably since last year, and the only thing that stops it from going further is the price cut.

Market share of XB1 (between XB1 and PS4 only) in the first half of 2014

Cumulative : Decreased from 41.0% to 36.3%

2014 only : Decreased from 36.6% to 30.5%

Also the current annual 30.5%, which is smaller than the cumulative 36.3% suggests that the market share will keep decreasing below 36.6%, albeit the price decrease may reverse it a bit. So yes, 30-33% range is VERY LIKELY.

It probably won't even hit 15m.

17 millions i don't believe, 10 or 12 millions is a more real number.