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alabtrosMyster said:

Before the PS4's launch there were rumors that the balllpark for the first year was around 16 millions (I don't think they will reach 16 millions by Nov 15th) .

I think Japan not picking up home consoles so far this cycle hurts those projections, even if they sold only 20k consoles on average (which is way more than what they do now) this would net about a million consoles a year just for Japan... I wonder if they have some big japanese titles that can turn the tide waiting to be announced, or if they will push the Vita in that territory.

I think 15 million is reasonably high for the end of the year 2014, but then if they want to sellmore PS4 than PS2 they will need to sell 15+ million a year for 10 years! ... next year has to be big, between 25 - 30 million consoles need to be sold, otherwise, it will not meed expectations (at least not the expectation of selling more or as much as the PS2)... heck at 15 million consoles sold a year in 5 years it will not even have sold 80 million machines.

Hopefully I under estimate the holiday bump.

I don't think Sony ever said that they expect the PS4 to beat the PS2.