Around 2019-2020. They are a bit underpowered next to the standards of the last two generations, yes, but in the end, diminishing returns and slower improvements on electronics will more than compensate for it.
I would say 2018. Publishers have been stating for awhile now that they expect a much shorter console life this time around. Think I remember Sony themselves saying this would be a shorter gen.People will pay for a new console very 5 years as long as they can keep it around the 400 range and provide backwards compatibility.
We are already seeing games being dubbed down for PS4 and X1. They don't have the Hardware to last beyond 6 years at max.
| haxxiy said: Around 2019-2020. They are a bit underpowered next to the standards of the last two generations, yes, but in the end, diminishing returns and slower improvements on electronics will more than compensate for it. |
Slower Improvements? The consoles are low/mid range PCs at best. They were outdated significantly the moment they launched. In 5 years it will be quite the gap between what devs are pushing on PC and what we get on consoles. The whole diminishing returns thing is just crap.
I don't think this generation will last anywhere near as long as most people think. The PS4 and Xbox One are already far behind the capabilities of a high-end PC.
Predictions:
3DS successor: Early 2016 (5 years after the 3DS came out)
Vita successor(?): Fairly unlikely at this point, but if it does happen, it will be late 2016/early 2017
Wii U successor: Late 2016 (Since the Wii U isn't going to sell amazingly, I could see Nintendo dropping a year off the standard 5-year life cycle)
Xbox One and PS4 successors: Late 2017 (Earlier than MS and Sony want, but are released at this time due to demands from third parties)
Hardware owned:
PC, PS4, 3DS, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3
Most anticipated games (near to mid future):
Zelda U/NX
The Last Guardian
Nintendo probably 2017 if Wii U doesn't drastically improve and then Sony/Microsoft 2018 or 2019 depends how long they can push the PS4 and XB1
XBOX ONE/Wii U/3DS/PC
RIP Iwata 12/6/1959-7/11/2015
Thanks for all the great memories!
By 2017 (Nov), with Nintendo's next gen console. Back to the traditional 5 year console cycle for them, I think.
prayformojo said:
|
leaves them room for a bigger jump the longer they wait
2018 all three consoles it will be a massacre.
Tsubasa Ozora
Keiner kann ihn bremsen, keiner macht ihm was vor. Immer der richtige Schuss, immer zur richtigen Zeit. Superfussball, Fairer Fussball. Er ist unser Torschützenkönig und Held.
RepedeGoesWoof said:
Yes, I do. It wouldn't surprise me a bit. 2020 is probably a more realistic year, but having a 8-9 year cycle is definitely a possibility with the way the industry is evolving. Again, too many variables and changes to account for. You make it sound like the console industry isn't capable of keeping its systems on the market for that long when we just witnessed a 7-8 year cycle. I don't believe consumers really care about how powerful a console is or whether a game can pull off 60fps/1080p. Games already look great; having a more powerful console isn't the solution here. We won't see huge generational gaps like we did between PS1 to PS2 and PS2 to PS3. |
Sure, we just witnessed a generation that was 7-8 years...and people hated it. Developers hated it, gamers hated it and PC gamers were laughing their asses off all the way to the bank. It was a mistake waiting that long and sluggish sales are partly a result of this.
Things get old and markets need to refresh at the right time to keep healthy. If we go 14-15 years with two console jumps...lol, it's over. Thankfully, Nintendo won't be so stupid.
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