Well, it's pretty obvious that the PS3 is undertracked here. The 360 is closing in on 85M shipped, so PS3 is the same or a little better. So, the true gap is only ~15M-16M.

The PS3 still has a little life in it, as Sony still haven't started pushing it in the smaller countries that they did the PS2, mainly because it is still too expensive. My guess is that when it drops to $149, they will start pushing it. This won't really increase yearly sales, but it should help them stabilize.

The Wii, on the other hand, is dead. Nintendo has pretty much stopped shipments. And where it does still ship, it's not a large enough number to make a difference to the overall shipped number, which is why they don't update them, anymore.

I'm not saying the PS3 will 100% outsell the Wii, but it will definitely be a lot closer than many thought just a few years ago.

if ps3 was undertracked, why they recently ajusted it down?
that was a sign that it was overtracked...

i dont know if it will.
analysing my country(brasil), ps2 has been sold here very well even after ps3 launch. but now, x360 is the king.(cos is easy to piracy than ps3)
in worldwide, maybe ps3 and x360 will divide the potential sales that ps2 received.

but if happens, will take a long time. 2019 maybe? and it will take mora than 2 gens to win its gen.

Probably? I would say it is highly unlikely. Even the OP thinks it's unlikely.

 The PS2 was a true beast.. We'll never see something like that happen once again... Never! :-/

Yeah, I'm guessing these numbers are gonna be pretty close to accurate. There's a very slim chance the ps3 will pass the wiiU, but I'm giving less than 5%. The ps3 isn't even doing 50K a week anymore. 10 million is probably the most it's going to move before we call it officially dead. 

I'm gonna say Wii will finish in first. I mean it's possible for PS3 to catch up, but highly unlikely. PS4 is preventing it.

Humm, maybe is better with one graphic...

Platform	N. America	Europe	Japan	Global
	45,500,000	34,000,000	13,000,000	101,500,000
	31,000,000	37,000,000	11,000,000	92,500,000
	49,000,000	26,500,000	1,670,000	87,500,000

OK!

I don't consider who ever finished with more units during a gen the automatic "winner." I consider what happened while said gen was active. For instance, the SNES did not pass the Genesis until the Sega had created new hardware. So, basically, the Genesis won that generation. The Wii outsold the PS3 and Xbox 360 within the years of 2006-2012 which were the years that generation lasted. Once the Wii-U dropped, that generation was over and we were in a new one.

I can't really see the PS3 doing anymore than 95M. It still goes for ~$250 and by the time they lower the price I don't think anyone is really gonna care. Also the only games they have aren't going to move any systems, most of them are niche Japanese games.

I can't see the PS3 managing it (i'm guessing 95m absolute max, more likely around 90m), but using its current sales as a reference isn't the right way of going about it. Not only are we in the summer, but the PS3 is still priced at $230 for the absolute cheapest model (12GB Super Slim). That's pretty damn expensive when your 7 years younger successor launched at $400 (500GB).

The holidays + a major price cut could generate months of summer sales in a single week. It's those kind of things we need to consider when predicting the chances of it passing the Wii, not its sales during the worst time of year with an unreasonable price tag.