I didnt understand that part either. The 360 is dropping fast so its probably reversed. The One is actually doing strong business in the US. I also didnt understand the Lumia numbers he came up with, I taught those numbers they provided was for all of the quarter not just post-merger.

Yes, Microsoft and MANY other corporations ROUTINELY twist their numbers, bury bad news, and spin their earning results to put them in the best light.  If you think otherwise, you are sadly mistaken!  The bottom line isn't altered, keeping them in compliance with regulators, but they put Xbox in the "Consumer" division, lumping it in with Surface, Windows Phone (and Android patent revenue), hiding what each product is actually making or losing.  You NEVER hear what the "Xbox Division" is making or losing ON ITS OWN, it's ALWAYS lumped in with other products and services.

Yep, the lump together strategy was meant to obscure the losses while they built the brand. I don't expect that to continue for too much longer though, the reasons for a console Xbox to exist are dissipating rapidly. The projections have certainly not been met, and the per unit economics have been significantly downturned by the removal of a lot of the paywalls and failure of DRM monolithic control. Xbox one is certainly not doing well even in the USA market, and July NPD will prove that without a doubt. It's getting ready to cross streams with 360 in ltd, and only held it this long thanks to huge front loading to the core hardcore Xbox fans. Unfortunately for MS, there aren't nearly enough Xbox fans to keep that momentum going. As Sony found with ps3 in the us last gen, the masses need a value that makes sense and want to pick the winning product with the best reputation.

I read the article yesterday, and it felt way off. The Xbox One is doing much better in sales since the price-drop, so they made a mountain out of an ant hill, imo. Forbes does tend to do that though.

It's not doing quite as well as the number has you believe. A lot of people forget that after the price drop was a 5 week NPD, so it was obviously going to be higher. No doubt the timing was planned to make it look better. The boost also seems to have dropped much faster than expected.

July will prove that to be false I believe. All indications point to xb1 getting a temporary bump due to people waiting for the $399 SKU and skipping may. That bubble combined with the 5 week month vastly inflated how xb1 appears to be doing overall. Compared to may, the month they threw away, it looks okayish, compared to April, no not really much boost when you consider weekly averages (with a bubble).

I expect July weekly average to be right back to April weekly average once July NPD is released. Everything aligns exactly with the charts at GameStop, Amazon, Best Buy.

Here is where you are making your mistake.  You think that someone at MS has to justify their profitablility to YOU (or the general public).  THEY DO NOT!  They only have to release what is required by regulations for publically traded companies.  That DOES NOT include detailed financials for each and every product they make!

Now, the truth of the matter is that MS is a MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR company.  They post incredible profits each and every quarter....and Xbox has NOTHING to do with that success!  The Xbox exists because Bill Gates saw Sony's dominance in the industry and wanted to "take over the living room".  They were willing to lose money on the division (for a time), if it meant that millions of customers would own their console, giving them recurring subscription revenue (XBL) and revenue from selling your data.  Their "vision" for Xbox evolved...they wanted to be the "gatekeeper" to ALL of your entertainment...movies, cable TV, games, apps, everything.  They would use Kinect to mine additional data...logos on the coffee table would be scanned, and that data would be sold to advertisers (see their patent applications for Kinect for details)...they would create new revenue models, like scanning the number of viewers in the room and charging per viewer for movies and TV.  In other words, they had MULTIPLE ways they were going to profit from the Xbox, and very little had anything at all to do with gaming.

Now, we all know how this story ended.  Their "vision"...additional DRM, restriction of used games, the forced inclusion of Kinect....it was ALL rejected by consumers, who just wanted a GAMING CONSOLE!  So MS ditches Kinect, sells the XB1 at a lower price and says "We are bringing the GAMES!".  Problem is, they are NOT.  Sony, having planned for this generation YEARS in advance, has DOUBLE the amount of games available on their console!  Additionally, the multiplatform games ALL look and PLAY better on the equivalently priced PS4!  Long story short...the XB1 is NOT selling in the numbers needed for MS to realize their vision...and even if it does...most of the revenue they counted on is not going to be there, since they eliminated the requirement for Kinect! (and the XBL "paywall" for apps)

So, you (and other die-hards) can argue that Xbox is profitable all you want.  The fact is, it's not, it's NEVER been, and it NEVER will be.  It is nothing more than a DISTRACTION to Microsoft's core business at this point, and it's taking resources away from other divisions that could better leverage the capital!  You and I don't get to see the whole picture here...but make no mistake, the BOARD OF DIRECTORS at Microsoft DOES get to see the real numbers...and they are NOT happy!

You will see all of this come to a head late this year or early next year.  Just don't be surprised when the job cuts come, and the Xbox ends up next to those ET cartridges in that New Mexico landfill!  It's happened before, to more astute players than Microsoft.  Remember Atari?  3DO?  Sega? Intellivision?  Colecovision?  The history of this industry is LITTERED with the corspes of dead consoles...to think MS is immune, just because of their money made IN OTHER BUSINESSES, is dumb.

Iow, expect xb1 to do ~120k or so for July, or potentially as low as 95k in combination with the summer lull/lack of releases.

I am sorry but you still ignore that the Xbox division specificly, which wasn't lumped at the time with other products, was profitable since July 2008 (fiscal year July 2007 July 2008). Android didn't release until September 2008.

That pokes a giant hole in your argument. As much I would like to believe your arguments are grounded in facts, it just looks like you want Xbox One to fail. That is fine, people are entitled to their own bias, but at least recognize Xbox 360 was profitable since 2008 and very likely since until 2013 when X1 launched. Now that they are grouped together, the outlook now may be different, but thats beside the point.

That's a long ass article.