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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Do You Still Think Wii U Can Do 25 million??

I think 20 million is a possibility.



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padib said:
daredevil.shark said:

I forgot it. But I remember it now. But I also remember its coming in 3ds. Compared GTA V, Destiny, Farcry 4, COD, Assassins Creed, LBP3, Driveclub, sunset overdrive etc a single fighting game wont give nintendo a big push. Only hardcore nintendo fans will get Wii U and their number is very small.

That's like saying that, for Halo, a single FPS won't give Xbox a big push. It doesn't work that way because we know it has given big pushes in the past, be it for Smash or Halo.

GTAV is a remake, COD and AC are saturated (but will sell well, sure), LBP is not a strong-selling series, sunset overdrive is an uncertain new IP.

And in any case, Smash doesn't compete for the same market as those games do in general. They appeal to very different crowds. So the fact that those games are releasing during that holiday will not greatly affect the sales for Smash.

He's commenting on how PS4/XONE will have a large selection of other titles coming out. Both sides seem to have really weak exclusive IPs (LBP3/Driveclub for PS4...Sunset/Forza/Halo for XONE), but has a large lineup outside of their own even though the games are fairly conservative (filled with sequels and only a few original IPs like Evolve, Destiny, and The Evil Within).

There's no doubt in mind that the games he listed will at least sell respectively well (LBP3 and Evolve) to very, very well (Destiny). As strong as Nintendo's software lineup is, they can't push hardware alone. Do their games push a lot of hardware? Yeah, of course. Enough to justify a console to be a financial success? Nope. I still believe 2014 will be Nintendo's biggest year with Smash and MK8. 2015 will be interesting however. Lots of quality titles coming out, albiet less popular franchises.



DaAndy said:
TheLegendaryWolf said:
Wii U will sell around the N64 figures if not more.


Thats exactly the way i also feel.

I guess the WiiU will end up around N64 sales, so it should be able to manage around 30-35 million.


It's not even close to the GameCube and won't be even with the MK8 bump, there's no chance it's sniffing N64 numbers unless Amiibo and/or Splatoon become legitimate Pokemon-style phenoms IMO (not just "hits", but industry changing blockbusters). 



padib said:

The Wii, DS, 3DS, GB and GBA all disagree though.

For any other manufacturer you're right, but for Nintendo, their games are their bread and butter, it's true for all their consoles, the more popular and the less popular ones. 3rd party games haven't made Nintendo's success since the SNES.

The main pitfall with most posters is that logic that works for Sony and MS is employed for Nintendo but it always leads to discordance with the final numbers.


Sales of their consoles haven't exactly been great since the SNES either besides the Wii, which was a huge fad.



CGI-Quality said:
For those who say: "no", I'd like to know why. Furthermore, for those without any numbers backing up that view, where do you expect it to rest?

It's currently just shy of 7 million, after two years. You're saying, in the next 4-5 years, it won't/can't do another 18 million? I just can't see that, unless something miserable happens. It would have to die off faster than any Nintendo console before it - which is unlikely.


Well all of Nintendo's consoles besides the Wii had 5 year lifespans it seems so it doesn't have 4-5 years. It has 3 max.



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ExplodingBlock said:
Not like XBO is any better,
It got Titanfall and only does 60k a week
And the gap increasing between Wii U and Xbox One
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/251701/xbox-one-vs-wii-uvgchartz-gap-chartsjune-2014-update/


Hasn't t the Xbox 1 sold over 300,000 more units than the Wii u year to date?   That would be a decreasing gap not increasing 



CGI-Quality said:

Which still doesn't really answer my question. Are you saying that it can't do 18 million within the next 3 years (assuming that it stops selling by the Summer of 2017)?


It could but I highly doubt it. I agree with a lot of people that say this will be the peak year for wii u not next year. The Wii U has been sitting at 6.17, or 6.18, million shipped since March. According to VGChartz it has sold 6.7 million LTD, I won't take that as gospel personally, so it's barely moved a few hundred thousand in 4 months. I don't expect a huge amount more to be sold until smash comes out. After that, I don't see it selling 6 million a year for the next 3 years and I see it being replaced in 2016 anyways.



Lucas-Rio said:
It will beat the GC by having a longer life.

25-30 millions seem the total it will reach. Nintendo will probably have a great holiday season with Smash Bros and the continued sales of Mario Kart 8. A price cut would also do wonders.


I agree on the price cut. I read what was the initial estimated cost of production for each unit and if memory serves it was like $228. That was 2012. I am guessing that figure has had to come down a bit since. Imagine an October price cut of $100 then Smas Bros. I would bet ANYTHING that would put them back on the playing field for real! Look what it did for 3DS!! It would undoubtedly signal that Nintendo is pulling out all the stops to compete. The inverse is if they don't you may have  wonder if they don't think it truly will ever fully compete. They will ride it out at current pricing getting as much return as they can. I already own it so it won't mean a lower price for me, but I want to see a true valiant effort. It looks like they are doing all they can with games and amiibo, but all that coupled with a huge statement price lowering like $100 would be enormous. $199 to parents and grandparents next to $399 would be insanely hard to resist. 

PLEASE NINTENDO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



CGI-Quality said:
phaedruss said:


It could but I highly doubt it. I agree with a lot of people that say this will be the peak year for wii u not next year. The Wii U has been sitting at 6.17, or 6.18, million shipped since March. According to VGChartz it has sold 6.7 million LTD, I won't take that as gospel personally, so it's barely moved a few hundred thousand in 4 months. I don't expect a huge amount more to be sold until smash comes out. After that, I don't see it selling 6 million a year for the next 3 years and I see it being replaced in 2016 anyways.

Then where will it rest, in your view?


It seems to me 25 million is really optimistic, that's more than Gamecube and the Wii U isn't even close to Gamecube. 15-18 million maybe? Hard to say beyond that. Maybe 20.



ExplodingBlock said:
outlawauron said:
ExplodingBlock said:
Wii U got better exclusives than GC and will probably have a longer life
At the end of 2015 there really should be no reason for a Nintendo fan to not have a Wii U :?

Wat. This isn't close to being true. Not yet at least.

Mario Kart 8>Double Dash

SmashU???Melee

3D World>Sunshine

Tropical Freeze>Jungle Beat

Pikmin 1&2>Pikmin 3 (Yes I know)

WWHD+Zelda U>Wind Waker+Four Swords Adventure

Hey it is my opinion not yours :/

DONT LET THE NOSTALGIA OVERCOME YOU

MK8 makes me rage like no other. It is not a well balanced game. I also hate myself for spending 100 bucks on fucking controllers to play it. I just...that game is a mess for me. Idk.

DK: Jungle Beat is not a real DK game. There hasn't been a real DK game since 1999. Edit: DKC Returns notwithstanding.