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Forums - Gaming Discussion - You predict again 15 million of Wii U lifetime? O_O

torok on 21 July 2014
DerNebel said:

So basically what you're saying is all of Sonys games aside from UC won't be big but Splatoon might be because, shooter? And you're just ignoring all the third party games coming to PS4 but not Wii U like the Witcher, Batman and maybe the Division? That is even ignoring unannounced games on PS4 like the GG or MM new IP of which I'm honestly pretty sure that at least one will see the light of day in 2015.

What I'm trying to say is that the Wii U has by no stretch of the imagination easily the best lineup of 2015.


I think Destiny will make people lower their estimates again.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

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TheLegendaryWolf on 21 July 2014
phaedruss said:
TheLegendaryWolf said:
phaedruss said:

Bloodborne is bigger than any of the games you listed, including splatoon. I bet it will be bigger than Zelda U as well.


Really? The scale of the game doesn't equal sales, not by a long shot. It will always depend on marketing and advertising of the game.


Didn't mean scale, I meant big in terms of hype and sales. As a big PS4 exclusive I think it will do much better than previous souls games beating Skyward Sword numbers easily which I expect Skyward Sword is about how Zelda U will do.

Motion Controls being the only control scheme drove Skyward Sword to sell less than it should have. Zelda U will not force the Wiimote + Nunchuck given the negative sales impact of most Wiimote only games on the Wii not directed towards casuals.



Welfare on 21 July 2014

Maybe not 15 million, but still below Gamecube. Wii U is still tracking WAY below the Gamecube in the US, and was only able to beat its sales in one month, June, and barely at that. Japan sales are tracking lower IIRC, and Europe as well. Just because It has had a good month, it doesn't mean it'll end over 20 million.

Just like the Gamecube, the Wii U has very little 3rd party support. With only 1st party games to look forward to, the Wii U will be mainly selling to Nintendo fans. Every generation so far, sans Wii, has shown that even nintendo fans are striking in numbers.

US holiday seasons will be favouring Sony and MS more than Nintendo (besides the 3DS), Europe will still be Sonlyland, and Japan home console sales are already bad.

20 million is wishful thinking.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

DerNebel on 21 July 2014
torok said:
DerNebel said:
 

So basically what you're saying is all of Sonys games aside from UC won't be big but Splatoon might be because, shooter? And you're just ignoring all the third party games coming to PS4 but not Wii U like the Witcher, Batman and maybe the Division? That is even ignoring unannounced games on PS4 like the GG or MM new IP of which I'm honestly pretty sure that at least one will see the light of day in 2015.

What I'm trying to say is that the Wii U has by no stretch of the imagination easily the best lineup of 2015.


I think Destiny will make people lower their estimates again.

?

What do you mean? Lower their estimates for the Wii Us software lineup?



VanceIX on 21 July 2014

I think 20-25M is likely, with 30M not completely out of the question. It's been my original prediction from the start.



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Xbox One - PS4 - Wii U - PC

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torok on 21 July 2014
DerNebel said:

?

What do you mean? Lower their estimates for the Wii Us software lineup?


Yes. I think people got overly optimistic with MK8. It's a heavy hitter and has good legs. PS4 and X1 are in a games drought. So Wii U's gap with them is smaller and people start to think it will do LTD numbers closer to them. Probably the blockbusters in the end of the year will tone down the estimates a lot by chaging the weekly gap. I'm counting on Destiny as the biggest game of them.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

Soundwave on 21 July 2014

Wii U is still trending very far below the GCN even for this year with the Mario Kart 8 bump

GCN (2003): 721k YTD (through June NPD)

Wii U (2014): 448k YTD (through June NPD)

Lets not get too carried away here. It's also still firmly no.3 in the June NPD even with MK8.

I think leaving the GamePad in the box has been a mistake, even after E3 after being shown Miyamoto's GamePad concepts, it seems pretty clear to me that Nintendo really doesn't have many good ideas for the concept, even when they're trying to force it. 

And Splatoon it seems to me would work probably even better with the Wiimote + nunchaku. 

I dunno. I think dropping the GamePad, but retaining a cheap NFC reader for Amiibo probably would've been the better way to go. 



KLXVER on 21 July 2014
DerNebel said:
torok said:
DerNebel said:
 

So basically what you're saying is all of Sonys games aside from UC won't be big but Splatoon might be because, shooter? And you're just ignoring all the third party games coming to PS4 but not Wii U like the Witcher, Batman and maybe the Division? That is even ignoring unannounced games on PS4 like the GG or MM new IP of which I'm honestly pretty sure that at least one will see the light of day in 2015.

What I'm trying to say is that the Wii U has by no stretch of the imagination easily the best lineup of 2015.


I think Destiny will make people lower their estimates again.

?

What do you mean? Lower their estimates for the Wii Us software lineup?


Yep. After Destiny Ill probably remove Kirby and the Rainbow Curse and The Devils Third from my memory of what will be out that year...



phaedruss on 21 July 2014
Soundwave said:

Wii U is still trending very far below the GCN even for this year with the Mario Kart 8 bump

GCN (2003): 721k YTD (through June NPD)

Wii U (2014): 448k YTD (through June NPD)

Lets not get too carried away here. It's also still firmly no.3 in the June NPD even with MK8.

I think leaving the GamePad in the box has been a mistake, even after E3 after being shown Miyamoto's GamePad concepts, it seems pretty clear to me that Nintendo really doesn't have many good ideas for the concept, even when they're trying to force it. 

And Splatoon it seems to me would work probably even better with the Wiimote + nunchaku. 

I dunno. I think dropping the GamePad, but retaining a cheap NFC reader for Amiibo probably would've been the better way to go. 


Not to mention GCN was probably doing better in Japan back in the day than the Wii U is now, anyone have numbers on that?



DialgaMarine on 21 July 2014
LipeJJ said:
DialgaMarine said:
LipeJJ said:
It'll pass 30M, I'm sure. Amiibo and Smash will make a huge impact. Plus, Wii U-2015 easily has the best line up.

 Would you mind filling me in? Besides Zelda, what other AAA titles are coming to Wii-U in 2015? This is just my opinion, but Bloodborne and Uncharted 4 already give PS4 the edge in 2015, and that's not even including The Order, and all the other potential titles releasing for the console in 2015.


Bloodborne is a niche game like Xenoblade Chronicles X will be. Plus, Wii U will have Splatoon, a multiplayer focused shooter made by one of their best teams, that can be big. Like you said, The Order won't be any big, just think of how much hype infamous SS had and how that turned out to sell (1.4M currently). And this kind of game that sells 1-2M the Wii U will be filled with next year: Yoshi's Woolly World, Xenoblade, Kirby,  Mario Maker, Some amiibo games, etc.

 

And there's still Zelda.

 The Order won't be as big as Uncharted 4, but it should easily outsell anything you listed. Splatoon, I really can't see as a big multi-million seller. I'm surprised anyone is hyping Yoshi. Xenoblade, I feel Nintendo announced waaaay too early, and now it seems to have lost a lot of hype. Amiibo seems to be trying to steal the Skylanders/ Disney Infinity audience which, unless it's somehow that awesome, it'll fail at that goal miserably.

I see what you're saying with Nintendo having a strong 2015 lineup, but it's probably nothing that will change the Wii-U's fate.





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