If WiiU also had Destiny coming, then maybe... but Mario and Smash alone will not out perform XBO + 3rd party

In their right mind? Like the idea is just crazy to even think about? Now that is ridiculous. Minor framerate or resolution differences aside from PS4 versions, which don't even matter to the average consumer, are a edge over a WiiU no matter how you slice it. Watch Dogs is a PS4 pretend exclusive, something Sony heavily invested in to only benefit PS4.

Well WiiU does have Smash, which is a beast itself, but I can't help but think the 3ds version will steal some thunder. I know me and some buddies are buying it for that, since we own a 3ds and are all reluctant to buy a WiiU just for the game. And as for Project Spark, they are releasing the game at retail for $40 (40 worth of in-game content), and is certainly up there with creative world building tech, especially in the console space.

Yes, no one in their right mind would pay the exact same price for less when given the option. It has better resolution, better frame rate, and better exclusive content, a trend which continues with Destiny. There is literally zero reason to ever buy an XB1 over PS4 for the purpose of third party games.

Saying that it's only slightly worse is not a reason to choose XB1 over PS4 in this situation.

Oh, then you misunderstood. I was saying that stuff doesn't matter if one was picking between a X1 or a WiiU. 3rd party games would give X1 an edge over WiiU regardless.

if it does it wont happen this year.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=187272&page=1#

They'd give it an edge, but not much. If someone's looking for a next gen consoles to play third party games, they'd likely get a PS4. If someone already owns a PS4 and is looking for a second option, the Wii U is the best bet. The only real reason to get an X1 is if you really just can't live without Halo. 

Sure, Halo is the only exclusive for Xbone that is worth it... *sigh*

EVERY console this gen has followed a trend. Strong initial sales, an abrupt fall in sales, and a slow recovery. The PS4 demonstrates this the least, and Nintendo's hardware has shown it the most, but every console shows this pattern.

Consequently, I have to conclude that the X1 and the Wii U are going to continue following this trend, except that because the Wii U launched first, it is on the recovery part of the curve, while the X1 has just now hit the falling sales part. The X1's unbundling and price drop will keep it from having a terrible Christmas, but Nintendo and Sony will have solid sales. Come next year most developers will see good reasons to go exclusive PS4 to fully use the power or exclusive Wii U to get the gamepad (or shortcut the visual production values).  Meanwhile the North American Shooter market will only attract the biggest games to go multiplatform with the X1. That will spell a slow and painful death for the X1 coming to a head some time in 2016 or 2017. 

Plenty of time for Microsoft to do something, but still a bad direction.

For a mainstream average joe? Absolutely, it's the only game with any system selling capacity outside maybe Gears, but that's 2016 so it's laregly irrelevant right now.