EVERY console this gen has followed a trend. Strong initial sales, an abrupt fall in sales, and a slow recovery. The PS4 demonstrates this the least, and Nintendo's hardware has shown it the most, but every console shows this pattern.
Consequently, I have to conclude that the X1 and the Wii U are going to continue following this trend, except that because the Wii U launched first, it is on the recovery part of the curve, while the X1 has just now hit the falling sales part. The X1's unbundling and price drop will keep it from having a terrible Christmas, but Nintendo and Sony will have solid sales. Come next year most developers will see good reasons to go exclusive PS4 to fully use the power or exclusive Wii U to get the gamepad (or shortcut the visual production values). Meanwhile the North American Shooter market will only attract the biggest games to go multiplatform with the X1. That will spell a slow and painful death for the X1 coming to a head some time in 2016 or 2017.
Plenty of time for Microsoft to do something, but still a bad direction.
