Ah sales predictions. They can be so hard to get right. Not only do you have to predict sales of consoles but you have to take account of the company’s behavior. You can have everything right but your prediction will be wrong if you don't take account what a company will do. Anyway for the many years I have been on this site (5 years :P) I have yet made a prediction. Shame really. This is where it ends.
MY PREDICTION: 8th Generation HOME console sales will be closer to 5th generation total than 6th generation. Meaning total sales will be closer to 5th generation's 140 million than 6th generation's 200 million
Justification for my prediction: The Home console market will easily miss 6th generation totals. How do I know? Well for starters the PS4 and Xbox One will have to sell about 80 million each to reach the 160 million sold PS2's. The PS3 and Xbox 360 was only BARELY able to make that with about a total of a little over 160 million (164? right now I think) for the HD twins. The gen 6 number does not include GC or Xbox numbers. That would bring the total to 200 million. Granted the PS2 sold for a long time after the intial generation ended. The HD twins will probably end up with about 175 million together. Here is why this is important
The PS4 will have no doubt on passing 60 million. However Xbox one is not gurreteened that number and especially not Wii U (No offense Nintendo but you still make good games and is my favorite console maker). Combined they will not outsell the PS2 numbers. The systems will not have a long generation like last time or peak so late. (The HD twins peaked at about 5 to 6 years old. This is unheard prior to any past console. Including PS2)
According to my predictions The generation would have
PS4: 65 million Xbone:30 million Wii U: 15 million. Total: 110 million
Honestly those totals are horrible so let's be more optimistic
PS4: 80 million Xbone: 40 million Wii U:25 million Total:150 million
Again this seems the most optimistic prediction I can put up. Since every generation lasts about 5 to 6 years. I expect the PS4 to do about 10 mil a year. About 8-12 million a year. For Xbone I see about 5-8 million a year. Wii U will be between 3-6 million a year. Of course this by predicting the current trend and taking note of future years.
How to tell if I am right or wrong on this prediction: 6th Generation sales are 200 million. 5th generation is about 140 million. The mid point is 170 million units. In order for me to be right, sales have to be UNDER 170 million.
The so called counter arguments (Sorry this is mandatory)
"But the Super HD Twins are selling faster than the HD twins!" So? The 3DS was beating the DS on their first year. Wii was trending above PS2. Yet we all know nether will out sell the DS or PS2.
"This generation will last longer!" No, MS and Nintendo will probably try to get the jump on Sony next time and launch a little early. (5 years?) They probably both know they won't win this generation and will try to get an early lead for the next one.
Closing statements- Yes I believe the PSP's lifetime sales will outsell them all mwhahaha! Also if you disagree with me POST your lifetime sales and reason stating why!