My analysis on the concept...
Positives? Hmmm, most of this screams "negative" to me regarding just one device. IT could benefit those who don't want both a console and a handheld from Nintendo, one device, one focus, throw all of Nintendo's developers to that one device, sounds like a simple plan, but that's not what they're gonna do. They can't support two devices with DIFFERENT architectures, they will do better if their handheld and console both had the same architecture. What do you mean by "one platform"? They're going to unite both handheld and console into one platform development environment, but they will still be separate entities. In fact, Iwata clearly talked of perhaps even "increasing form factors", which is contradictory of your idea of only one device:
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Iwata said:
Still, I am not sure if the form factor will be integrated. In contrast, the number of form factors might increase. Currently we can only provide two form factors because if we had three or four different architectures, we would face serious shortages of software on every platform.
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Iwata uses the phrase "form factors" to describe the devices, currently they have two, Nintendo 3DS and Wii U, which both have different architectures, hence different platforms. Having more would definitely kill them on the software front, and two isn't doing them any good without a Wii Sports / DS-like phenomenon, or while they have issues selling to the public. The fact that Iwata is strongly hinting at having MORE form factors (MORE devices) leads one to believe that they're not going for one device this time. How many devices will they have? Who knows. They're integrating platforms, and they have brought together their handheld and console development divisions. But, that doesn't mean it will mean "one" device, this is what Iwata means:
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Iwata said:
What we mean by integrating platforms is not integrating handhelds devices and home consoles to make only one machine. What we are aiming at is to integrate the architecture to form a common basis for software development so that we can make software assets more transferrable, and operating systems and their build-in applications more portable, regardless of form factor or performance of each platform. They will also work to avoid software lineup shortages or software development delays which tend to happen just after the launch of new hardware.
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Does this mean there will cease to be 2 Zeldas, 2 Metroids (lol), 2 Kirby's? No, there will likely still be 2 Mario's, 2 Mario Karts, 2 3D Zeldas, 2 this and 2 that plus whatever new stuff they come up with. Let's face it, these games still sell, a lot (with respect to the hardware sales). Mario Kart Wii sold 30+ million, Mario Kart DS sold 22+ million, Mario Kart 7 is nearing 10 million, and Mario Kart 8 is already over 2 million, they aren't going to just toss these essentially "free" sales aside, they'll probably just sell the next one three years later like they have been doing. (Mario Kart: 2005 DS, 2008 Wii, 2011 3DS, 2014 Wii U.....2017 4DS). With the combined architecture, they can re-use assets for either the next game of that series, or as a baseline for a different game of a different series. Either way, development for titles will be much easier with the transfer of assets between handheld(s) and console(s). The best part? They're aiming to do this, regardless of what the specs are, so "specs-wise" they'll probably still be in different leagues in terms of raw power, the differences will likely resemble the difference in power between 3DS and Wii U, but probably much closer for compatibility reasons.
With a change in their hardware/software strategy, you also have to consider the company as a whole, the entire business. You're cutting their hardware revenue streams, how will they compensate for this loss of revenue? Will they REALLY increase software sales enough to compensate for the loss of consoles? Let's not imagine another DS or Wii situation, that's not happening for the next generation, which is the only way for them to have just one device, and be more successful than either now, or during the 6th generation. We love chartz, so here's one I made. Let's have several takes of each generation starting from the Gamecube (all Nintendo's figures from their fiscal-year-end reports)
| Year (monetary values in Billions of Yen) |
2002 |
2003 |
2008 |
2009 |
2013 |
2014 |
| Home Console Hardware |
99 |
101 |
499 |
617 |
136 |
89 |
| Handheld Hardware |
189 |
132 |
467 |
426 |
227 |
201 |
| Total (including accessories, etc) |
315 |
275 |
1076 |
1159 |
396 |
316 |
| Home Console Software |
63 |
99 |
247 |
400 |
77 |
64 |
| Handheld Software |
164 |
123 |
332 |
260 |
144 |
167 |
| Total (including 3rd Party royalties, content income, etc) |
236 |
227 |
592 |
675 |
237 |
253 |
Historically, there are times where the console would be EXTREMELY close to the revenue from handhelds, despite selling MUCH less units. 2003 is quite interesting, they had Gameboy Advance and the SP, selling a total of 17.5 million hardware units, earning them revenue of 132 Billion Yen. Gamecube during that same time period, sold 5.02 million hardware units, and that brought them revenue of 101 Billion Yen. Their Handheld division sold almost 3.5 more hardware units than the console division, yet it only brought them 24% more revenue compared to the console division. If they play their cards right, Nintendo can launch their next home console ready with streams of consistant releases, and reach higher numbers than that of the Gamecube, that is, if it doesn't launch with the issues that plagued the GC. And if their next handheld sells similarly to 3DS (without the screw ups of the first 5 months, so probably better), the numbers between Console and Handheld hardware revenue could in fact be very close. Hardware revenue for console is not something you'd just remove without big losses. Don't count on QoL to compensate, that has yet to be put to the test and will be a separate entity within Nintendo, aside from their video game business.
I've noticed that you also referred to Nintendo's Hardware division as "borderline irrelevant" now. Well, 153 billion yen is NOT an irrelevent value (not including accessories, 3rd party royalties, etc). 3.94 Million Home Console Hardware has been sold in for the fiscal year ending March 2014 (2.7 Million Wii U, and 1.2 Million Wii), that has brought 153 billion yen of revenue. During the same time period, 12.37 million Handheld Hardware has sold in for this fiscal year (0.12 Million DS, 12.3 Million 3DS) bringing Nintendo 368 Billion Yen (recall that they had big releases like Pokemon, which probably has a pretty big portion of the total Handheld Software revenue). Handheld hardware has sold 3.13 times more units than Home Console hardware, yet that brought 2.4 times more revenue than the Home Console business (recall that Wii is dying, and Wii U is rather expensive). In other words, they receive more revenue per home console sale than they do per Handheld sale. If Wii U were doing better than Gamecube (and if it weren't sold for a loss), those revenue numbers would be much closer to eachother, and are definitely not worth just dismissing.
As for the power of the console, have they ever (aside from Gamecube to Wii) NOT had a somewhat large leap in graphics technology for the successor of their consoles? Recall some reactions Nintendo's own developers had when they first developed for Wii U, they liked the increased power compared to Wii. Miyamoto in particular noted the see-through pipes in 3D World looking better at higher resolutions than if they were to do it with Wii. He also comments on "technological advances" in terms of specs right before Wii U released, and that they don't completely ignore that. In other words, they're not going to just sit still at Wii U-level specs. I think we can stay assured that there will be a minimum of 2 devices for the 9th Generation from Nintendo, and they'll probably be supported to their own accords. They may share similar games, but in order to keep each a separate entity, they'll need to be experiences you can't get on the other device, otherwise what would be the incentive to buy the other device after you have one with similar content?