There is a pretty high possibility that Gears2 will disappoint. Epic's last game UTIII was a disappointment, and I think Gears2 will be as well. I see Gears2 selling around 4-4.5M. I see MGS4 selling 5-5.5M.

Gears of War 2

MGS4 will release in June 08,while GOW 2 will release in Nov. 08 so i think think lifetime sales of MGS4 will b more but first week sales may be close because Resistance 2 comes out in Nov 08,too. But,we'll have to wait and see.

Gears 2

Im at the edge of saying that a large portion of PS3 owners are hardcore MGS4 fans. I could see a high precentage of the install basebuy MGS4 at launch.

Same is probable for the 360 fanbase with Gears.

To be honest, I cant even make a shot at it. Alot of factors walk into the prediction like how many people rented Gears after release or bought it used at any game shop. And that developes into if those people actually liked it or not. If so, then Gears1 numbers may or may not be surpassed by Gears2.

"""Exactly. This is the pattern that series games always follow over the course of a console generation. The first one is revolutionary, a showpiece for the system, it gets hyped to no end and sells huge. The later ones just tweak the formula a bit, and while they may be superior, they very rarely match the sales of the first. When a next-gen version comes along, sales shoot up again and the cycle repeats. The "decline" in FF Soriku cites is actually another perfect example of this.

MGS4 will sell more than MGS3. Probably a lot more, unless it's really bad. It might even end up being the best seller in the series -- it's certainly the most hyped, and it's by far the most important PS3 game on the horizon.

Also, a lot of people are mentioning install bases and attach rates, but if there's one thing that sales history has shown, it's that these mean almost nothing. The games mentioned above are a great example: sales stayed level or even declined as the install base grew. And there's never been a major difference between games sold at different points in a system's life: a game launched when a system has a 100m install base certainly doesn't sell 100 times more than one launched when it had a 1m install base. There's almost no correlation at all on a system with a growing userbase.

Not that I'm saying any of this means MGS4 will outsell GeoW2. I don't think it's at all obvious which is going to sell more, and I wouldn't want to try to call it. The only bet I'd be willing to take is that MGS4 will do better than MGS3."""


==> +1 for you Borkachev,

MGS3 was a prequel, whereas MGS4 will be the direct sequel to MGS2. Also, you have to include the sales of MGS3: Subsistence when tallying MGS3's total sales. MGS3:S sold an additional 470k, not including European numbers (MGS's biggest market) because they have not yet been posted.

And, as others have said, MGS4 will be the first "next-gen" MGS, getting a sales boost as such.

OT: I think that MGS4 will outsell Gears 2.

Vgchartz numbers are all pretty far off on MGS games. Some of you may be surprised.

Gears 2, again. MGS4 will likely sell 3-5 million, but  the Gears phenomenon will just grow just as Halo did.

MGS4 for WW sales. Gears might beat MGS4 in the US.