Wow, I feel dumb. I've been too poor to afford Mario Kart since Double Dash, where only Starman could tank it, and that was impossible to get while in first place. I've been playing off of friends DS's and 3DS's with Download Play, and I'm super psyched to finally come back, on what looks like the best entry to the series yet. The series has really evolved since DD!

While your point that item strategy becomes more important is valid, staying in the lead isn't about luck. It's about being skilled enough to use all the advantages of being first to pile on more lead time while everybody else fights amongst themselves. The best players can build up enough of a lead that it takes a streak of blue shells to dethrone them.

@Einsam

If the blue shell is essential for balance as one of the few weapons that can attack the leader, I don't see how nerfing that weapon's effect on the leader and adding it as yet another hazard for everybody else improves balance. Getting into second or third is almost always one or two lucky items away. It's the leader who can build an insurmountable lead.

Reviews are of course complaining about too many blue shells now, because the only balanced responses to a weaker blue shell is to either add more weapons that target the leader (which would only get vilified as much as the blue shell), nullify some of the leader's many advantages, or simply make the blue shell more common.

I will agree that there was no reason to make blue shells attack other people on the way. I hope it's nothing more than an incidental hit, as opposed to it targeting everyone it can, and that it only causes a small spinout to anyone that isn't the first place target. I also think blue shells should be most common among the middle ranks, since attacking first place should be the least of last place's concerns, and wouldn't help them much at all. It should be proportionately more common the farther up you get, being most common in second place. After all, stars are more common in last place, where they're needed most, so blue shells should be most common where they're needed most too. 1st place should get mostly booby traps like the false block and banana peel, and the occassional defense item, because that's what they need. Another leader targeting weapon might be good, but only if it found a good way to differentiate itself from the blue shell, which I'm not sure they could do. Perhaps a better idea would be to have first place specific hazards, where certain hazards spawn based on the position of the person in first place, so as to be most likely to affect them specifically. Would negate some of the "first place is the easiest place to be" without the "oh come on, they just got lucky" aspect of the leader targeting item.

Any weapon can attack the leader. Against evenly skilled opponents, you're not often going to be getting far enough ahead of them to be out of range of everything but the Blue Shell. Heck it'll be a challenge just getting into first! Plus as you said, staying in the lead takes skill, mostly! Mushroom dodging and such tactics also require skills, so you should be rewarded for them just the same! Also, just because one is in first place doesn't mean that person should auto die. They should have a fighting chance to maintain their lead, and that's the keyword here, chance. There's no end all strategy here. Everything has counters! Holding onto a Mushroom/Star/Bullet Bill/Super Horn definitely is not full proof, a two Blue Shells can break through that, as can any Red Shells. Avoiding the Blue Shell by dropping out of first wont guarantee victory either, as that allows other racers to catch up, and who knows how long the Blue Shell holder will wait before using it. 

Sounding good! I don't think I've ever dodged a blue shell with a mushroom but in MKDS I powerslided away from them all the time. Obviously with snaking gone that's impossible.

All of the above.  Driving mid-pack in any Mario Kart is a hectic experience, you take it from all sides and you often can't drive an optimum line, limiting your chances of catching the front runners.  Getting into first place early is by far the easiest and most reliable way of winning, assuming you actually have driving skill to back it up.

Blue shells keep you in touch with the rest of the pack or at least give those in the first few places (who rarely have good enough weapons to take out first place themselves) a fighting chance to the finish.  Otherwise Mario Kart would devolve into a hundred metre dash to get into first place with the weapons, for the most part, only impacting the lower placings.

I never really minded blue shells. As people say they're important for balancing. They shake things up in a race and if you're the most skilled player you'll win most races. You'll just have a more interesting and challenging time doing it.

Wow, I'm surprised at those poll results!

Thank god.

Wow, you are so right. I have never noticed that but I absolutely agree.