I guess I just don't find that line of reasoning convincing. If you're a fan of Halo, for example, Halo 5 might be worth a dozen Uncharteds. Or, if you're a God of War buff, you might be willing to trade all of Nintendo's first party content for a GOW sequel. I'm just not buying the line that people are buying X or Y console because the library is so big and diverse. According to this site, the highest tie-ratio of all time is 11 games. Most people buy a console because of a few games that look good to them, end up buying 8 or 10 games, and move on with their lives.

Bolded: That is absolutely correct, but you have to realize that not all owners of a console are like that, contrary to what forums may suggest most people actually don't own a certain console because they're crazy about its first party offering. Or that is at least the case with the Xbox and PS, most people buy those for multiplats, Nintendo consoles sell mostly on first party stuff and how wrong that can go is well illustrated by the Wii U.

To rephrase my point, since I maybe didn't word it very well: Since the libraries of the X1 and PS4 are going to be much much bigger and more diverse than the Wii Us, a much larger number of people will find the 8-10 games they personally want in the generation on those systems as well and will thus decide to get one of those consoles. Hope that makes more sense.