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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Ethomaz's Dismantling the Myths: Amazon.com's Best Sellers is Not Accurate to the Predict Overall Hardware Sales in US (Checking: Accuracy with Software)

Max King of the Wild said:
only problem Amazon faces is with different skus. when its one vs one it would be easier to see the winner

I'm glad they put together the bundles before the next-gen launch... remember in mid 2013 when PS4 had 5 bundles SKU in the TOP30? They reorganized to better.



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ethomaz said:
Dark_Feanor said:
It might show if one is selling more or less than the other.

But you can´t determine the extent of one lead based on that chart NOR estimate the total sales for a given time.

Those assumptions failed time and time again.

Who said sales numbers? It reflect the position of the consoles sales in US... not the units sold.

Eg. You can have the #1 selling 100k units and the #2 selling 99k units or #1 selling 100k units and the #2 selling 1k units... both are true and reflected in the ranking but the difference bettwen the two cases are huge in units sales.


Yes, and we don´t know the difference on any case.

But I was talking about adding 999 units to your chart and than see the minut-to-minute sales then estrapolate those ratio to a regular supply situation.



So it only got 4/5 months right. November was wrong.

Let's say it got December wrong too. You'd say you could exclude that because "holidays".
Or let's say it got January wrong. You'd say you could exclude that because it's "right after holidays"

4 data points after you've excluded 1 for an arbitrary reason is not good data and doesn't show reliability.



gergroy said:
If it acurately reflected the position of every console, I might agree with you, but you have only used two consoles. What happens when you look at 360, ps3, 3ds, etc. ?

These old consoles didn't shows in the TOP100 so I can't check...



Except for the fact that we have YEARS of data of this not being the case. For example, at one point in one december Gamecube was on Amazon's best seller list ahead of the Wii, 360 and PS3.

It of course did not chart on NPD.


And of course... We've got Amazons words themselves.

The Amazon Best Sellers calculation is based on Amazon.com sales and is updated hourly to reflect recent and historical sales of every item sold on Amazon.com.

"While the Amazon Best Sellers list is a good indicator of how well a product is selling overall, it doesn't always indicate how well an item is selling among other similar items."

http://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=525376




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I think it depends on how big is the disparity in the best seller's list between the PS4 and XOne. If it's small, we don't know for sure which system has outsold which. However, if it's a huge disparity, then it's plausible that for sure one console has outsold the other.



Soleron said:
So it only got 4/5 months right. November was wrong.

Let's say it got December wrong too. You'd say you could exclude that because "holidays".
Or let's say it got January wrong. You'd say you could exclude that because it's "right after holidays"

4 data points after you've excluded 1 for an arbitrary reason is not good data and doesn't show reliability.

November was not wrong.

When I checked the overall 2013 sales in the first week of December it showed PS4 > Xbone that means that the launch in November was bigger for PS4 than Xbone.

The ranking shows Xbone > PS4 in November because the preorders... you can loock that the PS4 SKU is in the TOP30 in June, July, August, September, etc.

No arbritary... preorder.

Look:  http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2013-07/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar

PS4 #5 in July

In November you can't buy a PS4 at Amazon anymore because all the stock was already sold in the previous months.



Kasz216 said:

Except for the fact that we have YEARS of data of this not being the case. For example, at one point in december Gamecube was on Amazon's best seller list ahead of the Wii, 360 and PS3.

It of course did not chart on NPD.


And of course... From Amazon's website itself...


The Amazon Best Sellers calculation is based on Amazon.com sales and is updated hourly to reflect recent and historical sales of every item sold on Amazon.com.

"While the Amazon Best Sellers list is a good indicator of how well a product is selling overall, it doesn't always indicate how well an item is selling among other similar items."

http://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=525376



he's not looking at the hourly charts.   he is looking at the monthly charts.  a monthly average is bound to be more accurate than an hourly average.



Kasz216 said:

Except for the fact that we have YEARS of data of this not being the case. For example, at one point in one december Gamecube was on Amazon's best seller list ahead of the Wii, 360 and PS3.

It of course did not chart on NPD.


And of course... We've got Amazons words themselves.

The Amazon Best Sellers calculation is based on Amazon.com sales and is updated hourly to reflect recent and historical sales of every item sold on Amazon.com.

"While the Amazon Best Sellers list is a good indicator of how well a product is selling overall, it doesn't always indicate how well an item is selling among other similar items."

http://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=525376


Can you check this same example using the Monthly chart, please.



kitler53 said:
Kasz216 said:

Except for the fact that we have YEARS of data of this not being the case. For example, at one point in december Gamecube was on Amazon's best seller list ahead of the Wii, 360 and PS3.

It of course did not chart on NPD.


And of course... From Amazon's website itself...


The Amazon Best Sellers calculation is based on Amazon.com sales and is updated hourly to reflect recent and historical sales of every item sold on Amazon.com.

"While the Amazon Best Sellers list is a good indicator of how well a product is selling overall, it doesn't always indicate how well an item is selling among other similar items."

http://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=525376



he's not looking at the hourly charts.   he is looking at the monthly charts.  a monthly average is bound to be more accurate than an hourly average.

Except it's calculated the same way.   It's not actual total sales.