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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Ethomaz's Dismantling the Myths: Amazon.com's Best Sellers is Not Accurate to the Predict Overall Hardware Sales in US (Checking: Accuracy with Software)

Kasz216 said:

I did.  I showed you their financials which showed their revenue for the game.

The charts aren't what you think they are.

Exactly... you didn't showed how much the game sold... just how much revenue the company had over the game... a game sold by $60 give a revenue of ~$10 per copy to the devs... I don't know how much they are receving per copy.

Example... if all the copies was sold at $14.99 and the revenue to the dev is $3 per copy... 530k copies was sold.

The chartz are cumulative sales over a period of time.



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BTW it was $2.49 in Amazon in January.

http://steamcommunity.com/app/225080/discussions/0/630800447174113249/

Now I'm sure it did big numbers in January.



ethomaz said:

Kasz216 said:

 

Exactly... you didn't showed how much the game sold... just how much revenue the company had over the game... a game sold by $60 give a revenue of ~$10 per copy to the devs... I don't know how much they are receving per copy.

Example... if all the copies was sold at $14,99 and the revenue to the dev is $3 per copy... 530k copies was sold.

The chartz are cumulative sales over a period of time.

We're talking PC sales here.

I know it's confusing because Brothers is also on many other systems... which I didn't even include because it's pretty laughable.

 

$250,000K Revenue for 4 months.

That's ~63,000 a month.

So unless they get less then a dollar a piece for each game they sell in revenue.... and like... a lot less.  Say a dime a piece?



ethomaz said:

BTW it was $2.49 in Amazon in January.

http://steamcommunity.com/app/225080/discussions/0/630800447174113249/

Now I'm sure it did big numbers in January.

 

Big numbers... on Amazon.  Where it was 2.49.     Everywhere else... not so much.   

This is where i've been trying to lead you.  I was hoping when you noticed that you'd put 2 and 2 together....

One of the many pitfalls of using one source of info is... retailers don't hold consitant prices across the board.    

Just like gamecube.  (Never did look back for that particular month, because i can't figure out how to do it monthly.)

Different sales, different conditions, different consumers...

 

using one website just doesn't work scientifically.   Hence why people pay for things like NPD.



Kasz216 said:

We're talking PC sales here.

I know it's confusing because Brothers is also on many other systems... which I didn't even include because it's pretty laughable.

 

$250,000K Revenue for 4 months.

That's ~63,000 a month.

So unless they get less then a dollar a piece for each game they sell in revenue.... and like... a lot less.  Say a dime a piece?

It is $250k revenue for a quarter (Out-Dec)... and yes the revinew for the devs are pretty low if the game is full $15.

BTW the game was $2.49 in Amazon in January.



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Kasz216 said:

Big numbers... on Amazon.  Where it was 2.49.     Everywhere else... not so much.   

This is where i've been trying to lead you.  I was hoping when you noticed that you'd put 2 and 2 together....

One of the many pitfalls of using one source of info is... retailers don't hold consitant prices across the board.    

Just like gamecube.  (Never did look back for that particular month, because i can't figure out how to do it monthly.)

Different sales, different conditions, different consumers...

 

using one website just doesn't work scientifically.   Hence why people pay for things like NPD.

If Amazon had big numbers that pushed the sales to 100k for example... if it sold 50k in previous month accross all retails... it will sell close to 150k this month... big numbers overall.

You can't disprove the OP.

Amazon is yet accurate with the ranking places for hardware... and after you pushed software I realise it is for software too.



ethomaz said:

If Amazon had big numbers that pushed the sales to 100k for example... if it sold 50k in previous month accross all retails... it will sell close to 150k this month... big numbers overall.

You can't disprove the OP.

Amazon is yet accurate with the ranking places for hardware... and after you pushed software I realise it is for software too.

 

Your numbers are FAR to optimistic, and your belief on how improtant a player Amazon is in the market is just outright wrong.

250,000 / 3 =  $~83,300  (Despite the fact you'd expect sales to be front loaded.)

So for an average 50K sales.

So you think for the 19.99 (Is what it started at) the game sold for.  They made $1.70  per copy sold.   Despite digital supposidly being better for developers then retial.

Well actually less since that's revenue shared with 360, and PS3.

Also, you think that Amazon can TRIPLE the sales of a game.  Despite the fact that Valve is by far the strongest market force in digital, and Amazon's digital market is known to be fairly insignficant.   (Hence why expansions into england focus on how much stronger a videogame retailer they are there.)

 

If I wanted to take it to the most absurb extreme I would of simply used Thief Gold.   Which was actually Free in Feburary if you entered a contest.  Even so, despite being Free I doubt it was downloaded nearly 1 Million times required to surpass PS4.

Different stores have different percentages of the market, right down to specific consoles.   The reason why the number seem to work out right now hardware wise is because it's the start of the generation.

 

With consoles, it's a lot easier to get "lucky", as there has been a fairly big gap... and your comparing a whole two.

 

 

 

One final one to illustrate, and if you don't get it at this point... fine.

http://www.joystiq.com/2014/03/13/february-npd-ps4-sells-more-xbox-one-leads-in-dollar-amount/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-02/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1

 

Xbone 250K,   Bravely Default 200K.    Bravely Default ahead in Amazon Rankings.

360 GTA >  PS3 GTA in NPD.   PS3 GTA> 360 GTA in Amazon.

 

Minecraft 360> Bravely Default in NPD.   In Amazon.  Bravley Default 6, Minecraft 25... and behind a  couple other games that didn't chart in the top 10.   Like FFX Remastered, Tomb Raider.  (Also Battlefield 3.  Which is digital download.)

 

You can't blindly trust one websites top sellers list for information.



I don't know about software but it certainly holds true for hardware.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


ethomaz said:

Though I agree with Amazon being a reasonably good indicator -- some strange stuff does happen in their best seller rankings from time to time that aren't reflected in this site's sales rankings (maybe undertracked?)

For example, I just checked the best sellers list now. Here's a few things that'll make you go WHA??

AC4 on WiiU #40

ZombiU WiiU #51

WiiU Mario and Luigi bundle #89

And some crazy old PC games

All these were recently discounted and may drop off the sale charts in the days to come.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Kasz216 said:

Your numbers are FAR to optimistic, and your belief on how improtant a player Amazon is in the market is just outright wrong.

250,000 / 3 =  $~83,300  (Despite the fact you'd expect sales to be front loaded.)

So for an average 50K sales.

So you think for the 19.99 (Is what it started at) the game sold for.  They made $1.70  per copy sold.   Despite digital supposidly being better for developers then retial.

Well actually less since that's revenue shared with 360, and PS3.

Also, you think that Amazon can TRIPLE the sales of a game.  Despite the fact that Valve is by far the strongest market force in digital, and Amazon's digital market is known to be fairly insignficant.   (Hence why expansions into england focus on how much stronger a videogame retailer they are there.)

 

If I wanted to take it to the most absurb extreme I would of simply used Thief Gold.   Which was actually Free in Feburary if you entered a contest.  Even so, despite being Free I doubt it was downloaded nearly 1 Million times required to surpass PS4.

Different stores have different percentages of the market, right down to specific consoles.   The reason why the number seem to work out right now hardware wise is because it's the start of the generation.

 

With consoles, it's a lot easier to get "lucky", as there has been a fairly big gap... and your comparing a whole two.

 

 

 

One final one to illustrate, and if you don't get it at this point... fine.

http://www.joystiq.com/2014/03/13/february-npd-ps4-sells-more-xbox-one-leads-in-dollar-amount/

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-02/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1

 

Xbone 250K,   Bravely Default 200K.    Bravely Default ahead in Amazon Rankings.

360 GTA >  PS3 GTA in NPD.   PS3 GTA> 360 GTA in Amazon.

 

Minecraft 360> Bravely Default in NPD.   In Amazon.  Bravley Default 6, Minecraft 25... and behind a  couple other games that didn't chart in the top 10.   Like FFX Remastered, Tomb Raider.  (Also Battlefield 3.  Which is digital download.)

 

You can't blindly trust one websites top sellers list for information.

One by one...

1. The Amzong Game at $2.49 was a digital code to Steam... it is the Valve after all.

2. You don't have any of these games sales (Thief, Brother: Tale of two Sons, etc)... no you are not proving nothing here.

3. The first good example... thanks.

Bravely Default sold more than 200k
Xbone sold 258k

Amazon Bravely Default: #8
Amazon Xbone: #23 and #71

That is what you are not getting... there are Multiples SKUs... and if the two Xbone SKUs outsold Bravely Default?

4. GTA V is good example and  you are right... Minecraft have two SKUs too but one of them is not in the TOP100.

 

See... it is accurate yet... over a lot of examples only one was wrong.

What did you don't get is that I said "accurate for Hardware" and you insisted in Software... that was cool because proved to me that Software is accurate too.

NPD April will come and we will see if it holds accurate again.

How many months you will need to undertand?