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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Man, Did Some People Get This Gen Wrong

vivster on 19 April 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
vivster said:

That tackles only one of my concerns and isn't even that clear cut. I don't think Sony can afford an unplanned pricecut of even $50. Even if the cost of producing the console drop they were still calculating with the original price, which means at 5 million sold consoles that would make a 250 million dent in the forecast for just one division of Sony. I don't think Sony is in a position to throw away money. They are not losing the war and they will not go to great lengths if a competitor is just catching up.


That's why it is planned. The $400 price wont stay for the generation. If MS doesn't try to cut their price and holds then Sony will probably naturally drop their price sometime in Sept next year. If MS tries to become competitive and cuts price then Sony rearranges their plans and moves it up to sometime in June to counter.

Price drops are not as simple as "well sony cut 50 dollars off and sold 5 million consoles so the lost 250mil dollars more than they would have" A lot of the times the boost in sales at the lower price off set the loss and actually creates more revenue and profit

Next year September is beyond my calculation. By that time the X1 has either caught up or Sony solidifid their lead. A cut well before that wouldn't make sense either. If they can't satisfy demand before that they won't benefit from additional sales because they cannot quell demand yet again.



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thismeintiel on 19 April 2014
vivster said:
Max King of the Wild said:
vivster said:

I'm not saying Halo will be the equalizer. As I said I'm expecting some other bombshells( massive pricecut, unexpected exclusives, killer apps, major screwups from Sony...)  between now and Halo that will get customers running for X1s. With Halo being the pinnacle because no exclusive game will push as many X1s as Halo will do. So if all of MS's strategies fail and Halo won't move enough consoles then I will scream victory for the PS4.(


Sony can easily price match unless MS really wants their investors to make some noise. Esram in XB1 offsets some cost DDR5 has over GDDR3. DDR5 will probably become cheaper faster. Especially since Ps4 is selling at a much faster rate than XB1. This means that estimated costs at the begining of the gen (when sony expect 5mil) are outdated and in fact cheaper to produce. If not cheaper to produce than no doubt the extra game and accessory sales would off set the losses. It is complete wishful thinking that MS can drop the price but Sony wouldnt be able to. The way I see that panning out is MS reacting by cutting the price. Sony sits and waits to see it's effect. If it has a minor effect Sony holds on price. If it cuts into sales more than Sony wants they ride out the holidays at the higher price to grab more sales at the higher price and probably wait to cut the cost next FY so it doesn't effect their financials and sustains sales during the slower time.

That tackles only one of my concerns and isn't even that clear cut. I don't think Sony can afford an unplanned pricecut of even $50. Even if the cost of producing the console drop they were still calculating with the original price, which means at 5 million sold consoles that would make a 250 million dent in the forecast for just one division of Sony. I don't think Sony is in a position to throw away money. They are not losing the war and they will not go to great lengths if a competitor is just catching up.

For me, a lot of concerns were addressed in March.  MS threw everything they had at Sony, but still lost.  Releasing their most hyped game for the year.  Check.  The game bundled free with the console.  Check.  $50 dollar (unofficial) pricecut around the time of the game's launch.  Check.  Massive ad campaign to push the game and console.  Check.  All this amounted to was a lower sales average per week than last month and Sony still being comfortably ahead.  And if what BenV was saying is true, then April is not going to be pretty for MS, either. 

Truthfully, what MS NEEDS to do if they want to win (maybe even just tie) the US is drop Kinect and drop the price to $349.  Of course, MS isn't going to be this drastic, otherwise investors will be livid.  That and they would have millions of Kinects just lying around with no one buying them.  The most I see is the current SKU dropping to $449 officially.  But, we have already seen that that won't do much.



 

thismeintiel on 19 April 2014
vivster said:
thismeintiel said:

See bolded.

Another fair enough for you. Though you should've used more extreme examples in the OP. There's plenty of them ;)

Lol.  Oh, I'm sure.  These are just the ones that I have come across, personally.  Actually, I should start bookmarking all the comments from people saying that the only reason the One is behind is because it is only available in 13 countries (even though that's not technically true) and are looking forward to One closing the gap once they are in those countries officially.  Nah. 



 

colafitte on 19 April 2014

This thread reminds me of another discussion in another thread with someone very sided with Microsoft when Infamous launched in US, where i made a prediction about PS4 beating Xbox One (i used the word "dominate"). I remember being loled with my prediction and for saying "i'm usually right" by this person (and until now i'm still right, because PS4 won March NPD and it seems it will win April too ).

I expect from him to accept the same LOLs from others with a sense of fair play....

Edit: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6177344



vivster on 19 April 2014
thismeintiel said:
vivster said:

That tackles only one of my concerns and isn't even that clear cut. I don't think Sony can afford an unplanned pricecut of even $50. Even if the cost of producing the console drop they were still calculating with the original price, which means at 5 million sold consoles that would make a 250 million dent in the forecast for just one division of Sony. I don't think Sony is in a position to throw away money. They are not losing the war and they will not go to great lengths if a competitor is just catching up.

For me, a lot of concerns were addressed in March.  MS threw everything they had at Sony, but still lost.  Releasing their most hyped game for the year.  Check.  The game bundled free with the console.  Check.  $50 dollar (unofficial) pricecut around the time of the game's launch.  Check.  Massive ad campaign to push the game and console.  Check.  All this amounted to was a lower sales average per week than last month and Sony still being comfortably ahead.  And if what BenV was saying is true, then April is not going to be pretty for MS, either.

Truthfully, what MS NEEDS to do if they want to win (maybe even just tie) the US is drop Kinect and drop the price to $349.  Of course, MS isn't going to be this drastic, otherwise investors will be livid.  That and they would have millions of Kinects just lying around with no one buying them.  The most I see is the current SKU dropping to $449 officially.  But, we have already seen that that won't do much.

I admit this NPD was a breather but we're not out of the woods yet. I don't think we have seen yet what MS is willing to do when backed into a corner.

Dropping the price via television subscription and market it as a cable box could do wonders in the US. And then there is China. I don't believe it yet but if they actually manage to release the console there this year and it's succesful it could turn the tide quickly. Not directly in the rest of the world but they would be able to announce bigger numbers which would give them more marketing power.

Let's just not be "those" guys and someone in the future make a thread out of our pompous behavior. There will be lots of opportunity to celebrate throughout this gen after we're over that first hill.



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Shinobi-san on 19 April 2014
Jazz2K said:
Shinobi-san said:

Agreed! I think we should have a lot more crow eating threads! Would bring a lot more people back to earth

Crow eating threads are always fun to read that's a given. When someone digs on old prediction threads to see everyone's predictions that is.

What we have here is an op that looked for specific posts from specific posters from a specific fanbase to make fun of their prediction.

Why no make threads about Shinobi-San failed predictions? It's the same.

I dont think i have any to be honest

But yeah not sure what you are expecting crow eating threads always go like this...they always have.



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BeElite on 19 April 2014
vivster said:

I admit this NPD was a breather but we're not out of the woods yet. I don't think we have seen yet what MS is willing to do when backed into a corner.

Dropping the price via television subscription and market it as a cable box could do wonders in the US. And then there is China. I don't believe it yet but if they actually manage to release the console there this year and it's succesful it could turn the tide quickly. Not directly in the rest of the world but they would be able to announce bigger numbers which would give them more marketing power.

Let's just not be "those" guys and someone in the future make a thread out of our pompous behavior. There will be lots of opportunity to celebrate throughout this gen after we're over that first hill.

X1 is not a cable box, nor would it work being sold or markted as one.   No legit cable provider would ever use it, unless MS pays em and in that case they might as well drop the price to 299 tommorow and lose money in a way that will actually work. 



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 19 April 2014
kowenicki said:

But yes I do think the ONE will beat the PS4 in the UK and US... you dont it seems.  How much do you think the PS4 will oblitearte the ONE by there?
ikcinewok said:

Really bored of hyperbole with zero substance or detail to accompany it.


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reggin_bolas on 19 April 2014

Can we stop with the overzealous moderation? You're essentially performing lobotomy on the community making the dialogue monotonous.

What's left is just precise scientific and politically correct language void of emotion and subtext.

Let people speak their passions and their opinions.

Edit: Have anyone seen the movie Equilibrium? It's premised on a future dystopian society where displays of emotions are considered crimes. It's really scary and sad at the same time to see the type of cultural bleach that's going on with this mod team. Seems like every controvertible topic has to be sterilized because heaven forbid we express our conflicting view points and feelings. 

I don't understand the social media policy of this site. Why even have forums if you're afraid of people freely and creatively exchanging ideas and opinions. Are you so shocked that language can be emotionally charged especially considering the traditional rivalry these products and companies have engendered? I don't get it. 



Max King of the Wild on 19 April 2014
reggin_bolas said:
Can we stop with the overzealous moderation? You're essentially performing lobotomy on the community making the dialogue monotonous.

What's left is just precise scientific and politically correct language void of emotion and subtext.

Let people speak their passions and their opinions.


I got a three week ban for "condescending tone" lol. I agree with you.