iceboy151 said:
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The situation is significantly more dire this time than the PS3's poor position last time.
Microsoft really fumbled the 360 internationally with the relatively small number of exclusives and poor marketing. It performed magnificently in the US and to large extent the UK, but Europe was not so great. Halo/Gears are more western in appeal. So PS3 had the advantage of getting a lot of the territories that Microsoft wasn't able to sew up.
This time around? They look to be on track to losing even in their previous strongholds, and getting outright blown away outside of US/UK. Numbers in some countries on an average week such as France and Germany are as bad as FIVE to ONE.
Further, if trends continue (and with more multiplats coming that will more likely than not look worse on the XB1) with players tending to want to buy the console that their friends already own for MP, they could be behind by 2 to 1 by the end of THIS year globally. Barring a miracle, it will be even worse through the end of 2015.
Financially that makes profitability on the XB1 platform much harder. It makes it less likely to get 3rd party exclusivity, because paying for that will get out of control pretty quickly. It will go like this :
Microsoft "Hey, company X, we want your new game to be only on the XB1"
Company X "Okay, well you have 9 million consoles sold, and your competitor has 18.5 million sold, so based on our market research, you will have to compensate us for the calculated attach rate for our title on that system"
Microsoft "How much is that?"
Company X "Well, we calculate that this huge title could sell 4 million copies on the PS4, and you will have to pay us $30 per potential lost sale"
Microsoft "A HUNDRED AND TWENTY MILLION DOLLARS? Okay, how about some exclusive DLC?"
Company X "Sure"
Nintendo knows how to play the 'extra' console game historically, and make money. Microsoft simply has no idea.