Yep, DRAM is sourced from the cheapest sources, and the price is cheapest for what is in mass production at the time. DDR3 will go up $/GB as DDR4 ramps up in consumer/business PCs and notebooks, as well as servers.
If DDR3 remained the standard, but underwent a new die process, then it would get even cheaper.
If Microsoft built their own fab facility for making DDR3, and sold the excess (perhaps buy out a cobwebbed facility from a bankrupt company), they could lower their costs there. It could actually be a brilliant move if done right. Sell it cheap under the Microsoft brand for PCs/Macs, as there will be demand for DDR3 for years to come, and use the cheap BoM cost to supply XB1 consoles.
However, that is exceedingly unlikely, so what will happen is MS will just have to pay market value for DDR3. And market value will go up as supply goes down.
From a DRAM manufacturer's perspective, when they re-tool to produce new memory standards, they need that new line to run at 100% capacity and to have an efficient sell-through to OEMs. Their life-blood is deals with Dell, HP, Apple, etc. As they have limited space and human resources, it makes little sense to continue producing parts that are not in demand by the major OEMs. And general PC volume absolutely dwarfs all consoles combined. An average PC/notebook these days has at least 4GB, average phones/tablets have 1-2GB, and these items sell by the BILLIONS yearly in totality. The PC parts market in contrast is quite tiny (selling ram OTC and online through Micro Center, Newegg, Fry's, Best Buy, etc). Upwards of 95% of PCs never even see a RAM upgrade due to user indifference, lack of budget, or otherwise (early failure, replaced with new machine and junked, etc).
I got a look at the BoM cost of the Xbox One, and the initial cost for their 8GB DDR3 was $60. If past trends continue (literally every generational change in memory standards has gone through this), that price will slowly inflate, or at best rise only moderately.
This could potentially happen to Sony with the GDDR5 as well, but that's certainly a good ways past the EOL of DDR3 as a mass-market DRAM standard. In all probability, GDDR5 will continue to be produced for at least 4 more years in volume.
HOWEVER :
What makes about 10 million times more sense than trying to source outdated DDR3 memory for the Xbox One, is a new revision that simply runs on DDR4. Trust me, they'll do that before they suffer rising DDR3 prices from constricted supply (basically every DDR3 fab is going to be converted to DDR4 for volume).
It should be a dawdle to accomplish, and they can match the bandwidth/latency to a fine enough degree that it will be imperceptible to the end user. It will be in the first revision of the console I would guess (Xbox One Slim, whatever). We are in x86 territory now, so it's not reinventing the wheel so long as you engineer it properly.