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Forums - Sales Discussion - If the X1 does not pass the Wii U by the end of this year, will you be shocked?

zorg1000 on 12 April 2014
DialgaMarine said:
Not really, considering 2 of Nintendo's biggest franchises will have released by year's end, while M$ doesn't really have any big exclusives on the cards beyond a potential Halo 2 remake. I sincerely doubt that'll sell consoles. Halo: CEA certainly didn't..


The difference with Halo Anniversary is that it released 6 years after 360 launch which already had multiple Halo games on it while this will be the first Halo game on One and is within the consoles first year so it has more potential to move hardware than Anniversary did, especially if they include a Halo 5 beta.



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kitler53 on 12 April 2014
torok said:
kitler53 said:
i don't know about shocked. wiiU has almost a 2M lead and xbone only outsold wiiU by 50k this week. 

Considering X1 sold 85K and Wii U sold 33K, that 50K is more than double, it's a big difference.

 

wiiU is at 4.11M.  xbone is at 5.96M.  this week wiiU sold 33.822k.  this week xbone sole 85.073k.

if wiiU stopped selling entirely then it would take 36 weeks for xbone to catch up to wiiU at the current sales difference.  correct the math to account for wiiU sells 33k each week (moving the goalpost forward each week) and that number jumps to 106 weeks.

 

in short: it's a big difference in small numbers with wiiU currently enjoying a large lead.  obviously the holidays will throw of this math (probably shorten the weeks) but there is no gaurentee that xbone overtakes wiiU this year.  i'd say closer to 50/50.



torok on 12 April 2014
Seece said:

Where was this last year???

It's a myth, it didn't happen before Wii and it hasn't happened after. It was just the Wii and DS selling well.

Heck even 3DS doesn't have the 'holiday effect' (it's novembers in the US are always weak) it just has the benefit of selling equally well in all three big regions.

You can add to that analysis that the Hollidays are more effective for consoles in NA and EU, with NA having the added benefit of the strong Black Friday. That's and advantage for X1 since US is it's strongest territory and accounts for around 70% of its sales. It's what we saw at last year when the Hollydays effect on Vita was very low but after the new year half of the consoles fell behind it on sales only because it's just selling in Japan.

 

kitler53 said:

wiiU is at 4.11M.  xbone is at 5.96M.  this week wiiU sold 33.822k.  this week xbone sole 85.073k.

if wiiU stopped selling entirely then it would take 36 weeks for xbone to catch up to wiiU at the current sales difference.  correct the math to account for wiiU sells 33k each week (moving the goalpost forward each week) and that number jumps to 106 weeks.

in short: it's a big difference in small numbers with wiiU currently enjoying a large lead.  obviously the holidays will throw of this math (probably shorten the weeks) but there is no gaurentee that xbone overtakes wiiU this year.  i'd say closer to 50/50.


Agreed. In my calculations, I tried to consider the Hollydays effect. Black friday and Christmas will be huge for PS4 and X1 since they will come with bundles with decent prices and the sales should rise.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

adriane23 on 12 April 2014

I would be incredibly surprised if the Wii U doesn't fall to third place before the year is out.



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AZWification on 12 April 2014

I would be slightly surprised, but I wouldn't faint or anything like that.



                
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Landguy on 12 April 2014
torok said:
Seece said:

Where was this last year???

It's a myth, it didn't happen before Wii and it hasn't happened after. It was just the Wii and DS selling well.

Heck even 3DS doesn't have the 'holiday effect' (it's novembers in the US are always weak) it just has the benefit of selling equally well in all three big regions.

You can add to that analysis that the Hollidays are more effective for consoles in NA and EU, with NA having the added benefit of the strong Black Friday. That's and advantage for X1 since US is it's strongest territory and accounts for around 70% of its sales. It's what we saw at last year when the Hollydays effect on Vita was very low but after the new year half of the consoles fell behind it on sales only because it's just selling in Japan.

 

kitler53 said:

wiiU is at 4.11M.  xbone is at 5.96M.  this week wiiU sold 33.822k.  this week xbone sole 85.073k.

if wiiU stopped selling entirely then it would take 36 weeks for xbone to catch up to wiiU at the current sales difference.  correct the math to account for wiiU sells 33k each week (moving the goalpost forward each week) and that number jumps to 106 weeks.

in short: it's a big difference in small numbers with wiiU currently enjoying a large lead.  obviously the holidays will throw of this math (probably shorten the weeks) but there is no gaurentee that xbone overtakes wiiU this year.  i'd say closer to 50/50.


Agreed. In my calculations, I tried to consider the Hollydays effect. Black friday and Christmas will be huge for PS4 and X1 since they will come with bundles with decent prices and the sales should rise.

I think your both off base.

 

During the holidays, the sales gap can be reduced by 200,000 in one week! 

That doesn't account for the fact that the XB1 will launch in 20+ more territories by years end.  That will create an evere greater sales velocity for the XB1.

WiiU will be at 7.5-8 million by years end, if it is lucky.  The XB1 will be at 9 million +.

Won't be close by years end...



It is near the end of the end....

Zero999 on 12 April 2014

No, the gap will be a lot bigger by the year end.



fleischr on 12 April 2014

To answer the question: No.

It's reasonable to assume a good amount of MK8's market doesn't know the Wii U exists. Thats a problem Nintendo is ready to fix.

Phil Spencer and Nadella get some breathing room since theyre new to their posts, but if Xbox doesnt pull a profit in the next year......



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Michael-5 on 12 April 2014

I'd be shocked IF XB1 did pass the WiiU in 2014....



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BloodyRain on 12 April 2014

I kind of would be since I thought the xb1 would pass the wii u pretty fast.