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Forums - Politics Discussion - Obama: Ignoring Russian Aggression Would Have Global Consequences

 

What does Obama hope to accomplish? alterior motive?

I will post below. 29 14.29%
 
To calm the situation down 67 33.00%
 
See results 100 49.26%
 
Total:196
Captain_Tom on 01 April 2014
mutantsushi said:
Rab said:

hmm "Europe's borders cannot be redrawn by force", Kosovo supported by the US military breaks away from Serbia 

I think Putin feels justified 

B-b-but... the US *SAID* Kosovo can't be taken for precedent!

But yeah, this is the US that says it isn't subject to laws against genocide,
and has a law authorizing them to invade the Netherlands if a US citizen is brought there to be tried by the ICJ.

Don't worry, the US has a legal theory explaining how exactly the Kiev coup met the legal requirements of 3/4 majority for impeachment of president and procedural requirements for consulation with supreme court.  They really do.  It's just classified.

LOL some people just make me laugh so much.  Yeah, the Kosovo situation is just like the Crimean one!



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Rab on 01 April 2014
Captain_Tom said:
mutantsushi said:
Rab said:

hmm "Europe's borders cannot be redrawn by force", Kosovo supported by the US military breaks away from Serbia 

I think Putin feels justified 

B-b-but... the US *SAID* Kosovo can't be taken for precedent!

But yeah, this is the US that says it isn't subject to laws against genocide,
and has a law authorizing them to invade the Netherlands if a US citizen is brought there to be tried by the ICJ.

Don't worry, the US has a legal theory explaining how exactly the Kiev coup met the legal requirements of 3/4 majority for impeachment of president and procedural requirements for consulation with supreme court.  They really do.  It's just classified.

LOL some people just make me laugh so much.  Yeah, the Kosovo situation is just like the Crimean one!

Yeah, Russia hasn't bombed any cities



Kasz216 on 01 April 2014
mutantsushi said:
mai said:
Kasz216 said: 

Outside which... again, the vote was 97%.

That's a fairly obvious cooked vote if you've looked at any actual polling done in the last 10 years or so.

Are gonna prove that?

I think he's misunderstanding that figure, which doesn't represent popular support, but represents support of people who voted. Which is how every election in every democracy works, President Obama was not elected by a majority of Americans, more like 25%, even though a majority of those WHO VOTED supported him. If you take into consideration the announced voting participation was 80%, then the actual public support rate is roughly 75%. Which is in line with historical trends of "not happy with status in ukraine", not to mention wholely realistic in the present scenario. Separating from Ukraine and being independent and joining Russia was not a realistic option before, without Russian support for that. With that support now providing protection from violent thugs and the coup regime itself, that becomes the most certain option, rather than trying to stick around with an illegitimate coup regime that isn't in complete control of events in mainland Ukraine itself.   That also happens to face economic melt-down.

Except mass nonvoting by people who disagree with one point generally only happens when there is some sort of problem going on.



nanarchy on 01 April 2014
Eddie_Raja said:
nanarchy said:
Eddie_Raja said:
Norris2k said:
Eddie_Raja said:
Honestly this whole situation is gonna have massive repercussions. If Russia presses any further into the Ukraine, and Europe doesn't actually try to stop them, the whole EU system could come tumbling down...

Can we really blame Russia on that ? I mean Europe have no common politic system and army, members have a dropping military budget, they went to so many unpopular wars. At their very border, their stance is so weak. Even internally... I mean Greece is not even 3% of the population and GDP of Europe, and it's such a big deal...

You can't even blame the barbarian for the crumbling and decadent Rome, so can we blame Russia whic is very reasonnable compared to barbarian and US : get at its border a territory with a majority of russian by referendum, without pillage and even war. I think were they are very reasonnable is that they are pushing so far only were they have a predictible and secure outcome.

Europe made itself in a position where it seems it will not say anything, and that's why it could happen, and that's what make the situation dangerous. If Europe has to stop Russia, we are in a crazy shitty situation, Europe have to make this situation not happen.

It's really hard to understand what you are trying to say.  Yes we can blame Russia.  Putin wants to return Russia to its super-power glory days where the world actually cared about what they said.  I get that, and it makes sense.

However Putin just squandered any legetimacy he had in Europe.  He is now, and forever will be seen as a crazy dictator.  If he had just shown some constraint and let the Ukraine sort itself out, Russia would have looked "Grown-Up" and people would truly take Russia seriously.

He did show restraint, far more restraint than what I would have expected. He was faced with a previous close ally, which holds critical infrastructure for his country, undergoing a revolution that has installed an anti russian government. He could have done far far worse, instead he simply acively supported one part of the revolution in crimea, similiar to what EU is doing in the rest of Ukraine. I find it amusing that one side of the revolution is considered good and pure even though it was done by force while the other half is an evil violation of international law though it was done via a bloodless democratic decision.  

Please.  Europe did not deploy soldiers into the Ukraine.  If Crimea wants to become part of Russia that is fine.  But Russia clearly violated international law when it sent in its soldiers.  (I am currently studdying international law, this is not an opinion).

Actually it most definitely IS an opinion as it all hinges on the legitimacy of the current ukrainian government which is arguably non existant as such Crimea can be said to have been within there rights to invite in the Russian Army (who actually were already within Crimea anyway).



Kasz216 on 01 April 2014
mai said:
Kasz216 said: 

Outside which... again, the vote was 97%.

That's a fairly obvious cooked vote if you've looked at any actual polling done in the last 10 years or so.

Are gonna prove that?

The polling pretty much already does show that.

It'd be hard to covince 95%-97% of voters to vote against nuking their home town... a good 7% will read the question wrong.

 

Though there's always...

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/12/crimea-vote-join-russia-ballot-no-option_n_4947557.html

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/03/30/222894/reports-of-multiple-voting-falsified.html

etc


The claimed voting percentages don't even fit with your view on things.

 

You expected a Balkinization due to ethnic groups like the Tatars whole cocked wanting to stay inedpendent.   Crimea says 40% of them did....

They're around 15% of the population.

Yet 95-97% of the vote was still to join Russia?

 

Even with 100% turnout that doesn't jive numbers wise.   I know even you don't believe the numbers and are just making a hard time of it for fun, but still.  It's easy to point out.



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the2real4mafol on 01 April 2014
Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:
What Russia is doing isn't great but whatever America says can't be taken seriously with all the countries they have undermined and breached.

Why do we find it so outrageous for Russia to annex Crimea (with popular support actually) when America has somehow made it acceptable to undermine the sovereignty of many countries around the world? What about Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq as well as many other countries?

If what Russia is doing is so bad, set the example Obama! Respect other countries sovereignty and mind your own business


The fact that you still feel that way is really quite silly.

I noticed you more or less ignored my previous replies on why such thinking was faulty in the other thread.

 

 

Outside which... again, the vote was 97%.

That's a fairly obvious cooked vote if you've looked at any actual polling done in the last 10 years or so.

I mean, fuck keeping the status quo.  Almost 3% of Crimeans polled to get rid of the special autonomous status... and the Tatar autonomy group surely don't want to be part of crimea.

 

Those poll numbers could of changed radically with the changing of government to a more western friendly version as a lot of people who supporte dthe status quo could of been pro-russian people who wanted to play independence for favor  but....

it certaintly wasn't that much of a change.

I've made my mind about it but whenever Obama or Kerry say anything to condemn Russia, I just can't take them seriously. Is that so hard to understand? I don't support Russia, I support the will of the people so unless there is any proof that the vote was fixed, I don't buy it. Will the west go nuts if say Scotland or Catalonia decides to leave their respective countries? I doubt it, if anything the west doesn't like Russia getting away with what we have done for centuries. It's like the cold war never ended. The current government in Kiev is hardly democratic so I don't know how we can complain if the vote happened to be fixed in Crimea. 

I get the feeling that democracy don't seem to matter to either side in this situation, anyways. But our governments are certainly hypocrites thats for sure 



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Kasz216 on 01 April 2014
the2real4mafol said:
Kasz216 said:

 

I've made my mind about it but whenever Obama or Kerry say anything to condemn Russia, I just can't take them seriously. Is that so hard to understand? I don't support Russia, I support the will of the people so unless there is any proof that the vote was fixed, I don't buy it. Will the west go nuts if say Scotland or Catalonia decides to leave their respective countries? I doubt it, if anything the west doesn't like Russia getting away with what we have done for centuries. It's like the cold war never ended. The current government in Kiev is hardly democratic so I don't know how we can complain if the vote happened to be fixed in Crimea. 

I get the feeling that democracy don't seem to matter to either side in this situation, anyways. But our governments are certainly hypocrites thats for sure 


Well... your just wrong.  If Scotland or Catalona vote to leave their countries... they just won't et them.


Espeically if they want to join another country.

You like in the UK, you really think they'd let scotland go?

 

The thing your missing about Crimea is that it's an issue of annexation.

 

There hasn't been a situation like it in a looooooong time.

Khan mentioned a few examples, but even then they aren't the same, as this wasn't an annexation of disputed territory, it was an annexation of undisputed written in black by everybody including the people doing the annexation.

 

The only way Obama would be hypociritcal would of been if he annexed Iraq and it was the 51st US state.

 

The annexation of Crimea is basically a return to WW1 era political reality.

 

Additionally, you know.  Tatars fear ethnic cleansing by the russians.   I can't believe somebody like you would support the annexation of a territory who's minority lives in fear of ethnic cleansing.   



kumagawa on 01 April 2014
fighter said:
International law is not perfect but it is the only mean we have to curb the law of the strongest.

Either we enforce the few rational agreements which help stabilize the world such as the one protecting Ukraine for having given up on it's nuclear weapons or we give up on international law.

Forget it's Putin and forget it's Obama which are the most vocal here.

Also, Russia is weakening demographically and economically. The most educated Russians are leaving the country, those who stay are even more easy to manipulate. And somehow, the countries that partner with it suffer the same fate. No wonder Ukrainians want to get rid of Russian ties.


You do realise that the last democratically elected Ukrainian president was voted in because he was pro-russian and the eastern Ukraine wants closer ties to Russia right?

That the capital and lower populated western Ukraine are the pro EU part and that they staged a coup with US backing right?

That if it had been the other way around the US and EU would be the ones intervening.



Kasz216 on 01 April 2014
mai said:
Kasz216 said: 

The whole natural gas thing would make sense for say... the Europeon Union, since by getting further US exports then things eventually stabalizing to normal it lowers their prices... but again....

 

there's just no benefit.

To just assume the US pulled something with no benefit and no proof is silly... espeically when there are other, closer actors on both sides with actual motives.

The situation is absolutely not in favor of the EU. Yes, they've played that game for you for some time, but the further we into that crisis the more inclined they will be to accept the position of Moscow. Why there's a huge lobby groups in the EU that are strictly following Washington scenario of events, undermining the EU, --  that question should have been asked by Europeans.

The thing is... if Yugoslavian scenario would have been a reality in Urkaine, i.e. peackeeping misson with zones of responsbility, say, Russian and American, the leverage of Obama would have been in saying "hey, we could diversificate gas exports" in the situation when "unknown terrorists" are blowing up gas pipelines in the Western Ukraine, that would have made these statements more belivable.

The idea here is not to replace Russia on the gast market of Europe, the idea is to keep that card and play it with other to undermine EU's energy security. Granted Ukraine might not be enough here, since even for Russian gas it's not the sole way of transportation in Europe, plus there're other suppliers, but a card that worth investing into. Because under no cirmustances American gas would be better for Europe than Russian, these are false promises in any situation.


Oh yeah, i forgot to reply to this.

 

I'm not sure how having an "allied" government in the Ukraine in anyway does this.

 

an allied Ukraine afterall would become part of the EU.  So how that  thretens the EU's Nat Gas supply I don't see....

 

nor how an "Allied' government would be willing to let their own pipeline be destroyed.

 

If anything, having a "Russian allied" government NOT part of the EU better serves the US purposes because if people get caught and evidene is left of US involvement, they cann blame russian fabrications at least.


If an EU member catches it.. there's nothing.



Norris2k on 01 April 2014
Kasz216 said:

The fact that you still feel that way is really quite silly.

I noticed you more or less ignored my previous replies on why such thinking was faulty in the other thread.

Outside which... again, the vote was 97%.

That's a fairly obvious cooked vote if you've looked at any actual polling done in the last 10 years or so.

I mean, fuck keeping the status quo.  Almost 3% of Crimeans polled to get rid of the special autonomous status... and the Tatar autonomy group surely don't want to be part of crimea.

 

Those poll numbers could of changed radically with the changing of government to a more western friendly version as a lot of people who supporte dthe status quo could of been pro-russian people who wanted to play independence for favor  but....

it certaintly wasn't that much of a change.

Are you joking ? Your opinion poll was in May. After that there was some kind of civil war, governement flew, some fascists came to power and start discussing about removing russian from official languages. So it certainly did change a lot, I mean that much.