All in all, I think it's hard to say what Putin's full intentions are. I think at this point, he realizes that if he presses onward with annexation, our globalized world will continue to break down his economy until there's nothing left. With that said, I don't think he is done stepping into new regions... but, considering that Georgia happened around 2005/2006?, it wouldn't surprise me if he chose to keep quiet until around 2018 or 2019.

The fact that you still feel that way is really quite silly.

I noticed you more or less ignored my previous replies on why such thinking was faulty in the other thread.

Outside which... again, the vote was 97%.

That's a fairly obvious cooked vote if you've looked at any actual polling done in the last 10 years or so.

I mean, fuck keeping the status quo.  Almost 3% of Crimeans polled to get rid of the special autonomous status... and the Tatar autonomy group surely don't want to be part of crimea.

Those poll numbers could of changed radically with the changing of government to a more western friendly version as a lot of people who supporte dthe status quo could of been pro-russian people who wanted to play independence for favor  but....

it certaintly wasn't that much of a change.

Perhaps this thread can be merged with "Ignoring Russian DIPLOMACY Will Have Global Consequences"?

You know, when before any events in Crimea they were making some very salient points about events in Ukraine, to be ignored by the NATO countries enjoying their moment of triumphalism in Kiev? Russia's stand seems to remain basically the same one, except that Crimea decided they didn't need to wait for fascist thugs to start "lustrating" their local officials and taking over their region (as they did in West and Central Ukraine with no consequences so far, despite serious violence), and moved for independence and accession to Russia. The EU and NATO countries established they didn't take such concerns seriously, so Crimea and Russia were left to act.

The EU still seems to not have given any explanation for why they cooperated with Svoboda party, which the EU Parliament previously issued an edict calling for no cooperation with that group, being a fascist extremist party (now in suits, in the revolutionary Kiev cabinet). That includes cooperation post-coup, as well as cooperation leading up to it, training it's activists in crowd control, PR, and sharp-shooting skills (mostly in Poland and the Baltic states), as well as obvious political cooperation given US Ambassador Nuland (previous aide to Cheney/appointed ambassador by Bush Jr: love that change!) was considering Svoboda in government even before the coup.

One of the consequences will certainly be that EU diplomacy basically has no credibility, given they dropped support for the power-sharing agreement they helped negotiate as soon as it was convenient to do so (when the violent Right Sector/Svodoba/Maidan Self Defence decided to cut a secret unauthorized deal with the police behind the government's back, allowing them to march on parliament unopposed, where they 'oversaw' parliament votes after scaring half the deputies away and/or beating anybody who disagrees - as reflected in the Ashton/Paet leak, and that ~1/3 of the parliament no longer feels safe enough to show up). Who would ever trust them to stand by a negotiated agreement like that again? (this on top of their violations of promises to Russia to not expand NATO, of course) They still seem to not have acknowledged that issue, or have given any explanation as to why the agreement still shouldn't be followed thru with (which was Russia's diplomatic position, again, ignored by EU/NATO), you know, other than "they won, so don't need to follow the agreement anymore". That honesty has sad implications for the future ability of diplomacy and negotiations to resolve violent conflicts world-wide.

They also seem to have a hard time dealing with the actual legal legitimacy of the new government, with the militia "protected" rump parliament not following proper procedure to remove the President (not fulfilling the super-majority required, not consulting with Constitutional Court first, etc) and replacement of most of Constitutional Court judges, which taints all their subsequent actions (including the formation of the Fatherland+Svoboda government, parties which don't come close to forming a majority, that's how much legitimacy they have)

That legitimacy problem leaves the door open to regions like Crimea to go their own way, because HEY there is now no legitimate central government or central judiciary able to rule against their actions. Sometimes revolutions need to happen, sure, but once there is a revolutionary situation with the old constitutional order over-turned, then there's nothing to stop anybody from trying to take the revolution in the direction THEY want to. Well, other than sheer force, which the Kiev coup government is using to prevent people in SE Ukraine from organizing referendums on things like autonomy/federalism... never mind that these people's actions don't seem all that different than what the Maidan people did to seize power, in fact alot less violent. Only NATO-approved people can seize power, y'know...

All the NATO media propaganda is silly though, just because it's so impotent, it's not achieving anything tangible, it's just ranting meant to demonize Russia as the next big enemy to rally against. Incoherent fantasies about Russia next invading the Baltic states, etc. I'm sorry, if Russia would do that it would only be because NATO was a sham all along, which is their problem they should deal with, independently of events in Ukraine. None of the NATO ranting is useful for actually helping anybody in Ukraine (other than perhaps some nationalist politicians), none of it helps further a stable long-term solution for Ukraine... But as long as Russia is demonized (including for such things as not subsidizing Ukraine's accession to EU and NATO), what's the problem, right? It's not like 'caring humanitarian interventionist" NATO seems to care much about Libya, Somalia, Iraq, after suberting their sovereignty. Those countries barely even appear in NATO media news anymore... Because NATO CARES.

BTW: Anybody notice how Russia is essentially conflated with the USSR, e.g. the USSR's expulsions of Tatars carry over to Russia even though Stalin was Georgian? Yet strangely enough, NATO and it's groupies seem to insist that every detail of the USSR's beaurocratic accidents are carried over, e.g. Crimean annexation to Ukraine, annexation of Novo Rossiya (now SE Ukraine) governate to Kiev governate, etc? So apparently the USSR wasn't so bad after all, if we believe NATO.

EDIT: Funnily, the Crimean Tatars have now affirmed they are seeking 'autonomy', de facto acknowledging the new Russian sovereignty. Unmentioned by NATO media is that in Ukraine such a move would be treated as illegal and be grounds for arrest of everybody involved (as the coup regime is doing in SE Ukraine, arresting activists calling for such things). Meanwhile, the Crimean Tatars' latest move is entirely in line with Russia's announced plans for the region, and mirrors how ethnic minorities with geographic concentrations exist in the rest of Russia. Tatarstan is a leading ethnic republic of Russia, with economic and living standards amonst the highest of all Russia, with major industry like aviation, etc. (those Tatars are in fact consulting/mediating with the Crimean Tatars as Crimea joins Russia)

It's really hard to understand what you are trying to say.  Yes we can blame Russia.  Putin wants to return Russia to its super-power glory days where the world actually cared about what they said.  I get that, and it makes sense.

However Putin just squandered any legetimacy he had in Europe.  He is now, and forever will be seen as a crazy dictator.  If he had just shown some constraint and let the Ukraine sort itself out, Russia would have looked "Grown-Up" and people would truly take Russia seriously.

Are gonna prove that?

hmm "Europe's borders cannot be redrawn by force", Kosovo supported by the US military breaks away from Serbia 

I think Putin feels justified 

I think he's misunderstanding that figure, which doesn't represent popular support, but represents support of people who voted. Which is how every election in every democracy works, President Obama was not elected by a majority of Americans, more like 25%, even though a majority of those WHO VOTED supported him. If you take into consideration the announced voting participation was 80%, then the actual public support rate is roughly 75%. Which is in line with historical trends of "not happy with status in ukraine", not to mention wholely realistic in the present scenario. Separating from Ukraine and being independent and joining Russia was not a realistic option before, without Russian support for that. With that support now providing protection from violent thugs and the coup regime itself, that becomes the most certain option, rather than trying to stick around with an illegitimate coup regime that isn't in complete control of events in mainland Ukraine itself.   That also happens to face economic melt-down.

He did show restraint, far more restraint than what I would have expected. He was faced with a previous close ally, which holds critical infrastructure for his country, undergoing a revolution that has installed an anti russian government. He could have done far far worse, instead he simply acively supported one part of the revolution in crimea, similiar to what EU is doing in the rest of Ukraine. I find it amusing that one side of the revolution is considered good and pure even though it was done by force while the other half is an evil violation of international law though it was done via a bloodless democratic decision.  

B-b-but... the US *SAID* Kosovo can't be taken for precedent!

But yeah, this is the US that says it isn't subject to laws against genocide,
and has a law authorizing them to invade the Netherlands if a US citizen is brought there to be tried by the ICJ.

Don't worry, the US has a legal theory explaining how exactly the Kiev coup met the legal requirements of 3/4 majority for impeachment of president and procedural requirements for consulation with supreme court.  They really do.  It's just classified.

Please.  Europe did not deploy soldiers into the Ukraine.  If Crimea wants to become part of Russia that is fine.  But Russia clearly violated international law when it sent in its soldiers.  (I am currently studdying international law, this is not an opinion).