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Forums - Politics Discussion - Obama: Ignoring Russian Aggression Would Have Global Consequences

 

What does Obama hope to accomplish? alterior motive?

I will post below. 29 14.29%
 
To calm the situation down 67 33.00%
 
See results 100 49.26%
 
Total:196
Branko2166 said:
We can argue all day about who has the moral and or legal high ground in this case and cases in the past but when it comes down to it, it is simply a matter of real politik. Russia has interests in Ukraine and is willing to do what it takes to preserve them.

The west rolled the dice when they supported the coup in Kiev in spite of the fact that they had previously backed an agreement between the then Ukranian government and the opposition. It was extremely foolhardy to believe that Russia would stand idly by while a coup installed anti Russian government came to power in Ukraine and then was deemed legitimate by the west.
The fact that the west is seemingly determined to push NATO right on Russia's border and crossing the proverbial red line by attempting to incorporate the Ukraine into a military alliance designed to contain Russia made the Russian reaction totally predictable if not necessarily legal.

So here we stand unfortunately on the precipace of a major confrontation in Europe and one which should never have even come close to this point. Personally I think that Ukraine is not a fundemental interest of the west and they should recognise that it is Russia's red line. Unless they want to risk sparking a conflict in continental Europe the western powers should pursue a compromise agreement with Russia and should not be playing a zero sum game where the benefits are totally outweighed by the risks.

My 2 cents.

Eh.

Russia really can't afford it.  And the Europe isn't going to risk it anyway

It's all just big talk for what will be a  few sanctions against some rich dudes who will promptly work through proxies.



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Kasz216 said:

1. Well... your just wrong.  If Scotland or Catalona vote to leave their countries... they just won't et them.


Espeically if they want to join another country.

You like in the UK, you really think they'd let scotland go?

 

2. The thing your missing about Crimea is that it's an issue of annexation.

 

There hasn't been a situation like it in a looooooong time.

Khan mentioned a few examples, but even then they aren't the same, as this wasn't an annexation of disputed territory, it was an annexation of undisputed written in black by everybody including the people doing the annexation.

 

The only way Obama would be hypociritcal would of been if he annexed Iraq and it was the 51st US state.

 

The annexation of Crimea is basically a return to WW1 era political reality.

 

3. Additionally, you know.  Tatars fear ethnic cleansing by the russians.   I can't believe somebody like you would support the annexation of a territory who's minority lives in fear of ethnic cleansing.   

1. If UK won't let Scotland go, why are wasting all this time to this stupid referendum then? If there's anything to support your claim, mainstream media are very against it for some reason but that's it really. As an englishmen I support whatever they vote for since it will make no difference to me.

And if we are supposed to not let Scotland go, then we should treat it better. Spread the wealth away from London.

2. It probably was annexation (but disguised as something else) but surely the popular vote must have some weight to it. And I say the US are hypocrites because they may not annex territories but they still don't respect other countries sovereignty. They invaded two countries on a deliberate lie, 9/11 was certaintly a good excuse to invade Iraq and Afghanistan but that don't mean it was right to do so. Just because Russia made it clear Crimea is now theirs, doesn't mean America doesn't do the same. Just because the US isn't annexing territories, it doesn't mean the US doesn't interefere in other countries affairs. Just look up how many coups the CIA has been involved since the 1950's and then you'll realise why the world is so fucked up. 

Kerry can say about international law all he likes, but the US and Israel get away with much unnoticed. The UN is just geninuely useless.

3. Now that's something I wasn't really aware of. I think I saw something about this on Al Jazeera but it wasn't really made a big deal of. I don't support any ethnic cleansing but to be honest we are not going to fight over these people and it's not our fight either. So I don't know what to say. From a realist point of view, it's not our fight anyway. 



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Nem said:
I agree in essence. Letting Russia occupy Crimea or Ukraine by force would open a terrible precedent for other nations to illegally occupy whatever they think belongs to them.

Its important to make sure that everyone understands that international law and agreements are to be respected.

USA are the first country to learn that . Rest - I agree

btw Ukrainian troops/goverment are pussies unfortunately. Leaving 99% navy with no shoot, same goes to Crimea,bases etc

2nd btw - Europe/USA fucked Ukraine pretty much.



Kasz216 said:
Norris2k said:
Kasz216 said:
Norris2k said:
Kasz216 said:
 

 

 

 


First point, I'm not arguing that 97% is correct, I'm telling than your poll is before this events, and that is meaningless for a comparison or trend. So you can't tell it could not change that much, because it could... in fact it should change a lot. As an exemple, stats about pro and anti war before and after pearl harbor totally changed in the USA. So you are just not proving your point with your pre-event poll.

What happens is that Ukrainians as a whole voted for a pro-Russia governement. Right now, Ukraine is a mess. The economy is bad, the governement is not elected and is suspected for a part to be fascist, their is a push against minorities (regional language rights), it just had a civil-war, Russia is pushing, Europe is doing nothing, gazolin prices got higher, and there are high doubts about the pension system.

So Russia offers stability, security, higher and guaranted pensions, some money right now, expensive development projects, debt cancel, growth and a cheaper gazolin... or to go back to the mess Ukraine is. Could you think it's an offer good enough for your assumption that most Tatar (within the 40%) are voting against it to be false ?

We can argue about it but my real point, my second point is : with this offer and a large majority of russian... what ever the percent is, Russia would win by referendum, right ? What do you think a realistic percent would be ? 70% ? What does it change ?

No, I generally don't think there is enough money in the world to erase the fears of ethnic cleansing and the memories of the past.   Russia is the country that threatens the stability of the tatars.

 

As for what the voting percentage changes?  A whole lot.

Afterall, they wouldn't of bothered to fix it to be a higher percentage anyway right?

 

The specific Tatar fears are one of them.  That's why they specifically mention tatar voting percentages.  It's to try and cover up Tatar fears of genocide.

Also, it wasn't that 40% of Tatar's voted to join russia.  It's that 40% of tatars voted.

So it'd be more that a MAJORITY of Tatars voted to join Russia.

A very high majority if you assume everyone didn't vote.  Which is actually probably the case even with a vote as important as it.

 

Though even 70% does seem high.  60-65% seems about right.

I don't know what you are talking about with your ethnic cleansing and genocide. They are currently 5.5 millions Tatars in the russian federation, with extended autonomous regional rights, Russia have cleansing problem or what ? Give sources for such a thing happening to Tatars in the last 20 years, I've never heard about it. Really, it sounds like a crazy propaganda, you made it up ?

For the 40% of Tatars voting, I understood. I'm just saying it changes things a lot. In most election very low vote rate largely favors on side or the other. Which one was it, we can't know. As an image, if 20% of the Tatars population are pro-russia, they can form as much as 50% of the 40% voting Tatars.



Norris2k said:

I don't know what you are talking about with your ethnic cleansing and genocide. They are currently 5.5 millions Tatars in the russian federation, with extended autonomous regional rights, Russia have cleansing problem or what ? Give sources for such a thing happening to Tatars in the last 20 years, I've never heard about it. Really, it sounds like a crazy propaganda, you made it up ?

For the 40% of Tatars voting, I understood. I'm just saying it changes things a lot. In most election very low vote rate largely favors on side or the other. Which one was it, we can't know. As an image, if 20% of the Tatars population are pro-russia, they can form as much as 50% of the 40% voting Tatars.

Putin confirmed  that Tatars living in Crimea will get rehabilitation money + authonomy ( good word ? ) Tatars in response send 2 envys to cooperate with new Crimea goverment.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/04/01/putin-look-crimea-tatar-rehabilitation.html



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the2real4mafol said:
Kasz216 said:

   

1. If UK won't let Scotland go, why are wasting all this time to this stupid referendum then? If there's anything to support your claim, mainstream media are very against it for some reason but that's it really. As an englishmen I support whatever they vote for since it will make no difference to me.

And if we are supposed to not let Scotland go, then we should treat it better. Spread the wealth away from London.

2. It probably was annexation (but disguised as something else) but surely the popular vote must have some weight to it. And I say the US are hypocrites because they may not annex territories but they still don't respect other countries sovereignty. They invaded two countries on a deliberate lie, 9/11 was certaintly a good excuse to invade Iraq and Afghanistan but that don't mean it was right to do so. Just because Russia made it clear Crimea is now theirs, doesn't mean America doesn't do the same. Just because the US isn't annexing territories, it doesn't mean the US doesn't interefere in other countries affairs. Just look up how many coups the CIA has been involved since the 1950's and then you'll realise why the world is so fucked up. 

Kerry can say about international law all he likes, but the US and Israel get away with much unnoticed. The UN is just geninuely useless.

3. Now that's something I wasn't really aware of. I think I saw something about this on Al Jazeera but it wasn't really made a big deal of. I don't support any ethnic cleansing but to be honest we are not going to fight over these people and it's not our fight either. So I don't know what to say. From a realist point of view, it's not our fight anyway. 


1.  Because the refferendum will lose.   Hence why Cameron's original response was basiallly "Lets hol it tommorrow" and the SNP pushed it off.

It's just a political move to embaress the SNP.

 

2.  Except it wasn't even disguised as anything.

 

3.   Only like ~100,000 people died...  Which is a small number compaired to the general pile of bodies generated by stalin's soviet Russia.

still I'm not sure if losing between 30-50% of an enthic population due to ethnic cleansing counts as "not a big" deal.

Just because something isn't your fight doesn't mean you have to support it, or want people to support it.

 

That said, ethnic cleansing sort of is our buisness international law wise.  Even though rarely anything is done about it... and i'd think it's fair to argue that more then a majority vote should be needed for a group of people who suffered such penalties to be forced back into the nation that committed those acts on them.  Espiecially when they themselves are overwhelmingly against it, and a large portion of those who inflicted it opon them just so happen to ethnically be the poeple who inflicted it opon them.

 

The only thing that makes this "not our buisness" so to speak, is that Russia is fairly powerful.  That's a fine arguement to make, it's logical, but it should be made honestly.  It's not a matter of the US and UK "not bein a hypocrite because of iraq", or "Democratic majority."

It's just cowardice and being selfish.

Which is fine, I wouldn't start a war with Russia either.

That said, I'm not going to pretend to give false morality for the "brave" decision to basically ignore the whoe thing... or even worse, dump on the guy for basically ignoring the situation but at least mentioning so displeasure about the situation.

Where i'm from you blame people for hypocritical bad acts, and cheer them for hypocritical good ones.

The Modern era of no major wars basically boils politics to a game of "who got there first".



Norris2k said:

I don't know what you are talking about with your ethnic cleansing and genocide. They are currently 5.5 millions Tatars in the russian federation, with extended autonomous regional rights, Russia have cleansing problem or what ? Give sources for such a thing happening to Tatars in the last 20 years, I've never heard about it. Really, it sounds like a crazy propaganda, you made it up ?

For the 40% of Tatars voting, I understood. I'm just saying it changes things a lot. In most election very low vote rate largely favors on side or the other. Which one was it, we can't know. As an image, if 20% of the Tatars population are pro-russia, they can form as much as 50% of the 40% voting Tatars.

The fact that you said last 20 years means you know EXACTLY what i'm talking about.



Kasz216 said:
Norris2k said:

I don't know what you are talking about with your ethnic cleansing and genocide. They are currently 5.5 millions Tatars in the russian federation, with extended autonomous regional rights, Russia have cleansing problem or what ? Give sources for such a thing happening to Tatars in the last 20 years, I've never heard about it. Really, it sounds like a crazy propaganda, you made it up ?

For the 40% of Tatars voting, I understood. I'm just saying it changes things a lot. In most election very low vote rate largely favors on side or the other. Which one was it, we can't know. As an image, if 20% of the Tatars population are pro-russia, they can form as much as 50% of the 40% voting Tatars.

The fact that you said last 20 years means you know EXACTLY what i'm talking about.

Soviet Union, 40's, Stalin, collaboration with nazi, post war, it's all over, we are talking about Russia, Putin, the current events, we are in 2014, we need example from the past 20 years, right ? You are mixing everything, Tartars doesn't live in a fear of ethnic cleansing that would make them neglect any economical advantage Russia offers. That's what you said, and that's a pure lie for propaganda sake.



Norris2k said:
Kasz216 said:
Norris2k said:

 

 

Soviet Union, 40's, Stalin, collaboration with nazi, post war, it's all over, we are talking about Russia, Putin, the current events, we are in 2014, we need example from the past 20 years, right ? You are mixing everything, Tartars doesn't live in a fear of ethnic cleansing that would make them neglect any economical advantage Russia offers. That's what you said, and that's a pure lie for propaganda sake.


That's not exactly how the Tatar leaders were saying it... and as an armenian who knows a lot of armenians... yeah lasting memories of ethnic cleansing transcend governments and stick to the people who perpetrated them.



Kasz216 said:


The polling pretty much already does show that.

It'd be hard to covince 95%-97% of voters to vote against nuking their home town... a good 7% will read the question wrong.

 

Though there's always...

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/12/crimea-vote-join-russia-ballot-no-option_n_4947557.html

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/03/30/222894/reports-of-multiple-voting-falsified.html

etc


The claimed voting percentages don't even fit with your view on things.

 

You expected a Balkinization due to ethnic groups like the Tatars whole cocked wanting to stay inedpendent.   Crimea says 40% of them did....

They're around 15% of the population.

Yet 95-97% of the vote was still to join Russia?

 

Even with 100% turnout that doesn't jive numbers wise.   I know even you don't believe the numbers and are just making a hard time of it for fun, but still.  It's easy to point out.

I've seen the picture you've posted, but it'd been nice of you to post a link to actual report. But nevermind, I've found it, I've read it already some time ago.

a) For starters, I could disregard it simply due to the fact it being IRI. For those who unaware, IRI is state-funded organization, chaired by Mr. John McCain, the very same McCain, whose apperance in any country with ongoing political instability always end up with bloodshed be it Lybia, Syria or Ukraine. To give you an analogy, it's like if RT will quote VTSIOM by saying "hey, but our survey shows that your elections (or whatever) are cooked" -- given the attitude towards RT certain people express ("it's Kremlin-funded, take it with the grain of salt"), it's a great chance for me to do the same but in regards to IRI.

b) Referendum by its nature is substantially more credible than any kind of survey, so if anything referendum disproves survey, not another way around, because 1) referendum by its nature doesn't rely on respondent groups, no extrapolation, no anything; 2) referendum is better documented including photo and video materials; 3) referendum has its own mechanism to claim its legitimacy, international obververs are the part of it, a bunch of them have been invited to this one particulary.

So the viable way to disprove referendum is for certain observer or a group of them to present (not just make some statement in mass media, but to publish signed report): "here and there we have certain violations that makes us wonder if that was free expression of the will of Crimenian people, we demand a honest investigation bla-blah-blah" -- THAT's how you do it, not just throw words "obviously obvious".

c) But let's give the report a benefit of a doubt and assume that IRI researches are honest and professional people. You never considered that survey and actual political vote doesn't necessarily match for gazillion of reasons? Time pass, cirumstances change (oh boy, in Ukraine they did change in a blink of an eye), quiestions and options slightly differ etc?

Let's take a somewhat similar situation of PMR (or TMR, or simply Transdniestria), yet another enclave that sooner or later will be a part of Russia. Unfortunately IRI doesn't have a survey of PMR specifically (only Moldavia), but thanks to guys from CU-Boulder we could take a look at their survery from June 2010. The part that interests us is "TMR - Part of Russia - overall", it is below 50%:

And here's an actual referendum in PMR from 2006:

Yes to Russia more than 98%, no to Russia less than 2% with total votes nearly 80% from all people who have right to vote. 

So does that survery proves that given referendum with strikingly similar results is cooked as well?