Look at the numbers right now and tell me if PS4 sold over 250 000 for the last week, or even go back another month.  Wii held 250 000 units sold a week for the whole period of the year and they did even better in the holidays.  You can argue three things as far as I can see.  One, we are seeing the end of the PS4 stockpile and two, PS4 is at production capacity and three, the numbers on the site are probably undertracked again.  

However, my argument is that the PS4 numbers are shrinking week over week, not at the end of the holidays, but two months after the holidays are over.  Look at the numbers right now and compare all you like.  The argument that says the market is shrinking not gone.  So yea, a few sales at launch is MEANINGLESS.  

However, I'm not even a backer of that argument, mine is that this graphics obsession is going to kill more developers because we don't sell enough consoles to support them.  All you are doing is walking down a path that leads to DRM....  You avoided it this gen, but next gen sony and microsoft will both implement it, if both of them are even still making consoles by then...  Almost certainly Microsoft will back out of the console race this gen.  They lost money three times in a row and the new CEO is talking abandonment.   The only reason Sony didn't implement it themselves was to give them an edge over Microsoft, but if they're gone, why wouldn't they?

How long do you expect Nintendo to sit on the Wii before releasing it.  It's a simple matter of, they plan to release it at christmas to complete a 4 year hardware cycle.  Lets say they complete development of the console in June, they then have about 4-5 months to produce as many consoles as possible.  Do you somehow think they can produce however many they want in that timespan or something?  

PS4 may have been more timing than anything else, or they may have had the PS4 designed and ready 2 years before launch.  There's no ploy about how the Wii launched.  If you are talking about how slowly Nintendo ramped up the Wii production, then you might have a point, but the launch was completely straight forward.  

The PS4 isn't over the Wii right now.  Its selling 100 000 for the last week, Wii sold over twice that.  Wii sold 250 000 units a week and that's not even looking at the holiday season.  You wanna go there and that number becomes a million or more a week depending on which holiday season you are talking about.  

please tell me where you get your numbers? We are on a sales website. Starting the final week in January 2007 week ending (feb 3rd) Wii didn't hit 250,000 a week until 4th week in April (week ending April 28th)  March it wasn't over 200,000 aswell as a few in April

unles there were retroactive adjusments spuerchunk's thread has a lot of this data gathered. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=151051&page=1#

The lowest months of sales for the wii in the year it launched, in order lowest up March, February, September, April. Not the month after the holidays.  We are in the slower time of the year.  If the ps4 sells over 728,000 this month it will be ahead of the wii for the month.

Look up your numbers before you make claims.

But I don't think PS4+Xb one = PS3 + X360 by the end of this generation. So it's not gonna just be a market share thing IMO.

I'm looking at it from the hardware tools where the numbers aren't quite precise and that easy to make out.  Yes for January and February 2007 it wasn't quite 250000 like I said.  and it even dipped just below 200000 from march to mid-april when it rocketed back up to 300 000 where it held at a rate of 250 000 to 300 000 until mid september...  I may have stretched the truth a bit, but my point still stands.  Sony fans certainly flaunt that meaningless launch record enough, so we're both guilty of stretching the truth.

Yes if it can sell 728000 units it will maintain a lead on the Wii.  Last week it sold 160000, and this week its sold 120000.  That's week over week declines.  The week before that was it's introduction to Japan, so the numbers for February will once again be artificially inflated.  This month is the challenge, as you've pointed out, PS4 has to sell around 200000 units a week to match the Wii.  Wanna bet against me on that?

It lets you look at the numbers each week. http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/39152/Global/  181,000 is closer to the 123,000 of the ps4 this week than the 250,000

Something you may not know. I don't expect the ps4 to keep it's pace above the Wii. However I am sure it will be at least 5 months and possibly not until next year when the Wii really was taking off.

This month I could see going either way. if Vgchats has been off, Sony has more suply than some think and infamous takes off I could see the ps4 doing better than the wii. If Vgchatz had been on, the supply remains low or unsold and infamous doesn't move consoles I can see the ps4 less than 600,000.

The only reason that Sony outpaced the Wii last month was because of the Japan launch, it would have been dead already otherwise.  

I disagree, but to be fair it depends on how long the generation lasts.

We shouldn't even compare so trivially across generations when they don't necessarily last an equal length of time.  No doubt you're thinking this gen will be shorter and sell less, but that's mixing two things - market size and time until the next console cycle.

If XB1 or PS4 get replaced in 5 years, then for comparison in their first 5 years PS3 sold ~61 Mil, and X360 sold ~50 Mil.