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Forums - Sales Discussion - Industry not dead after all - PS4, One, WiiU all undertracked! (NPD)

Kane1389 said:
DarkD said:
DerNebel said:

I'll just copy what I said in the NPD thread:

"wow this month was a total miss for vgchartz

BTW

NPD February 2007

360: 228,000 (or 161,000 if we want to use its first February)

PS3: 127,000

The industry is dying my ass."

So as several people have been saying: the console decline is completely a Nintendo thing


That was when the 360 and PS3 were still selling horribly.  Wanna throw the Wii numbers up there?  You're comparing it with the sell rates of failing consoles..  That was when developers were threatening  Sony because they were selling less than 100K units a month.   The Wii which won the generation with 100 million sales was selling over 200 000 units a week and almost a million a month.  Yes this is for the same time span, the first month of february after the console launched in december.  

If you compare the PS4 numbers to that right now, its doing absolutely miserably.  Either that or Sony is VASTLY underproducing...  The problem here is that they need not just some sales to support their console, but ALOT of sales.  


PS4 is outpacing the Wii significantly ...

You've got to keep in mind, for some people NA = the world. It's a pretty ridiculous mindset, especially when the majority of PS sales come from outside NA (unlike the heavily American centric Xbox). 



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ICStats said:
binary solo said:
ICStats said:

Those Wii casual gamer sales are gone - they're not coming back to Nintendo and not going to Sony or MS either.

So yeah, the decline is completely a Nintendo thing.  Sony & MS seem strong.

Hmmm, Xb one will see lower market share and lower total sales than 360 in the long run (people hoping across to PS4), so strong is a relative term. And globally Xb one is doing terribly. The only console likely to see gen on gen growth is PS4. So actually the decline is mostly a Nintendo thing but also somewhat of a Xbox thing.

I agree, but thats more of a market share thing than a market shrink thing.

But I don't think PS4+Xb one = PS3 + X360 by the end of this generation. So it's not gonna just be a market share thing IMO.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Kane1389 said:
DarkD said:
DerNebel said:

I'll just copy what I said in the NPD thread:

"wow this month was a total miss for vgchartz

BTW

NPD February 2007

360: 228,000 (or 161,000 if we want to use its first February)

PS3: 127,000

The industry is dying my ass."

So as several people have been saying: the console decline is completely a Nintendo thing


That was when the 360 and PS3 were still selling horribly.  Wanna throw the Wii numbers up there?  You're comparing it with the sell rates of failing consoles..  That was when developers were threatening  Sony because they were selling less than 100K units a month.   The Wii which won the generation with 100 million sales was selling over 200 000 units a week and almost a million a month.  Yes this is for the same time span, the first month of february after the console launched in december.  

If you compare the PS4 numbers to that right now, its doing absolutely miserably.  Either that or Sony is VASTLY underproducing...  The problem here is that they need not just some sales to support their console, but ALOT of sales.  


PS4 is outpacing the Wii significantly ...


yes, it was outpacing the Wii for a couple months because Sony stockpiled the system.  Go back a page, I cover how idiotic your argument is when I replied to someone else.  It's not beating the Wii anymore.  At it's launch it sold like crazy, but supply constraints kept it from selling as much as it could have.  Thus Sony took the record for the first months sales.  However even after the holidays the Wii still sold 1 million a month.  Do you really think the PS4 is selling 1 million a month right now?



DarkD said:

yea, because the PS4 stockpiled for a year before release just so they could break all previous launch records.  Sony knows what its doing as far as console launches and marketing go.  Those records they broke were a marketing ploy, I wouldn't even call them a sign of market growth.  When Wii launched, it had parking lots full of people waiting outside the stores the night before, and only a handful of them went home with Wii's.  


so you counter what you call a marketing ploy by mentioning a marketing ploy? so acourding to you sony was making ps4s for a year prior to launch, where did you get that information? if true what do you think they are making per month now if after a year they only produced what they did at launch and not millions more?

also when do you think that the ps4 will no longer be up over the wii for the same time period?



small44 said:


And people who say console is doom they are basing of what

Who said it's doomed? 

I don't know about others, but I do know that last generation was an outlier. Nothing will match it.



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DarkD said:


yes, it was outpacing the Wii for a couple months because Sony stockpiled the system.  Go back a page, I cover how idiotic your argument is when I replied to someone else.  It's not beating the Wii anymore.  At it's launch it sold like crazy, but supply constraints kept it from selling as much as it could have.  Thus Sony took the record for the first months sales.  However even after the holidays the Wii still sold 1 million a month.  Do you really think the PS4 is selling 1 million a month right now?


Did you not read the gapchart article?

over the monthof February the wii gained 1,824.  1,824 there is no K missing at the end of that. Take into acount how much the PS4 was undertracked in the US and  the Ps4 gained 80K this month. Yes it just launched in Japan, but that goes both ways. It was this far up with no sales in Japan until now.



NintendoPie said:
small44 said:


And people who say console is doom they are basing of what

Who said it's doomed? 

I don't know about others, but I do know that last generation was an outlier. Nothing will match it.


that why i said they not you

A lot of people here and in neogaf said console industry is doomed



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

Wonktonodi said:
DarkD said:

yea, because the PS4 stockpiled for a year before release just so they could break all previous launch records.  Sony knows what its doing as far as console launches and marketing go.  Those records they broke were a marketing ploy, I wouldn't even call them a sign of market growth.  When Wii launched, it had parking lots full of people waiting outside the stores the night before, and only a handful of them went home with Wii's.  


so you counter what you call a marketing ploy by mentioning a marketing ploy? so acourding to you sony was making ps4s for a year prior to launch, where did you get that information? if true what do you think they are making per month now if after a year they only produced what they did at launch and not millions more?

also when do you think that the ps4 will no longer be up over the wii for the same time period?


How long do you expect Nintendo to sit on the Wii before releasing it.  It's a simple matter of, they plan to release it at christmas to complete a 4 year hardware cycle.  Lets say they complete development of the console in June, they then have about 4-5 months to produce as many consoles as possible.  Do you somehow think they can produce however many they want in that timespan or something?  

PS4 may have been more timing than anything else, or they may have had the PS4 designed and ready 2 years before launch.  There's no ploy about how the Wii launched.  If you are talking about how slowly Nintendo ramped up the Wii production, then you might have a point, but the launch was completely straight forward.  

The PS4 isn't over the Wii right now.  Its selling 100 000 for the last week, Wii sold over twice that.  Wii sold 250 000 units a week and that's not even looking at the holiday season.  You wanna go there and that number becomes a million or more a week depending on which holiday season you are talking about.  



Wonktonodi said:
DarkD said:


yes, it was outpacing the Wii for a couple months because Sony stockpiled the system.  Go back a page, I cover how idiotic your argument is when I replied to someone else.  It's not beating the Wii anymore.  At it's launch it sold like crazy, but supply constraints kept it from selling as much as it could have.  Thus Sony took the record for the first months sales.  However even after the holidays the Wii still sold 1 million a month.  Do you really think the PS4 is selling 1 million a month right now?


Did you not read the gapchart article?

over the monthof February the wii gained 1,824.  1,824 there is no K missing at the end of that. Take into acount how much the PS4 was undertracked in the US and  the Ps4 gained 80K this month. Yes it just launched in Japan, but that goes both ways. It was this far up with no sales in Japan until now.

Look at the numbers right now and tell me if PS4 sold over 250 000 for the last week, or even go back another month.  Wii held 250 000 units sold a week for the whole period of the year and they did even better in the holidays.  You can argue three things as far as I can see.  One, we are seeing the end of the PS4 stockpile and two, PS4 is at production capacity and three, the numbers on the site are probably undertracked again.  

However, my argument is that the PS4 numbers are shrinking week over week, not at the end of the holidays, but two months after the holidays are over.  Look at the numbers right now and compare all you like.  The argument that says the market is shrinking not gone.  So yea, a few sales at launch is MEANINGLESS.  

However, I'm not even a backer of that argument, mine is that this graphics obsession is going to kill more developers because we don't sell enough consoles to support them.  All you are doing is walking down a path that leads to DRM....  You avoided it this gen, but next gen sony and microsoft will both implement it, if both of them are even still making consoles by then...  Almost certainly Microsoft will back out of the console race this gen.  They lost money three times in a row and the new CEO is talking abandonment.   The only reason Sony didn't implement it themselves was to give them an edge over Microsoft, but if they're gone, why wouldn't they?



I'm assuming the X1 number will stay at 3.7 million considering the overtracking was actually more than the undertracking. I'm also assuming the PS4 will be adjusted up considering it was still undertracked BEFORE these figures proved it was undertracked yet again.



 

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