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Forums - Sales Discussion - February 2014 NPD Thread! PS4: 285k, XBO: 258k, Wii U: 82k

Soundwave on 14 March 2014

Handheld market is falling apart, if you guys want to sit there and call this a "lull" (lol) go ahead, but for what reason would it be lulling? The software releases have been fantastic. The price was only $250 for the first 4 months, lets stop dolling out this excuse, it's just sad at this point. With the 2DS, the system has never been more affordable. It's not just down from the DS era, it's way down from the GBA also. 

Something is very, very wrong here and it's fairly obvious what the issue is, some people just don't want to admit it to themselves but they will have to eventually.

Honestly if I'm a parent and I don't have any real brand allegiance, screw the 3DS and Vita, lol. $40 games? And you want me to buy my kids a console so I can buy them $50-$60 games too? Is it really a shocker a lot of parents are just opting to download a few 99 cent games instead? Most households now have a tablet. 

Nintendo is losing their market strongholds left, right, and center, their portable dominance has never been shattered like this.



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yo_john117 on 14 March 2014

Well the XB1 certainly did better than I thought it would. Why did it increase so much and sell about the same as the PS4?



Farsala on 14 March 2014
yo_john117 said:
Well the XB1 certainly did better than I thought it would. Why did it increase so much and sell about the same as the PS4?


A combo of taxes coming back, allowing for larger purchases like Xbox One. And imo NPD adjustments, XB1 seemed too small for January.



Figgycal on 14 March 2014
Shadow1980 said:
Soundwave said:

This is the 3DS comparision

Feb 2010 (DS): 613k
Feb 2011 (DS): 456k

Feb 2012 (3DS): 262k
Feb 2013 (3DS): 183k
Feb 2014 (3DS): 151k

This is honestly bordering on a disaster, the way this market has shrunk since the introduction of the iPad in 2010 and the boom of gaming apps (Angry Birds being released in Dec. 2009). 

I'm not saying that there's anything wrong about making predictions. There is something wrong about stating them as matters of fact, though. I don't take any of my own predictions seriously, and I'll be the first to admit that I'm likely to be wrong. We're all likely to be wrong. It's all just pure guesswork. Sure, the PS4 is selling at around PS2 levels in NA and Europe right now, but there's no reason to think that'll always be the case. It could end up trending way behind the PS2, or it could exceed all expectations. The 3DS may have peaked in America, or it might just be in a brief lull and 2014 could do as well as 2013; it could behave like the PSP (but with better holiday performances) for all we know. The XBO could keep doing terribly in Europe, or it could rebound like the 360 did and narrow (but not close) the gap between itself and the PS4. The Vita, after performing terribly everywhere, is actually starting to do decently in Japan relatively speaking and could be up YoY for the second year in a row; it's still not doing great, but it's doing considerably less bad than most would have though a year ago. All the "Doom" and "Disaster" stuff is getting old fast. Same for any premature "Domination" rhetoric. Even as far as two or three years into a generation it can be too early to call.

Shouldn't it be the other way around? If all trends point to one direction, it is more likely to continue heading into that direction.



Max King of the Wild on 14 March 2014
Farsala said:
yo_john117 said:
Well the XB1 certainly did better than I thought it would. Why did it increase so much and sell about the same as the PS4?


A combo of taxes coming back, allowing for larger purchases like Xbox One. And imo NPD adjustments, XB1 seemed too small for January.


Get over the adjustment thing. I made a thread in the third week of Jan talking about target sending XB1s back. We eventually got those vack.... as the TF bundles. XB1 had an abysmal Jan



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bananaking21 on 15 March 2014
Seece said:
bananaking21 said:
pezus said:

Considering it's looking way down in Japan, I'd say 8m or so sounds about right tbh.

that would be aweful honestly. and if that really happens 3DS would end at around 60 million, probably 70 tops. 

Down nearly 50% in Japan. If Nintendo don't do something they'll see it drop from 5m in 2013, to 2.5m in 2014. US like I said is trending for 3m, and Europe probably on par with that as they're very similar. It's certainly doing under 10k and isn't likely to sustain that.

It's crazy but the 3DS is already winding down.

When you consider that PS3, 360, Wii, DS and PSP in the same year of their lifespan all did more than 10m, it really shows you that 3DS isn't doing that well.

effect of the very early price cut.  they slashed one third of its price just after six months, sales became front loaded and it killed off the possibility of any meaningful price cute down the line. once you hit a sub 200$ price range, any price cut probably wont have the same effect. at least, just one of my theories. add to that the explosing of smartphones, and no new IPs that really did huge numbers in sales. 



chapset on 15 March 2014
kowenicki said:
I've been saying handhelds would become a small niches for the last 3 years (to great abuse) due to mobile and tablets.....

I think most people (even Chapset) will agree with me now.

I've been agreeing with you since forever, but a console doing 60 to 80mill and the other doing 20mill is still pretty far from niche



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

chapset on 15 March 2014
kowenicki said:
chapset said:
kowenicki said:
I've been saying handhelds would become a small niches for the last 3 years (to great abuse) due to mobile and tablets.....

I think most people (even Chapset) will agree with me now.

I've been agreeing with you since forever, but a console doing 60 to 80mill and the other doing 20mill is still pretty far from niche

Like forever...?


it developed...

 

 

Hehehehe you got me



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

NintendoPie on 15 March 2014

Soundwave, you are seriously blowing the 3DS numbers out of proportion. This is hardly a disaster, it's just bad. A disaster would entail that Nintendo has no way of turning this slump around (like with the Wii U), which they do.

With that being said, the combined totals for the Handheld market are pretty bad in the US. The Vita is really dragging.



Farsala on 15 March 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
Farsala said:
yo_john117 said:
Well the XB1 certainly did better than I thought it would. Why did it increase so much and sell about the same as the PS4?


A combo of taxes coming back, allowing for larger purchases like Xbox One. And imo NPD adjustments, XB1 seemed too small for January.


Get over the adjustment thing. I made a thread in the third week of Jan talking about target sending XB1s back. We eventually got those vack.... as the TF bundles. XB1 had an abysmal Jan


No offense, but your target numbers are even less meaningful then Benvtriggers gamestop numbers. And we all know now that the PS4 is still beasting.

 

Edit: But I still appreciate what you say about target, gives more outlooks. This includes spurges walmart threads, the many amazon threads, the random I looked in the shop threads, and of course gamestop comments.