By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Global SW & HW UP!! - Week ending Feb 8 (ADJUSTMENTS - PS4 157k, X1 54k, WiiU 36k - PS4 64% marketshare)

Kresnik on 17 February 2014
Zero999 said:

those are the sales, pre orders were much less. As I said in the example: NSMBU had 157 points in PRE ORDERS, 8 days before release. the FW SALES were 166k, so the SALES points must have been between 250 and 300. another example, dragon quest monsters had 400+ points in pre order. FW sales were 1000 points and the actual number was 450k.

and the launch ps4 games that showed up in the top 20 are adding around 134 points right now. it might be 150 if we count the smaller ones.


Stop using Dragon Quest Monsters as an example.  It's one of the biggest IP's in Japan and it's on the 3DS which has been available for 3 years.  PS4 has been available for 0 years.  History has shown us COMG love Dragon Quest (and Monster Hunter; and Final Fantasy etc. etc.) disproportionately to the rest of Japan.

Look at the link in my signature for launch game comparisons.  Here, I'll even copy out the relevant bit for you:

Game Date COMG Sales Ratio
Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational 17/12/11 59 56,520 1: 958
Uncharted: Golden Abyss 17/12/11 45 44,459 1: 988
Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention 17/12/11 34 25,127 1: 739
Dynasty Warriors Next 17/12/11 33 29,217 1: 885
Lord of Apocalpyse 17/12/11 < 18 31,978 1: > 1777

Most Vita launch games were close to being 1:1 with their pre-orders except the one which didn't show up for pre-orders and got closer to - or exceeding (since we don't have the exact number) 2:1.

Software that showed up for COMG totalled 155,323 units.  Vita's launch week software (found here) was 268,559 (so > 100k worth of software got < 18 points by the launch).  Hardware (found in the same link) was 322,448 - more than double the COMG pre-order software and ~ 60k more than total software.

Are you genuinely sticking by your 150k FW prediction on the basis of COMG?



Read my Vita reviews here

Famitsu Japan Digital Sales Archive
Vita Media Create physical sales database
Vita vs. COMG Japan Sales Comparison

Around the Network
Kresnik on 17 February 2014
pezus said:

Q: How many software points did Vita have at the same time before launch?


Vita finished with 171 points total for software before launch.



Read my Vita reviews here

Famitsu Japan Digital Sales Archive
Vita Media Create physical sales database
Vita vs. COMG Japan Sales Comparison

Xevross on 17 February 2014
pezus said:
Zero999 said:
Xevross said:
Zero999 said:

you clearly hasn't read my post. I'm taking into consideration pre order points and their possible first week SALES points.

and as an example: NSMBU 157 points 8 days before release, first week sales, 166k (don't know the sales points). ps4 games combined 160-170 points upon release(right now it's less than that, I'm counting the next days of pre orders).

I did read it and I'm sorry if I misundrstood something. Those software numbers you wrote for the other consoles, are they FW sales or the pre order totals for their games. For example you said 3ds sold 372 hardware and 344 software. Do you mean it had 344 software pre-orders or those were the first week software sales?

those are the sales, pre orders were much less. As I said in the example: NSMBU had 157 points in PRE ORDERS, 8 days before release. the FW SALES were 166k, so the SALES points must have been between 250 and 300. another example, dragon quest monsters had 400+ points in pre order. FW sales were 1000 points and the actual number was 450k.

and the launch ps4 games that showed up in the top 20 are adding around 134 points right now. it might be 150 if we count the smaller ones.

Bold: Exactly...

Yeah thats what I'm thinking, sales will be much higher for PS4 games then.



http://vizioneck.com/

Zero999 on 17 February 2014
Xevross said:
Zero999 said:

those are the sales, pre orders were much less. As I said in the example: NSMBU had 157 points in PRE ORDERS, 8 days before release. the FW SALES were 166k, so the SALES points must have been between 250 and 300. another example, dragon quest monsters had 400+ points in pre order. FW sales were 1000 points and the actual number was 450k.

and the launch ps4 games that showed up in the top 20 are adding around 134 points right now. it might be 150 if we count the smaller ones.

Oh ok that makes sense, so pre order points for the PS4 are currently about 160, but this means that actual sales points will be above 300 (going from the examples you gave) which puts the PS4 inline with the Vita, WiiU and 3DS and thus may sell above 300k. Unless I'm misunderstanding again.

you're misunderstanding again. the points vary with each game but it's getting the bad tendency of 1 pont = 0.4-0.6k.

as I showed, dragon quest monsters had 1000 points for SALES, this translated into 450k of sales. mario 3d world had 170 points in sales and it translated into 100k of sales. so, I'm assuming that even if the combined ps4 titles get close to double of their pre order points, wich would mean 250-300 points in SALES, this could translate into as low as 125k software sold.



Zero999 on 17 February 2014
pezus said:
Kresnik said:
pezus said:

Q: How many software points did Vita have at the same time before launch?


Vita finished with 171 points total for software before launch.

Exactly. Thanks. And zero keeps going on about pre-order points translating 1:1 to hardware sales, lol. If that were true, Vita would have sold 150-200k. 

horrible try of putting words in my mouth. if those were the vita pre orders, we still have to know the points in SALES and compare to the actual sales.

what I know is that lately, it's rare for 1 point = 1k.



Around the Network
Justagamer on 17 February 2014
pezus said:
Zero999 said:
Mummelmann said:

You realize that almost all Nintendo titles have low pre-orders, right? They always sell so badly. Like SM3DW did horribly. Pre-orders don't mean much for the overall sales.

I don't think any console will do very well in Japan in the 8th gen, but how is it "illogical" that the PS4 can match the Wii U in Japan first week sales? If anything, it appears to be really front-loaded, which would suggest a good launch with a rather severe drop (like the Wii U).

I hardly think you're one to talk about over-and underestimation on this site.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5468729

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5377770

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5845237

And that's the tip of the iceberg. I think we can safely disregard your analysis on the situation. You have yet to make a single objective statement on vgchartz and you have never once gotten a single prediction even halfway right.

bolded: "The WiiU, Vita, and 3DS all launched with over 300k FW. If they can do it then so can the PS4. "

illogical to use other consoles sales and simply say ps4 will sell equally for no reason. ps4 games pre orders are very low, all games combined are about as big as nsmbu.

I won't even bother opening the useless links you posted. try to counter me instead of relying on irrelevant past.

how do you think the ps4 can sell a lot in the japanese launch when game pre orders indicate around 150k software will be sold? that's the question no one is trying to answer.

ps: 3d world sold more than twice it's pre orders, dk more than 3 times. this kind of proportion doesn't happen on sony titles.

The past can often be very relevant. Check it out sometimes, you might learn something.

How do the game preorders indicate 150k software? With new consoles, games usually sell more than the COMG points would indicate. That's because a lot of people get caught in the hype and buy it on launch without having pre-ordered. I know I wouldn't pre-order a game for a console I don't own yet, so it makes sense.

Anyway, how much do you think PS4 can sell FW? Let's assume 150k software will be sold, so you'd think maybe 120-150k hardware?

And you're still ignoring Vita, whose biggest games were a golf game and Uncharted. They didn't get many pre-orders either, yet it sold over 3ook

Funny, here you speak if learning from the past as it can be relevant to future performance, but you basically say the opposite to me in another post when I say the ps3 in Japan didn't do that great, so the ps4 will probably follow a similar curve..... Flip flop much?



DerNebel on 17 February 2014

I don't want to get really involved in this discussion here but this is the post with the preorder chart for the Vita six days before launch (don't mind that it says 8 days, that's a mistake):

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4337107

Here's the thread page if you want to look at how the Vita games performed in the days before or after that:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=98078&page=530



Zero999 on 17 February 2014
pezus said:
Zero999 said:

horrible try of putting words in my mouth. if those were the vita pre orders, we still have to know the points in SALES and compare to the actual sales.

what I know is that lately, it's rare for 1 point = 1k.

You were, just minutes ago, translating PS4 game pre-orders to actual hardware sales...Tell me you see the contradiction here.

WRONG AGAIN, I'm using ps4 game pre orders points to get possible sales points. I'm translating these POSSIBLE SALES SPOINTS into sales.

Again, for you to have no doubt: pre orders points-> sales points-> actual sales.



Zero999 on 17 February 2014
Kresnik said:


Stop using Dragon Quest Monsters as an example.  It's one of the biggest IP's in Japan and it's on the 3DS which has been available for 3 years.  PS4 has been available for 0 years.  History has shown us COMG love Dragon Quest (and Monster Hunter; and Final Fantasy etc. etc.) disproportionately to the rest of Japan.

Look at the link in my signature for launch game comparisons.  Here, I'll even copy out the relevant bit for you:

Game Date COMG Sales Ratio
Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational 17/12/11 59 56,520 1: 958
Uncharted: Golden Abyss 17/12/11 45 44,459 1: 988
Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention 17/12/11 34 25,127 1: 739
Dynasty Warriors Next 17/12/11 33 29,217 1: 885
Lord of Apocalpyse 17/12/11 < 18 31,978 1: > 1777

Most Vita launch games were close to being 1:1 with their pre-orders except the one which didn't show up for pre-orders and got closer to - or exceeding (since we don't have the exact number) 2:1.

Software that showed up for COMG totalled 155,323 units.  Vita's launch week software (found here) was 268,559 (so > 100k worth of software got < 18 points by the launch).  Hardware (found in the same link) was 322,448 - more than double the COMG pre-order software and ~ 60k more than total software.

Are you genuinely sticking by your 150k FW prediction on the basis of COMG?

how many points did they get in sales vs points in pre orders? anyway, we are seeing many games get 0.5k per point lately.



Justagamer on 17 February 2014
Blood_Tears said:
Justagamer said:
Blood_Tears said:
pezus said:
Justagamer said:
Blood_Tears said:

When did I say that?  Just after a ban and already making false accusations.  Your going to be a real treat here.  :)


It seemed implied. What else did you mean then? And there's no  need for low blows here.  I simply said based on past hardware trends that the ps4 wasn't going to set Japan on fire. You said great logic.... So whatever. It's ok if you don't like me. I think I can still sleep knowing that. Lol 

Did you base your PS4 predictions in the west on PS3 trends in the west, too?

Boom!    That's my implication to him!  Somebody gets it.   :)


Boom! Neither of you make any sense! We were talking about Japan. So America has any bearing in Japan, in what way?  And also, show me where and when I made any west based sales predictions for the ps4.... I'll wait while you come up with something....  That's my implication to you.... Boom! Lol, what a joke. The whole subject was Japan, but you guys want to twist things into what it wasn't, so if you can, try and stick to the  original subject. If you can handle that. I'll remind you again. It was about how the ps4 won't sell like crazy in Japan... JAPAN, and show me, again, where I ever made a sales prediction about the ps4 in the west.... You guys are lost. Boom! Lol

  Well somebody is all worked up today, I’m sure a few deep breaths will help with that. Regardless of your side conversation about Japan, the name of the thread is “Global HW”.  Try not to get so worked up when someone makes a relevant point about different region sales in a “Global sales” thread.  Awe well though, by all means, keep on “Booming”     :)


Wow, you were directly responding to a post about how the ps4 will not set Japan on fire with its sales. Now you are going to pretend you didn't? So please, if you can't remember what you respond to, stop responding and playing the "I didn't talk about that" card. Go back and re read what you originally responded to. It's all there. So you obviously have nothing relevant to say about it, so you try some very weak attempt to back track. And yes, this is a ww sales theead, and Japan last I checked, was a part of this earth.(right?) lol. Really funny attempt at playing ignorant to the very topic you directly commented on, but go ahead, pretend it never happened! Boom boom! Lol