By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - XB1 lifetime sales estimate 47.5 to 73.3 million

StarOcean on 17 February 2014

IMPOSSIBRU! That would contradict every other VG Chartz members grim outlook on Gen 8 being d00med and the market shrinking by 70%.. we cant have that, can we? :P

In all seriousness though, very interesting numbers. I could see it selling about 65mil



Around the Network
DolPhanTendo on 17 February 2014

Im right around there too....
WiiU---45 to 55 Million
XBoxOne---50 to 60 million
PS4---60 TO 70 Million
I feel this gen will be close because there are no special adds people are going crazy for. Wii had the motion controller s and PS2 had the Blu-Ray player. I think the Wii U Game Pad is Awesome for my demographic, gamers with kids.



ICStats on 17 February 2014
freedquaker said:

As of year 2020, my XB1 sales estimate : 47.5 to 73.3 million

 

Please the more detailed post here:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1#

(Oh wait, I didn't realize you have adjusted your market size down by 17%.  Never mind, carry on)

I think your assumption that the market will stay the same as 7th gen (including Wii+PS3+XB360) is unlikely.

The Wii U will likely have 70~80 million less user base than Wii, and those users won't just port to THD consoles.

#1 A lot of non-gamers who bought Wii like crack have likely lost interest and won't be easy to get back on any of the big 3.

#2 A lot of Wii owners also had HD consoles.  Now that you're counting a lot of people skipping WiiU and going directly THD, you can't count them twice.  People won't buy two PS4's to replace a Wii + PS3.

For example see this exercise (for illustration only):

  • Wii Only 60 million, Wii + Other 40 million, total 100 million.
  • PS3 Only 60 million, PS3 + Wii 20 million, total 80 million.
  • X360 Only 60 million, X360 + Wii 20 million, total 80 million.
  • Total consoles: 260 million

Reduce Wii U to 20% of Wii, and redistribute HD sales between PS4/XB1

  • Wii U Only 12 million, Wii U + Other 8 million, total 20 million.
  • PS4 Only 100 million, PS4 + Wii U 5 million, total 105 million.
  • XB1 Only 50 million, XB1 + Wii U 3 million, total 53 million
  • Total consoles: 178 million
However if you think that some of the Wii Only people will now jump to PS4/XB1 then you have up to 48 Million more (not 80 million more because again, you won't have people buying two PS4's now).
  • Total consoles range: 178 to 226 million



My 8th gen collection

BeElite on 17 February 2014

intresting.

but i see wiiu at best 8/9% share, while x1 a 20/25% leaving ps4 a likely 65/70 % which its already nearing in weekly sales.



BeElite on 17 February 2014
DolPhanTendo said:

Im right around there too....
WiiU---45 to 55 Million
XBoxOne---50 to 60 million
PS4---60 TO 70 Million
I feel this gen will be close because there are no special adds people are going crazy for. Wii had the motion controller s and PS2 had the Blu-Ray player. I think the Wii U Game Pad is Awesome for my demographic, gamers with kids.


lol wiiu, are u expecting it to be on the market for two decades or something.

look at sales buddy, people are alredy going crazy for one of them.