By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - XB1 lifetime sales estimate 47.5 to 73.3 million

freedquaker on 14 February 2014

As of year 2020, my XB1 sales estimate : 47.5 to 73.3 million

 

Please the more detailed post here:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1#



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Around the Network
hugebong on 17 February 2014

nope...



yo_john117 on 17 February 2014

What confidence level do you have that the numbers will be between that range?

I could definitely see the X1 falling somewhere in that range though.



freedquaker on 17 February 2014
yo_john117 said:
What confidence level do you have that the numbers will be between that range?

I could definitely see the X1 falling somewhere in that range though.


I have explained the methodology in detail on my main post here :
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1#

which is based on

* Interpolated 7th Gen Data from 2005-2012
* Constant Market Size (between 7th & 8th Generation)
* Equal duration (7 years)
* 80-90% Market for HD Consoles, and 10-20% for WiiU
* 24-33% market share for XB1 among HD Consoles only

Another study based on cumulative sales of the 7th Gen suggests similar but a somewhat different story

* Interpolated 7th Gen Cumulative Sales Data from 2006-2013
* Market Size shrinks by 17% (240 mil to 200 mil)
* Equal duration (7 years)
* 80-90% Market for HD Consoles, and 10-20% for WiiU
* 24-33% market share for XB1 among HD Consoles only

 
Size 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83


HD 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9


XB1 0.24 0.33 0.24 0.33

X360   HD=0.80 XB1=24 HD=0.80 XB1=33 HD=0.90 XB1=24 HD=0.90 XB1=33
2005 4,579,033 2013 2,442,151 3,357,958 2,747,420 3,777,702
2006 11,903,353 2014 6,348,455 8,729,125 7,142,012 9,820,266
2007 21,053,150 2015 11,228,347 15,438,977 12,631,890 17,368,849
2008 31,340,662 2016 16,715,020 22,983,152 18,804,397 25,856,046
2009 42,952,305 2017 22,907,896 31,498,357 25,771,383 35,435,652
2010 56,636,062 2018 30,205,900 41,533,112 33,981,637 46,724,751
2011 69,318,279 2019 36,969,749 50,833,404 41,590,967 57,187,580
2012 77,443,575 2020 41,303,240 56,791,955 46,466,145 63,890,949

 

This is completely based on the general market and X360 specific data from VGChartz; there are 2 main suggestions here.

a) XB1 will sell between 6.3 to 9.8 million at the end of this year

b) XB1 will sell between 41.3 to 63.9 million at the end of 2020



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Xenostar on 17 February 2014

A range of over 25M is hardly an exciting guess.



Around the Network
rolltide101x on 17 February 2014
Xenostar said:
A range of over 25M is hardly an exciting guess.


That is what I was thinking lol



yo_john117 on 17 February 2014
rolltide101x said:
Xenostar said:
A range of over 25M is hardly an exciting guess.


That is what I was thinking lol

It's not meant to be exciting, it's meant to be a realistic range of what the console might sell given the current factors, past trends, and a reasonable outlook at what the future may bring.



Xenostar on 17 February 2014
yo_john117 said:
rolltide101x said:
Xenostar said:
A range of over 25M is hardly an exciting guess.


That is what I was thinking lol

It's not meant to be exciting, it's meant to be a realistic range of what the console might sell given the current factors, past trends, and a reasonable outlook at what the future may bring.


But the range is so huge to be meaningless, its a range of Massive market share loss to a slight loss. 



freedquaker on 17 February 2014
Xenostar said:
yo_john117 said:
rolltide101x said:
Xenostar said:
A range of over 25M is hardly an exciting guess.


That is what I was thinking lol

It's not meant to be exciting, it's meant to be a realistic range of what the console might sell given the current factors, past trends, and a reasonable outlook at what the future may bring.


But the range is so huge to be meaningless, its a range of Massive market share loss to a slight loss. 


As yo_john117 put it, this is not meant to be sensational or exciting, but be realistic and informative as possible.

The range is not huge into the 7 years in the future. I am not a prophet, I am a scientist with good analytical skills and knowledge. I can't know the things that even the market doesn't know. But if you want a smaller range, you can take a look at the closer years. Below is another estimation based on cumulative years of X360 (similar but different parameters), which will tell you much closer estimates for earlier years.

 
Size 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83


HD 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9


XB1 0.24 0.33 0.24 0.33

X360   HD=0.80 XB1=24 HD=0.80 XB1=33 HD=0.90 XB1=24 HD=0.90 XB1=33
2005 4,579,033 2013 2,442,151 3,357,958 2,747,420 3,777,702
2006 11,903,353 2014 6,348,455 8,729,125 7,142,012 9,820,266
2007 21,053,150 2015 11,228,347 15,438,977 12,631,890 17,368,849
2008 31,340,662 2016 16,715,020 22,983,152 18,804,397 25,856,046
2009 42,952,305 2017 22,907,896 31,498,357 25,771,383 35,435,652
2010 56,636,062 2018 30,205,900 41,533,112 33,981,637 46,724,751
2011 69,318,279 2019 36,969,749 50,833,404 41,590,967 57,187,580
2012 77,443,575 2020 41,303,240 56,791,955 46,466,145 63,890,949

This table above may not give you the exact answer you are looking for but it tells you A LOT!

a) XB1 will not be a flop, selling a minimum of 41.3 million over 7 years. It's likely to be profitable for MS and instrumental in cementing its 2nd place.

b) XB1 has no chance of winning neither globally nor in US but relatively good figures like 60 million are possible.

c) XB1 will not have the success of X360, not only in terms of market share but also total sales (even though MS has been claiming XB1 sells more Year on Year), even if some old wii users migrate to XB1.

d) The range above is a guarantee that most western developers will not abandon the platform since the XB1 will have an audience large (and simple to port) enough beside PS4.

e) However, the range above also proves that we won't see many more 3rd party exclusives on XB1

f)The given range will considerably decrease in a year or so, once the split between Wii-HD split is better understood, and the supply issues for PS4 are solved.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Xenostar on 17 February 2014
freedquaker said:
Xenostar said:
yo_john117 said:
rolltide101x said:
Xenostar said:
A range of over 25M is hardly an exciting guess.


That is what I was thinking lol

It's not meant to be exciting, it's meant to be a realistic range of what the console might sell given the current factors, past trends, and a reasonable outlook at what the future may bring.


But the range is so huge to be meaningless, its a range of Massive market share loss to a slight loss. 


As yo_john117 put it, this is not meant to be sensational or exciting, but be realistic and informative as possible.

The range is not huge into the 7 years in the future. I am not a prophet, I am a scientist with good analytical skills and knowledge. I can't know the things that even the market doesn't know. But if you want a smaller range, you can take a look at the closer years. Below is another estimation based on cumulative years of X360 (similar but different parameters), which will tell you much closer estimates for earlier years.

 
Size 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83


HD 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9


XB1 0.24 0.33 0.24 0.33

X360   HD=0.80 XB1=24 HD=0.80 XB1=33 HD=0.90 XB1=24 HD=0.90 XB1=33
2005 4,579,033 2013 2,442,151 3,357,958 2,747,420 3,777,702
2006 11,903,353 2014 6,348,455 8,729,125 7,142,012 9,820,266
2007 21,053,150 2015 11,228,347 15,438,977 12,631,890 17,368,849
2008 31,340,662 2016 16,715,020 22,983,152 18,804,397 25,856,046
2009 42,952,305 2017 22,907,896 31,498,357 25,771,383 35,435,652
2010 56,636,062 2018 30,205,900 41,533,112 33,981,637 46,724,751
2011 69,318,279 2019 36,969,749 50,833,404 41,590,967 57,187,580
2012 77,443,575 2020 41,303,240 56,791,955 46,466,145 63,890,949

This table above may not give you the exact answer you are looking for but it tells you A LOT!

a) XB1 will not be a flop, selling a minimum of 41.3 million over 7 years. It's likely to be profitable for MS and instrumental in cementing its 2nd place.

b) XB1 has no chance of winning neither globally nor in US but relatively good figures like 60 million are possible.

c) XB1 will not have the success of X360, not only in terms of market share but also total sales (even though MS has been claiming XB1 sells more Year on Year), even if some old wii users migrate to XB1.

d) The range above is a guarantee that most western developers will not abandon the platform since the XB1 will have an audience large (and simple to port) enough beside PS4.

e) However, the range above also proves that we won't see many more 3rd party exclusives on XB1

f)The given range will considerably decrease in a year or so, once the split between Wii-HD split is better understood, and the supply issues for PS4 are solved.


Fair enough suppose its quite intersting now ive read the other thread and seen the ranges for the other consoles too where you can compare the ratios.