XB1 lifetime sales estimate 47.5 to 73.3 million

[freedquaker]

yo_john117 said:
What confidence level do you have that the numbers will be between that range?

I could definitely see the X1 falling somewhere in that range though.

I have explained the methodology in detail on my main post here :
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1#

which is based on

* Interpolated 7th Gen Data from 2005-2012
* Constant Market Size (between 7th & 8th Generation)
* Equal duration (7 years)
* 80-90% Market for HD Consoles, and 10-20% for WiiU
* 24-33% market share for XB1 among HD Consoles only

Another study based on cumulative sales of the 7th Gen suggests similar but a somewhat different story

* Interpolated 7th Gen Cumulative Sales Data from 2006-2013
* Market Size shrinks by 17% (240 mil to 200 mil)
* Equal duration (7 years)
* 80-90% Market for HD Consoles, and 10-20% for WiiU
* 24-33% market share for XB1 among HD Consoles only

 

		Size	0.83	0.83	0.83	0.83
		HD	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9
		XB1	0.24	0.33	0.24	0.33
	X360		HD=0.80 XB1=24	HD=0.80 XB1=33	HD=0.90 XB1=24	HD=0.90 XB1=33
2005	4,579,033	2013	2,442,151	3,357,958	2,747,420	3,777,702
2006	11,903,353	2014	6,348,455	8,729,125	7,142,012	9,820,266
2007	21,053,150	2015	11,228,347	15,438,977	12,631,890	17,368,849
2008	31,340,662	2016	16,715,020	22,983,152	18,804,397	25,856,046
2009	42,952,305	2017	22,907,896	31,498,357	25,771,383	35,435,652
2010	56,636,062	2018	30,205,900	41,533,112	33,981,637	46,724,751
2011	69,318,279	2019	36,969,749	50,833,404	41,590,967	57,187,580
2012	77,443,575	2020	41,303,240	56,791,955	46,466,145	63,890,949

 

This is completely based on the general market and X360 specific data from VGChartz; there are 2 main suggestions here.

a) XB1 will sell between 6.3 to 9.8 million at the end of this year

b) XB1 will sell between 41.3 to 63.9 million at the end of 2020