| freedquaker said: As of year 2020, my XB1 sales estimate : 47.5 to 73.3 million
Please the more detailed post here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1# |
(Oh wait, I didn't realize you have adjusted your market size down by 17%. Never mind, carry on)
I think your assumption that the market will stay the same as 7th gen (including Wii+PS3+XB360) is unlikely.
The Wii U will likely have 70~80 million less user base than Wii, and those users won't just port to THD consoles.
#1 A lot of non-gamers who bought Wii like crack have likely lost interest and won't be easy to get back on any of the big 3.
#2 A lot of Wii owners also had HD consoles. Now that you're counting a lot of people skipping WiiU and going directly THD, you can't count them twice. People won't buy two PS4's to replace a Wii + PS3.
For example see this exercise (for illustration only):
- Wii Only 60 million, Wii + Other 40 million, total 100 million.
- PS3 Only 60 million, PS3 + Wii 20 million, total 80 million.
- X360 Only 60 million, X360 + Wii 20 million, total 80 million.
- Total consoles: 260 million
Reduce Wii U to 20% of Wii, and redistribute HD sales between PS4/XB1
- Wii U Only 12 million, Wii U + Other 8 million, total 20 million.
- PS4 Only 100 million, PS4 + Wii U 5 million, total 105 million.
- XB1 Only 50 million, XB1 + Wii U 3 million, total 53 million
- Total consoles: 178 million
- Total consoles range: 178 to 226 million
