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Forums - Sales Discussion - 2008: How much will PS3 outsell 360?

MikeB said:

@ HappySqurriel

First off, can you show anything that can demonstrate that the PS3 can produce noticeably better graphics, AI or physics than the XBox 360 in real world performance?


Once you have your physics engine running on the Cell's SPEs it will run circles around an equivalent engine using the 360's Xenon.

Currently Uncharted is a good PS3 game with regard to visuals, but that's only Naughty Dog's first effort. Ratchet and Clank: Tools of Destruction is also a good showcase with regard to things happening on screen with high quality at an impressive 60 FPS. But the technical gap between Resistance 1 and 2 is expected to be huge, this due to nearly all legacy code being moved from the PPE onto the Cell SPEs.


So, in other words you have nothing which can demonstrate that the PS3 can produce noticeably better graphics, AI or physics?

The thing I find interesting about all this discussion of next generation physics is that two games which have used physics to define their gameplay the most have not been on either the XBox 360 or PS3. Both Super Mario Galaxy and Elebits have done far more with physics than (pretty much) any PS3 game; on top of that one of the most interesting upcomming uses of Physics is Bloom Blox which is also on the Wii.



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@ CaptainPreferences: Do you realize that your signature is twice as big as it needs to be?
BEFORE:

wii- 33 million

360- 22 million

ps3- 20 million

my prediction for the end of 08

PSN ID: CaptainPrefrences or Canadian Manc, feel free to add me

Games I own: skate., Call of Duty 4, Motorstorm.

Games I want to get: midnight club LA, Metal Gear Solid 4, GTA IV, going to rent gt prologe, resistance 2, killzone 2, home , littlebigplanet, fifa 09.



you know its embarrasing and sad when the ps3 outsells the xbox 3fixme in 2007 and they haven't even released mgs4 resistance 2 killzone 2 ff13 grand turismo prologue (in NA and EU) etc and microsoft has already released their gaylo 3 and mass defect and bioshock (can't say anything bad about this game its amazing) even if microsoft lowers their price sony will do the same remember it only cost Sony 400 to create a ps3 now oh and god of war 3 the real GOW.







AFTER:
My prediction for the end of 2008:
Wii - 33 million
360 - 22 million
PS3 - 20 million

PSN ID: CaptainPrefrences or Canadian Manc, feel free to add me
Games I own: skate., Call of Duty 4, Motorstorm
Games I want to get: midnight club LA, Metal Gear Solid 4, GTA IV, going to rent GT Prologue, Resistance 2, Killzone 2, Home, LittleBigPlanet, FIFA 09

You know it's embarrassing and sad when the PS3 outsells the Xbox 3fixme in 2007 and they haven't even released MGS4, Resistance 2, Killzone 2, FFXIII, Gran Turismo Prologue (in NA and EU), etc. and Microsoft has already released their gaylo 3 and mass defect and Bioshock (can't say anything bad about this game, it's amazing); even if Microsoft lowers their price, Sony will do the same -- remember it only costs Sony $400 to create a PS3 now. oh and God of War 3, the real GOW.

(Improved the spelling and punctuation for free -- didn't do a complete job because, come on, GAYLO? Fact-checking is available on demand.)



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MikeB said:
@ HappySquirrel

The XBox 360's popularity in North America


Don't you think this will change to the advantage of the PS3?

My reasons:
- Fewer XBox gamers will be upgrading as the XBox has already been unsupported for over 2 years already and the best selling XBox games already saw sequels on the 360.
- Blu-Ray becoming a more important distinguishing factor to the advantage of the PS3. (not only with regard to movies)
- MGS4 and Gran Turismo 5 for the PS3, there's nothing similarly high profile expected for the 360 apart from the PS3/360 multi-platform title GTA IV. For FPS fans I think Killzone 2 and Resistance 2 (will IMO demonstrate the Cell advantage from a technical perspective) will be of importance.
- I think Home will be more popular than most people here anticipate, also an important distinguishing factor.
 

Mike B, I think you are really, REALLY overestimating how much of an advantage the PS3 really has.

For one, financially, the PS3 is still a console that is for the elite. $399 is still a lot for a console. The Wii and 360 has that advantage, and really, as far as graphics currently, it's no clear-cut advantage over the 360. Seriously, what's really, really driving the PS3 sales are the PS brand and Blu Ray. The games are good but not stellar.

As far as Xbox gamers not upgrading to the 360 - hogwash. Every Xbox owner I know of wants a 360. The price is still high for them - and expecting the average gamers to pay an additional $120 just to play an HD movie ... nah ... foreign gamers, yeah, but U.S. gamers are much more reluctant as a whole to just dole out money to buy a pricey console. 

 



CaptainPrefrences said:
i personally, expect ps3 to sell close to 14 million, with 7 million units sold in the US, and 5 million sold in europe. Japan could muster out 1.5 million. the 360 i expect it to sell 7 million units tops in the US alone, and 1.5 in europe. as for japan and the 360, im guessing 200 000. im not even gunna talk about the wii as its gunna explode globaly again.


resistance2 will be the top selling ps3 game mostly selling in teh US.
you expect ps3 to sell this year nearly what wii sold last year,and you think resistance 2 will beat GTA4

 



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

It will outsell it but it wont cacth it



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I predicted at the start of this year that the PS3 would outsell the 360 worldwide by 1.5m units in 2008, and I'm still very comfortable with that prediction. I can see the PS3 doing a little better than that, say 2m better than the 360, but not much more. These two consoles have always sold at pretty much the same rate, throughout the entire length of time they've been on the market together. I don't think there's much of difference between the two for the casual consumer. Why everyone expects one of the two to surge past the other in sales still puzzles me. Their game libraries contain 80% of the same games!



My Website

End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

I'd say the differences are:

- Others: PS3 wins by 3.5 Million
- USA: 360 wins by 2 million
- Japan: PS3 wins by 1.5 million

- Total: PS3 wins by 3 Million.



Overall I would expect 3-4 million with the bulk of that coming from japan and others.



 

 

HappySqurriel said:
MikeB said:

@ HappySqurriel

First off, can you show anything that can demonstrate that the PS3 can produce noticeably better graphics, AI or physics than the XBox 360 in real world performance?


Once you have your physics engine running on the Cell's SPEs it will run circles around an equivalent engine using the 360's Xenon.

Currently Uncharted is a good PS3 game with regard to visuals, but that's only Naughty Dog's first effort. Ratchet and Clank: Tools of Destruction is also a good showcase with regard to things happening on screen with high quality at an impressive 60 FPS. But the technical gap between Resistance 1 and 2 is expected to be huge, this due to nearly all legacy code being moved from the PPE onto the Cell SPEs.


So, in other words you have nothing which can demonstrate that the PS3 can produce noticeably better graphics, AI or physics?


LittleBigPlanet is a nice showcase for the PS3, most PS3 games so far have been 360 ports and the Xenon isn't well equipped for Physics like the Cell is and overall the 360 is designed too differently to get really good results with ports, including Physics code. Some interesting quotes:

Tom's Hardware:

"PhysX is the best thing that can be utilized on a pathetically under-performing [Xbox 360] PowerPC processor"

Note that the Xenon CPU at its core isn't that bad, but the shared L2 cache (by all 3 cores) and shared slower higher latency main memory (shared with the GPU) is bottlenecking potential (which in RAW numbers would else be 77 GFlops vs 218 GFlops for the Cell, the Xenon bottleneck comes into play when using multiple cores, 3 cores don't translate in 3 times the performance by far). Low latency is very important for CPUs, hence the low latency 3.2 Ghz XDR memory and SPE's high speed dedicated local memory stores combined with the Cell's high internal bandwidth are of such importance.

Ubisoft Montreal tech director, Dominic Guay:

"We were positively surprised by how efficient the SPUs (the Cell processing units) were to do such things as run our vegetation simulation, our animations or our physics systems."

Just for 3rd party reference contrasting.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

MikeB said:
kirby007 said:
MikeB said:
Am I the only one who expects 360 sales to slow considerably when most XBox users already upgraded? Halo 3 even had less a positive impact on 360 sales than I expected, I view this as a good sign for the PS3 platform. IMO the outlook for the 360 isn't really that great, many XBox fans jumped into the 360 without being well informed of RRoD and other hardware issues, pushed by sequels to popular XBox games and no more support for their platform since the 360 launched.

I think people will also get more knowledgeable of Blu-Ray disc advantages with regard to non-existant disc scratching and noise production levels. I think to tech minded people the Cell and Blu-Ray advantage is already apparent, but will become obvious to everyone soon enough.

why whould a non-techie care?


More impressive high profile games. The tech gap will translate in more complex games (better AI, more enemies / events on screen, solid framerates, etc) with better audio and visuals.


Lol, because no PS3 games have suffered from unsolid framerates huh?

Though most analysts agree that the PS3 is marginally (and i stress that word) more powerful than the Xbox 360, general consensus is that the 360 is better suited to AI production.  You'll recall that a Ubisoft executive stated the PS3 could not handle Splinter Cell: Conviction at its fullest, not because of a lack of graphical capacity, but because of its inability to handle the complex AI.

As someone already pointed out, console power has never played a part in console 'victory,' last generation the weakest console thumped the competition.  In any case, Sony has yet to show that Blu-Ray contributes anything to gaming other than greater cost. 



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