here is Kwaads 4.1 cents.

 You think, Nintendo can over double production on the wii, and make it sell for 12 months a year? The Wii, worldwide, is currenly outselling the DS by a small margin, however that is because of the high demand for the Wii, and the lack, of production on the market.

If the Nintendo ramps the Wii up to 4.1 million units a month, production, in 5 years, almost 4% of people would have a Wii, to their name. That is not counting further production increases. I dont think the demand for the Wii is that high. 

ouch.

I though 20m by jan 2008 was a little far fetched, but maybe....Then it happened.

I have said that 60m by Jan 2009 is not possible...now you give a reason how it could be possible. Now, I think Nintendo will up the production again, by April. But to go from 1.8 to 4.1....no. I think more like 2.5m would be tops.

With 2.5m for half of 2008, plus the emerging other markets I see Wii around 45m by end of 2008, not 60m.

I guess this thread will be brought back to life in Jan 2009. :)

If the Wii did produce 4.1 million units a month, and Nintendo had to scale back production after one full year (not five) to match decreased demand, that would not be any kind of bad thing. There doesn't have to be a 250-million-person Wii market out there to justify a 4m/mo production level for a relatively short period of time -- not that I think it'll happen, or that demand is necessarily high enough to justify it in actuality.

i'm rooting for your vision to come true, JL! :D :D :D

Wow, what a day for crazy stories. I just don't see Nintendo taking that big of risk John. They've never been known to push things that far. Unless they have some huge killer app beyond Wii Fit then there is no way that'll happen (not that Wii Fit isn't huge).

4.1 million beginning on 4/1?

Is this where you come in and call us all fools, John John? :D

If it does pass 4.1 million this year he will be calling all of us fools

Hmmm... 4.1 million, eh?

Last Christmas, they failed to meet demand once again and lost out on sales. That's two years in a row. Would Nintendo make the same mistake 3 years in a row?

So what if they overproduced? What would be their plan then? Well, they are still intending on doing a DVD version, and they are still intending on doing multiple colors, both of which could increase demand again, even from existing users (think DS to DS Lite) And then, with that kind of level, they are probably getting bigger discounts from their suppliers...which means they could sell them for less if they needed to and still make profits galore, all of which contribute to a larger base to sell games to. Plus they can use the additional units for launching into other markets. Oh, and there's stockpiling for christmas...

So what's the risk of doing that many units per month? That they can't scale back when they meet demand? Isn't that a problem with EVERY PRODUCT IN THE WORLD? What does the rest of the world do? Oh yes, they scale back when they meet demand.

DS is not producing at 4.1 million a month? I wonder if that's why I couldn't find one in stock last month, or this month, anywhere. Demand for the DS seems to have gone up, despite their high production level and huge existing base. I finally found a DS after weeks of searching. And the Wii is in more demand. Yet, in October, the DS was readily available in many places -- I just wasn't looking for it then.

I think 4.1 million a month by the end of the year for the Wii could very well happen. It seems staggeringly high levels for such a conservative company, but they are seeing staggeringly high demand and it seems like the risk isn't all that great.