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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analysis: January 2008 NPD Sales

oh please forget about wii or 360 , for the first time ps3 outsold psp & ps2 . i'm sur they can outsold ps2 in the next month too



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thats a good read and i agree on alot of things you said



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Interesting read, and while I disagree with the fact that you think that it is bad that the PS3 did not beat the wii when it was supply constrained, the PS3 is showing a large improvement over last year, and WW sales are that much better as Europe is selling very well.



sharky said:
bigjon said:
I agree with you whole-heartedly on the phony 360 shortages... I have talked to people who work in videogames stores and departments and they told me they always have 360 in stock.

 And isn't that amazing coincidence you just happen to love Sony I bet...


Nice try.

 Look at my game collection and tell me then if you still think I am a sony lover. I bought PS1 and PS2 WAY after launch (I think I paid 149 for the PS2 and $29 bucks of a friend for the PS1) I basically did not want to miss out on the RPGs, and picked up few really good games (MGS, GT, GTA)



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Disagree in a couple of things .


Wii is in short supply thats for sure .But Nintendo isnt stockpiling .Stockpiling is absurd .For Nintendo its the same selling the console in January that selling it in march when SSBB comes .In fact its better selling it in January as the user has two more months to buy games .

PS3 sales .They are definitely on the rise .Since the 40Gb introduction they have turned from definitely weak to decent .And now with the BR win and the annihilation of HD-DVD sales will pick up even more .Sony at least has been able to produce enough PS3 consoles to sell as much as the market wants right now and they will have ample supply once the MGSIV and Resistence 2 in works arrive to stores .

360 .Its destiny its to fall to third place worlwide but it will keep being two in the US for a long time .And even if it falls to that third place it will still get ports from PS3 and PC games so it will "survive " no matter what .But its clear the brand cant increase its sales no matter what they do .Only Halo 3 managed a sensible growth of sales and it was for one month alone .It will keep selling good but wont oversell the PS3 this year in the same magnitude as last year .In fact PS3 will grab some wins and when the BIG games arrive it can definitely hurt the 360 a lot .MS may have some small regional shortages but they sold the same last year compared to this one and they have ample stock they are either throwing the towel and not producing many units due to uncertainity selling them or simply lying for damage control .



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LOL the more unexpected the news the longer the analysis. Where do you guys take the time from to write things like that?



Diomedes1976 said:
Disagree in a couple of things .


Wii is in short supply thats for sure .But Nintendo isnt stockpiling .Stockpiling is absurd .For Nintendo its the same selling the console in January that selling it in march when SSBB comes .In fact its better selling it in January as the user has two more months to buy games .

 The source (I think) did an article proving that nintedo had stockpiled Wiis for the holidays. also, the evidence is there, if they produce 1.8m and month, why have they not shipped that number?



Diomedes1976 said:
Disagree in a couple of things .


Wii is in short supply thats for sure .But Nintendo isnt stockpiling .Stockpiling is absurd .For Nintendo its the same selling the console in January that selling it in march when SSBB comes .In fact its better selling it in January as the user has two more months to buy games .

PS3 sales .They are definitely on the rise .Since the 40Gb introduction they have turned from definitely weak to decent .And now with the BR win and the annihilation of HD-DVD sales will pick up even more .Sony at least has been able to produce enough PS3 consoles to sell as much as the market wants right now and they will have ample supply once the MGSIV and Resistence 2 in works arrive to stores .

360 .Its destiny its to fall to third place worlwide but it will keep being two in the US for a long time .And even if it falls to that third place it will still get ports from PS3 and PC games so it will "survive " no matter what .But its clear the brand cant increase its sales no matter what they do .Only Halo 3 managed a sensible growth of sales and it was for one month alone .It will keep selling good but wont oversell the PS3 this year in the same magnitude as last year .In fact PS3 will grab some wins and when the BIG games arrive it can definitely hurt the 360 a lot .MS may have some small regional shortages but they sold the same last year compared to this one and they have ample stock they are either throwing the towel and not producing many units due to uncertainity selling them or simply lying for damage control .

 'Stockpiling is absurb'  Not in all cases.  We all know that they stockpile for the holiday season.  Well, Nintendo wanted to but by the time they realized they needed higher production, it was too late.  And a Wii sold to a SSBB customer might/probably will do better in terms of more game sales than a Wii sold to someone that just wants it for Wii Sports.  There could have been a miscalculation as to how many Japan would need for SSBB.  1M sold and barely noticable in Wii sales.  Finally, Iwata made noises about releasing the Wii in new markets.  You need a stack of them available for a launch as well.

As to why Europe/Other got so many and America so few (relatively that is), I think that Nintendo felt that Europe was the true battleground and is suprised by Sony's strength in America.  Of course, America will get better shipments as a) ship shipments are steady, (vs being 'robbed' by the airshipments for the late holidays)  b) the Gamestop rain-check Wiis took 30k or higher and delivered in January a sale of December, c) lowering of Japan supplies  to make room for d) SSBM in March.

 Munkeh111, 'why have they not shipped 1.8M in January?'   Look at Dec 23 sales WW of 1.5M.  A lot of that could have been delivered by ship and sold in January.  But instead a) and b) as stated above happened.

As far as PS3.  I agree.  It seems to be doing very well lately.  Not as bad of drop off from the holidays as expected.  360 you do have to wonder a little about.  But even if the box doesn't sell as well, its games in America are doing just fine. 



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.

nice read. don't know about expecting the $400-$500 PS3 to outsell the $250 Wii, but other than that, great analysis.



Not trying to be a fanboy. Of course, it's hard when you own the best console eve... dang it

Good read. I'm not in full agreement in some (or most) of the points, but it is well written and valid none the less.