500K is possible if DK can help the console move 70-80k/ weekly for a few weeks following it's release. I'm also hoping Mario Kart manges to give them a  strong 2nd quarter and I'd go as high as 2.5 mill sold WW if they manged to realase Smash Bros as well within that quarter. Crazy prediction but possible.

Worldwide sales at around 10- 12.5 million by Dec 31 2014.

If Wii U sells 12.5 mill by Dec 31 2014, I will be doing this....

I will wait for the Jan Nintendo Direct before I make a call. Saying that, the NDs are usually so disappointing and 3DS bias that it probably wouldn't mean much. So..

What is it at now? 5.3m or so. I think with the software coming this year they should double that number by end of 2014 so let's say around 10m end of this year.

Unless a big game comes out in early 2015 I don't see it doing much better than that by March of that year.

So 10m or thereabouts will be my vote for total sales by March 2015.

I expect them to have 11-12 million on March 31st, 2015.

Hard to say. You could be right...6 million could be pretty hard for them to hit depending on how things go. There ARE potential system sellers releasing in that fiscal year at least, so they do have a chance if Mario Kart 8 and/or Super Smash Bros. can generate some sustained sales improvement. Time will tell I guess, but I wouldn't bet against you at the moment.

That damn Gamepad is the $100 ball-and-chain that's already drowned Wii U and is now sinking it even lower. Certain franchises like Mario Kart, Smash Bros, maybe a new Zelda, etc. have the chance of helping Wii U come back up to the surface..even if it's a cumulative/combined effort. But even they can't actually resurrect something that's drowned to death. There's still hope for Wii U to not be a TOTAL failure, but it will NEVER be considered anything close to a success. And this is coming from a proud, diehard Nintendo fanboy. That's all.

They need more games than what has been announced so far to reach 6m. Just one or two high profile ones. Or if Zelda manages a 2014 release, then just one more.

I agree.  Actually I think they will do 4.5M, give or take.  (Plus note I'm not a Nintendo hater; I have a Wii U and like it).

The reason is manyfold.

1) They have more competition now.  People will be watching the new titles on PS4/ONE when considering a console purchase.
2) 3rd party has mostly abandoned Wii U.  I don't think 1st party alone can sell enough.
3) I wouldn't expect big price reductions this year.  They just recently reduced, and to cost reduce hardware you have to actually sell hardwre at high volumes.