I am 100% positive that the new, proper, 3D Mario will be out this holiday. I don't know why anyone would think otherwise.
I think we'll get Bayonetta 2 this summer, just like Wonderful 101. I think X will come out this September. Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem will release in October. Hyrule Warriors is any man's guess. I don't know if March/April/May, or October is more likely.
Smash will be in the Summer, probably in June. Mario Kart 8 will obviously be in Spring, and I'd place my bets on late March.
If I had to guess surprises for this year, the first thing I'd have to guess is that there's another "Luigi" game that hasn't been released yet and it's for the Wii U. I think it is a title that was supposed to release last year, but had to be delayed and it such a "small" title that it didn't warrant a large reveal. That is why they extended the Year of Luigi.
I think we may get Animal Crossing as early as this year. I wouldn't be surprised if it came out this Summer. I actually think that we're more likely to get Animal Crossing before Metroid or Star Fox.
Another "surprise" is that we may get Yarn Yoshi really soon. I'd say March. I think it'll be announced at this month's Direct and be released shortly after.
What get's me though is Iwata's plan to release games this year for "highly skilled users" or, to translate, for "hardcore" gamers. Don't get me wrong, I can see how he'd look at Bayonetta 2, X, and Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem as "hardcore," because they are. The thing is that those games were already revealed and slated for a 2014 release when he made that comment, and that's only three games, which leads me to believe that he was referring to other unannounced titles on top of those when referring to them.
I'm suspicious that there is another "hardcore" Nintendo IP yet to be announced for 2014, but I really don't think that it will be Zelda. My guesses are, of course, between Star Fox, Metroid, or a new IP. For me, I can't decide which one is more probable.
For one, Retro Studios is confirmed to be working on a project other than Tropical Freeze, and since I seriously doubt that the game is too demanding of their resources considering that it's working of the engine they build almost four years ago, I suspect that they've been mostly using that time making a much larger game, and that larger game is nearing completion. This is much in the same way that Aonuma's team worked on Wind Waker HD and A Link Between Worlds whilst primarily working on Zelda HD.
The question becomes "what games is it," and even more interestingly, "is it only one game?" I think that Retro is currently working on three games.
- One is another Donkey Kong game that won't come out for a few years, but will bring back 3D Donkey Kong while still featuring 2D levels.
- Two is the obvious Metroid game. I think it's too obvious that they are working on it. Miyamoto and Reggie have both hinted at it. I do think, however, that this Metroid will be a third person game. It will NOT be like Metroid Prime. I think that they understand that the Prime series is better left as a trilogy, and the introduction of 3rd person Samus in Nintendo Land is as good a hint as anything that that is the direction they would like to go with the next Metroid game. I also think that it hind at both space exploration via Samus' ship much like sailing in Wind Waker.
- Three is a new, "hardcore," western-style IP.
