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Forums - Gaming - People owe ethomaz an apology.

Max King of the Wild said:

He said 5m by end of 2013 and everyone said he was crazy and a fanboy. Well, end of 2013 and he was closer than most expected. Also, sony could have easily surpassed 5m since the demand was there but the supply was not (which was biggest issue people brought up. Even then, most didnt expect more than 3mil).


Do you have a link to the thread in question?  Im curious if I was one of the people giving him crap.  To be fair though, his prediction still isnt that great.  The average prediction was 3 million?  .8 million off isnt that much better than 1.2 million off.



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gergroy said:

Do you have a link to the thread in question?  Im curious if I was one of the people giving him crap.  To be fair though, his prediction still isnt that great.  The average prediction was 3 million?  .8 million off isnt that much better than 1.2 million off.

Shipment here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5445283
People talking about here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=167439

Just remember it was about shipment... I didn't expect Sony to have these big suppy issues... I expect this shipment but lower sales than 4.2m.

But for my 10 week countdown prediction I read a lot of article about supply issues for both... so I did a way lower prediction than what I think they will shipped... so I didn't expect the supply issues was because the demand and not low production.



3.7
5
5.5

Keep throwing numbers around and youre bound to be right at some point.

Like I said, flip flopping.



                            

So the console sold significantly worse than a passionate fan had predicted. How surprising.



I apologize although I never doubted you, you sexy beast.



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ethomaz said:

gergroy said:

Do you have a link to the thread in question?  Im curious if I was one of the people giving him crap.  To be fair though, his prediction still isnt that great.  The average prediction was 3 million?  .8 million off isnt that much better than 1.2 million off.

Shipment here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5445283
People talking about here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=167439

Just remember it was about shipment... I didn't expect Sony to have these big suppy issues... I expect this shipment but lower sales than 4.2m.

But for my 10 week countdown prediction I read a lot of article about supply issues for both... so I did a way lower prediction than what I think they will shipped... so I didn't expect the supply issues was because the demand and not low production.

That is kind of weird that you wouldnt expect supply issues.  Since when has a new console not had supply issues?  Demand is always higher than supply at launch.  The x1 had supply issues as well, but supply is pretty much up to demand there.  If it was in as many countries as the ps4 though it would probably be struggling still too.  

Looks like I didnt comment, but i would have said you were wrong.  Just going off of sonys forecast around e3 of 3 million sold this year, I would probably have guessed between 3 and 3.5 shipped, as I would have expected shipments to pretty much match sell through.  I expected the ps4 to be pretty much sold out until spring of this year. 



800k/16% off is kind of significant you know.

I guess it IS technically closer than the 3 million most of us expected, but even still, 5 million was clearly incredibly unrealistic from the very beginning, and now his newest clearly unrealistic prediction is doubling down and saying 8 million by the end of March.



Seece said:

Ahem can you please demand Zero and JL give me and 99% of the site an apology then? :P


i can try. but i think it will be met with silence.



gergroy said:

That is kind of weird that you wouldnt expect supply issues.  Since when has a new console not had supply issues?  Demand is always higher than supply at launch.  The x1 had supply issues as well, but supply is pretty much up to demand there.  If it was in as many countries as the ps4 though it would probably be struggling still too. 

Looks like I didnt comment, but i would have said you were wrong.  Just going off of sonys forecast around e3 of 3 million sold this year, I would probably have guessed between 3 and 3.5 shipped, as I would have expected shipments to pretty much match sell through.  I expected the ps4 to be pretty much sold out until spring of this year.

I did expected supply issues but not with 4.2m sales... I expect supply issues selling I don't know 2-3m units in the year... so because the supply issues I downgraded my sales prediction to close to 3 million because even I didn't belived Sony could ship 5 million anymore.

If I gest that number today I can see where I was wrong... Sep to Dec I think I'm pretty on spot but the production before Sep was lower than I predicted.

June - 200k (Wrong, maybe just 10k for devs and presentations like E3, Gamescom, etc)
July - 500k  (Wrong, just some 200k units with most for developers and testers)
August - 800k (Wrong, now I think 500k for the first end-user consoles)
September - 1 million (On Spot)
October - 1 million (On Spot)
November - 1 million (On Spot)
December - 1 million (On Spot)

Something like that was the real production for Sony... ~4.8m manufactured in 2013... ~4.3m sold to consumers (Sony figures lacks 3 days of 2013). 



Carl2291 said:
3.7
5
5.5

Keep throwing numbers around and youre bound to be right at some point.

Like I said, flip flopping.


i go by first prediction. zero and snowdog i just called zero and snowdog for their 10m wii u sales even though they tried to revise it yeah, i remember now the 5m figure was for shipments which is different than the sales you are talking about.