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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Will Probably Outsell Wii U by Spring Globally - Michael Pachter

kitler53 on 02 January 2014
DerNebel said:
kitler53 said:


i think you overestimate.   ps3 launched with a paltry 86k.   i would expect a better launch than ps3 but a 5.8:1 ratio is too big to me.   i'd guess more like 200k.

Well the ratio in the US was 6.9:1, so you never know. I agree though, I feel that it's very difficult to judge japanese demand since all I've heard are how the preorder badges are all being sold out very fast, which doesn't necessarily tell us much if we don't know how big those are.

the flip side of which is in europe the ratio was 1.3:1

...but max made a valid point.  i'm propably wrong with 200k (as a sony fan i'd love to be wrong) but i'm still having a hard time swallowing 500k.



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DerNebel on 02 January 2014
eyeofcore said:
Pachter... Please patch yourself, your firmware is outdated. Drone...

Anyway...

It won't happen, there is no chance of PlayStation 4 outselling Wii U in Spring and I can only see Wii U being outsold by PlayStation 4 is Q4 2014 when it gets its pace back up after this sharp fall/crash of Xbox One and PlayStation 4 have right now as holidays ended while they are now feeling game drought that will start in Q1 and ends when Q2 starts...

The PS4 had a sharp fall/crash? You might wanna back such a statement up, sure consoles will be down in january, but I still have yet to see one PS4 in a store and according to this site, it's sold out in the US as well, so I'd say sales are still pretty damn good for it.



DerNebel on 02 January 2014
kitler53 said:
DerNebel said:
kitler53 said:


i think you overestimate.   ps3 launched with a paltry 86k.   i would expect a better launch than ps3 but a 5.8:1 ratio is too big to me.   i'd guess more like 200k.

Well the ratio in the US was 6.9:1, so you never know. I agree though, I feel that it's very difficult to judge japanese demand since all I've heard are how the preorder badges are all being sold out very fast, which doesn't necessarily tell us much if we don't know how big those are.

the flip side of which is in europe the ratio was 1.3:1

...but max made a valid point.  i'm propably wrong with 200k (as a sony fan i'd love to be wrong) but i'm still having a hard time swallowing 500k.

True but europe was the only market were the PS3 launched well, so who knows. I guess we'll see in February.



theprof00 on 02 January 2014
kitler53 said:
DerNebel said:
kitler53 said:


i think you overestimate.   ps3 launched with a paltry 86k.   i would expect a better launch than ps3 but a 5.8:1 ratio is too big to me.   i'd guess more like 200k.

Well the ratio in the US was 6.9:1, so you never know. I agree though, I feel that it's very difficult to judge japanese demand since all I've heard are how the preorder badges are all being sold out very fast, which doesn't necessarily tell us much if we don't know how big those are.

the flip side of which is in europe the ratio was 1.3:1

...but max made a valid point.  i'm propably wrong with 200k (as a sony fan i'd love to be wrong) but i'm still having a hard time swallowing 500k.

Yes, but also EU has been Sony's strong territory, so we'd expect numbers to be about the same. PS3 launched poorly in both US and Japan, so there's more "room for improvement".

I would expect to see somewhere in the area of 180k+ day1, with 1m through may.



Rafux on 02 January 2014
Jranation said:

Have he made any statements about the Vita?
I dont really follow him....


He said Vita was "Dead on arrival", that 3DS will be a huge success, that Wii U will fail because people will not "get it", that PS4 will sell more than Xbone and Microsoft will release a 350$-400$ Kinectless version to counter it.



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Dark_Feanor on 02 January 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
Dark_Feanor said:


As I understand, reality is based on facts, that you can prove or disprove. For now VGChartz numbers can´t be proven or disproved, they are just guestimatives.

So, going back to the OP, how do you or our friend know that Sony "is producing more PS4 than before"?


yes, vgc is just estimates. But for HW its a pretty reasonable estimate considering all the data we recieved from outside resources. As for how we know Sony is producing morethan 5mil is because thats what companies do when they underestimate demand. Nintendo did it for the Wii. Considering they are sold out everywhere at the end of the quarter then they have to produce another 1.5m to supply retail again if a total of 0 units sell this upcoming quarter. Im pretty sure Sony doesnt want their system supply constrained till next year so they have to increase production

 

The PS4 is not as nearly supply constrined the level the Wii was. Sony built and sold a lot more PS4 than Nintendo did with the Wii first hollydays.

The Wii was a completly different system, very cheap, very atractive for non gamers. Nintendo understimate sales for a large margin. Wiis could be found at EBay for two or three times the retail price.

Today the demand  for the PS4 has been satisfied, even with the system sold out at many places. There is no rush to buy the console for the next 2 or 3 months.

But forget about demand. My question is about production.

Is Sony producing more than they previous expected?

How much Sony first expected?

When Sony decided to produce more?

Where are the leads they are producing more?

If you don´t have the answers there is no shame. I just don´t like to discuss make beliving assuptions.



Lusche on 02 January 2014

after seeing the first day of the ps4 release I was like wow it might outsell the wiiu by spring 2014 ...
well I guess I was wrong ... damn pachter ...



kitler53 on 02 January 2014
pezus said:
kitler53 said:
DerNebel said:
kitler53 said:


i think you overestimate.   ps3 launched with a paltry 86k.   i would expect a better launch than ps3 but a 5.8:1 ratio is too big to me.   i'd guess more like 200k.

Well the ratio in the US was 6.9:1, so you never know. I agree though, I feel that it's very difficult to judge japanese demand since all I've heard are how the preorder badges are all being sold out very fast, which doesn't necessarily tell us much if we don't know how big those are.

the flip side of which is in europe the ratio was 1.3:1

...but max made a valid point.  i'm propably wrong with 200k (as a sony fan i'd love to be wrong) but i'm still having a hard time swallowing 500k.

Yeah, but Europe was only that high back in 2007 due to launching late and them preparing huge stocks for it (and now Japan is launching late!). PS3 was also nowhere near as supply constrained as PS4 was in Europe. PS4 sold out in literally minutes in most places.

yeah, we'll see.  i hope you're right. 

OT - JL is soo sexy.



tiffac on 02 January 2014

Jinx comments from Pachter! Now the PS4 is surely doomed. His hate train on the Wii U continues. So its like hitting 2 birds with 1 stone. lol!



Dark_Feanor on 02 January 2014
pezus said:

Wow, how your attitude towards VGChartz numbers has changed since last week's numbers . 


For me it didn´t changed a bit. 

I never claimed they are more than 20% accurated. And I have very little clue on how they get their weekly sales so "precise". How can I trust them?  The rest of the world numbers bug my for years. 

Of cource, when the companies release their press statements with "1 milion day one", or '2 milion' or the quartely reports or NPD VGChartz does a great job adjusting past weeks.

And for you, has itchanged?