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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Will Probably Outsell Wii U by Spring Globally - Michael Pachter

reggin_bolas on 03 January 2014

Don't see what the big deal is, the Wii U is one of Nintendo's worst selling console thus far. Any prediction against it, no matter how crazy is credibly based on raw sale data and cross-comparisons.

Also, didn't many people think the Wii U was going to sell way over 5.5 million at the end of 13? I think 10 million LTD was a voting category.

Wake up!



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Max King of the Wild on 03 January 2014
reggin_bolas said:
Don't see what the big deal is, the Wii U is one of Nintendo's worst selling console thus far. Any prediction against it, no matter how crazy is credibly based on raw sale data and cross-comparisons.

Also, didn't many people think the Wii U was going to sell way over 5.5 million at the end of 13? I think 10 million LTD was a voting category.

Wake up!

the lowest was about 8mil before then end June... then they kept getting lower and lower but no one (at all) expected the lows of 5.5mil. Even in sept people were thinking 6m to be the lowest



S.T.A.G.E. on 03 January 2014
eyeofcore said:
I am out of here...

I won't argue with biased pro-Sony fans... I hurt their feeling.


We all want whats best for Nintendo but people just arent gravitating to it. If people didn't gravitate to Super Mario 3D World in November/December enough then something is seriously...seriously wrong. The major problem at hand is that the new consoles dropped and they are taking the spotlight from Nintendo. Don't believe me? Keep watching the first quarter. Sony is going to zip past Nintendo and Microsoft its going to waltz past Nintendo as well. Even at $500 the Xbox One will have more yearly demand than the Wii U. The way they are selling Sony will pass Nintendo within the first quarter of 2014 and Microsoft will pass the Wii U most likely by Summer.



Fusioncode on 03 January 2014
Zero999 said:
dsp333 said:

Zero999 said:

I'm speechless.


Can't argue that. If I humiliated myself as much as you, I'd desperately try to dodge the point discussion and attempt to save face by distracting with petty personal insults too.

Let me be frank with you Zero, you're transparent. You're the emperor with no clothing. You're probably too stupid and pigheaded to come to terms with this, but it's probably better you stop posting and collect your thoughts better for next time... Not that I want you to, though, I don't think I have to worry about that. :)

Said the clone account.

What kind of rebuttal is that? It's like a 7 year old wrote it.  



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

episteme on 03 January 2014

Why do you think that PS4's launch in Japan will be much better than Wii U's?

The Wii U launched at December 8th (holiday boost) and with the successor of New Super Mario Bros. Wii, the best-selling game on a home console in Japan since the original Super Mario Bros. (NES). NSMBWii sold almost as many units in Japan as the four best-selling PS3 games combined. NSMBU had a attach rate of around 50% before the new bundles were launched, now it's close to 80%. It already sold more units than the third best-selling PS3 game.

The PS4 launches on February 22nd with no holiday boost. The highest sales will probably have Yakuza Ishin, the sucessor of a game that sold 0,59M units. It will probably sell more units on PS3.

The Japanese won't care much about Killzone, Knack, DriveClub or InFAMOUS a month later.
The fanfases of Call of Duty or Battlefied (the ones who highly influenced the western PS4 sales) aren't that big in Japan and the potential buyers probably won't wait until February.

The Japanese won't buy the console without interesting games and wait until 2015 to play on it.

Most PS4's that are sold today were ordered before launch and were influenced by the E3 hype. I doubt that a crazy amount of PS4's is still ordered today after all the game reviews are out.

I think the PS4 will have higher YTD numbers than the Wii U in Japan at the end of 2014, but it won't beat it's LTD numbers (maybe in 2015). It will almost certainly beat it's LTD numbers everywhere outside Japan, it already happened in several countries.

(Sorry, my English isn't the very best...)



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Zero999 on 03 January 2014
episteme said:

Why do you think that PS4's launch in Japan will be much better than Wii U's?

The Wii U launched at December 8th (holiday boost) and with the successor of New Super Mario Bros. Wii, the best-selling game on a home console in Japan since the original Super Mario Bros. (NES). NSMBWii sold almost as many units in Japan as the four best-selling PS3 games combined. NSMBU had a attach rate of around 50% before the new bundles were launched, now it's close to 80%. It already sold more units than the third best-selling PS3 game.

The PS4 launches on February 22nd with no holiday boost. The highest sales will probably have Yakuza Ishin, the sucessor of a game that sold 0,59M units. It will probably sell more units on PS3.

The Japanese won't care much about Killzone, Knack, DriveClub or InFAMOUS a month later.
The fanfases of Call of Duty or Battlefied (the ones who highly influenced the western PS4 sales) aren't that big in Japan and the potential buyers probably won't wait until February.

The Japanese won't buy the console without interesting games and wait until 2015 to play on it.

Most PS4's that are sold today were ordered before launch and were influenced by the E3 hype. I doubt that a crazy amount of PS4's is still ordered today after all the game reviews are out.

I think the PS4 will have higher YTD numbers than the Wii U in Japan at the end of 2014, but it won't beat it's LTD numbers (maybe in 2015). It will almost certainly beat it's LTD numbers everywhere outside Japan, it already happened in several countries.

(Sorry, my English isn't the very best...)

comgnet preorders so far show that only yakuza and dinasty warriors may do decently on ps4 launch week. sales will probably freefall after that.



episteme on 03 January 2014
Zero999 said:
episteme said:

Why do you think that PS4's launch in Japan will be much better than Wii U's?

The Wii U launched at December 8th (holiday boost) and with the successor of New Super Mario Bros. Wii, the best-selling game on a home console in Japan since the original Super Mario Bros. (NES). NSMBWii sold almost as many units in Japan as the four best-selling PS3 games combined. NSMBU had a attach rate of around 50% before the new bundles were launched, now it's close to 80%. It already sold more units than the third best-selling PS3 game.

The PS4 launches on February 22nd with no holiday boost. The highest sales will probably have Yakuza Ishin, the sucessor of a game that sold 0,59M units. It will probably sell more units on PS3.

The Japanese won't care much about Killzone, Knack, DriveClub or InFAMOUS a month later.
The fanfases of Call of Duty or Battlefied (the ones who highly influenced the western PS4 sales) aren't that big in Japan and the potential buyers probably won't wait until February.

The Japanese won't buy the console without interesting games and wait until 2015 to play on it.

Most PS4's that are sold today were ordered before launch and were influenced by the E3 hype. I doubt that a crazy amount of PS4's is still ordered today after all the game reviews are out.

I think the PS4 will have higher YTD numbers than the Wii U in Japan at the end of 2014, but it won't beat it's LTD numbers (maybe in 2015). It will almost certainly beat it's LTD numbers everywhere outside Japan, it already happened in several countries.

(Sorry, my English isn't the very best...)

comgnet preorders so far show that only yakuza and dinasty warriors may do decently on ps4 launch week. sales will probably freefall after that.


Dynasty Warriors 8: Xtreme Legends (PS3) sold around 50K units at launch. I guess it will do less than half of that on PS4.



Zero999 on 03 January 2014
episteme said:
Zero999 said:

comgnet preorders so far show that only yakuza and dinasty warriors may do decently on ps4 launch week. sales will probably freefall after that.


Dynasty Warriors 8: Xtreme Legends (PS3) sold around 50K units at launch. I guess it will do less than half of that on PS4.

I don't think it will be so low. still, it's a low debut and it's gonna be the second best selling ps4 title at launch.



Rafux on 03 January 2014
episteme said:

Why do you think that PS4's launch in Japan will be much better than Wii U's?

The Wii U launched at December 8th (holiday boost) and with the successor of New Super Mario Bros. Wii, the best-selling game on a home console in Japan since the original Super Mario Bros. (NES). NSMBWii sold almost as many units in Japan as the four best-selling PS3 games combined. NSMBU had a attach rate of around 50% before the new bundles were launched, now it's close to 80%. It already sold more units than the third best-selling PS3 game.

The PS4 launches on February 22nd with no holiday boost. The highest sales will probably have Yakuza Ishin, the sucessor of a game that sold 0,59M units. It will probably sell more units on PS3.

The Japanese won't care much about Killzone, Knack, DriveClub or InFAMOUS a month later.
The fanfases of Call of Duty or Battlefied (the ones who highly influenced the western PS4 sales) aren't that big in Japan and the potential buyers probably won't wait until February.

The Japanese won't buy the console without interesting games and wait until 2015 to play on it.

Most PS4's that are sold today were ordered before launch and were influenced by the E3 hype. I doubt that a crazy amount of PS4's is still ordered today after all the game reviews are out.

I think the PS4 will have higher YTD numbers than the Wii U in Japan at the end of 2014, but it won't beat it's LTD numbers (maybe in 2015). It will almost certainly beat it's LTD numbers everywhere outside Japan, it already happened in several countries.

(Sorry, my English isn't the very best...)

"Most PS4's that are sold today were ordered before launch and were influenced by the E3 hype"

And you base this on what? People are still buying PS4 not just for hype but because of the promise of coming new games exclusive and multiplatform. Mediocre launch games didn't stop PS1, PS2 or X360 from being a success.



episteme on 04 January 2014
Rafux said:
episteme said:

Why do you think that PS4's launch in Japan will be much better than Wii U's?

The Wii U launched at December 8th (holiday boost) and with the successor of New Super Mario Bros. Wii, the best-selling game on a home console in Japan since the original Super Mario Bros. (NES). NSMBWii sold almost as many units in Japan as the four best-selling PS3 games combined. NSMBU had a attach rate of around 50% before the new bundles were launched, now it's close to 80%. It already sold more units than the third best-selling PS3 game.

The PS4 launches on February 22nd with no holiday boost. The highest sales will probably have Yakuza Ishin, the sucessor of a game that sold 0,59M units. It will probably sell more units on PS3.

The Japanese won't care much about Killzone, Knack, DriveClub or InFAMOUS a month later.
The fanfases of Call of Duty or Battlefied (the ones who highly influenced the western PS4 sales) aren't that big in Japan and the potential buyers probably won't wait until February.

The Japanese won't buy the console without interesting games and wait until 2015 to play on it.

Most PS4's that are sold today were ordered before launch and were influenced by the E3 hype. I doubt that a crazy amount of PS4's is still ordered today after all the game reviews are out.

I think the PS4 will have higher YTD numbers than the Wii U in Japan at the end of 2014, but it won't beat it's LTD numbers (maybe in 2015). It will almost certainly beat it's LTD numbers everywhere outside Japan, it already happened in several countries.

(Sorry, my English isn't the very best...)

"Most PS4's that are sold today were ordered before launch and were influenced by the E3 hype"

And you base this on what? People are still buying PS4 not just for hype but because of the promise of coming new games exclusive and multiplatform. Mediocre launch games didn't stop PS1, PS2 or X360 from being a success.

Ok, at least in here Germany you get the PS4's ordered early in November right now if you're lucky. Not sure about other countries.

We'll see what happens after the pre-orders are shipped.

It will depend on the games releasing in spring. The PS4 won't be sold out forever without many critically acclaimed games. You have to fullfill the promise at a certain point. I'm not so sure about InFAMOUS, maybe Watch Dogs.