Wii U by now should be 5.3 to 5.5 million units...

In January it should reach 5.7 while in best case scenario 5.85, Wii U will break 6 million in february and should hit 6.75 somewhere in March.

I estimate that Wii U by November will break 10 million and by end of 2014 will break 12.5 million...

Yep...that sounds like Sonys first year numbers for sure. Sony and Microsoft are good at getting people to pick up consoles in Summer and Fall especially. 

We will see. PS4 has had a great launch but Nintendo has 2 games (Donkey Kong & Mario Kart) that have historically moved alot of consoles for them while Sony has nothing in terms of software coming out that is going to move the needle. Infamous 2 only sold 1.6 million which was a 40 percent drop from the 1st one, so I really dont see how this new one will move any consoles. My guess is that PS4 will get really close or pass the Wii U, but once Kart comes out Wii U will retake the lead. Its just a guess though, I could see some different things happening. What I do know for a fact is that the Xbone will not catch the Wii U anytime soon. It's going to have a hard time just keeping pace, I have no clue why anyone thinks it will pass it when it still has 2.5 million to go and is only outselling it by 30 - 50k per week during its launch.

why will Wii U sell 300k in Jan and then 750k in March when last year Nintendo shipped 300k for the three months? No, I'm thinking best case scenario is ~300k a month

I saw and understood what you wrote. My only concern with your prediction is that at the moment it's unclear if Sony has the ability to produce enough systems to pass WiiU before the end of Q1. They will most likely have to reach atleast 6 million by the end of March to have a chance in succeeding, and Sony's production capacity is somewhat clouded at the moment. Reasonable estimates of their current monthly production capacity lays between 600.000-800 000 systems. Meaning with a total sell through they will at the most reach somewhere between 5,6-6,2 million systems by the end of March 2014. So even with a total sell through, it's somewhat unlikely they will be able to pass WiiU in Q1, UNLESS Sony manages to increase the production.

So from a production perspective, and the knowledge we have at the moment, Pachter is absolutely right that PS4 has a chance to pass WiiU in April. Hower, his estimate is based on a scenario that requires 1) a TOTAL sell through of PS4 in January through April, and 2) That WiiU will see modest sales during the same time period. If that scenario is slightly off, by as little as 10 percent to WiiU's favor, Pachter's predictions will be off by more than a month.

There is so much uncertainty in all of this, that it's anyone's guess when PS4 will pass WiiU. In a best case scenario it will happen in April at the earliest, but considering how uncertain the market has proven to be during the last couple of years, it's almost shameful for a professional analyst like Pachter to base his prediction on purely a best case scenario from Sony's perspective. A better way to put it would be to say: "PS4 will most likely pass WiiU sometime this year, at the earliest in April". Such a prediction would be more in line with the facts and knowledge we have today, the ONLY facts and knowledge we're allowed to base professional predictions on.

I do believe Pachter has a somewhat optimistic view on Q1 and Q2 sales of PS4. I believe we will see quite a dramatic drop in sales as soon as the dust has settled. My estimate is an 80 percent sell through instead of the 100 percent Pachter estimates. Likewise I believe he has a somewhat pessimistic view on Q1 and Q2 sales of WiiU; first of all he doesn't seem to consider the strength and length of Mario's legs in Super Mario 3D World. Second I believe he underestimates Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze. And third, is the power of a little kart engine in Mario Kart 8. Even without a release of Mario Kart 8 during the first six months of the year, I still think Pachter is 30 % off with his prediction. That's 30 % in WiiU's favor instead, which equals aprox. a 3 month adjustment of Pachter's bold prediction. April then becomes July, even without Mario Kart 8.

Of course I'm just guessing these things. I'm not an expert, and aparantly neither is Pachter. One of us might get lucky, but most likely we are both wrong. One thing is almost certain though, PS4 will pass WiiU one day. 

It is now inevitable that this thread will be bumped in 2 to 5 months with many pictures of dead crows. Great. There was almost a dire shortage of such threads.

this made me LOL, some people wont be man enough to eat the meal and just disappear for a few weeks, return as if nobody would remember and act like they didnt say it. Or simply not come back. its a good time either way.

PS4 has 3rd party games.

Nobody is buying a U for that and XBones price hurts it there (extra for rechargable batteries nice one cheapsoft).  PS4 is the choice for consumers wanting to jump into the new gen.

By March they ll be 6m WiiU vs 5.5m PS4

May sounds about right. Still we will have to wait what kind of a boost MK8 gives WiiU and how SW performs on PS4

Nope... Do I mention Sony or Microsoft? No, so stop being delusional and also please go back to school since you can't read apparently...

PlayStation 4 stands at 3.4 million at week that ended on December 21th... I expect that PlayStation 4 will reach week after that 3.8-4.0 million and week after that 4.1-4.25 million... I assume that sales cool down as usually after Xmas and crash and burn after New Year event.