S.T.A.G.E. said:
The Xbox One is the console that fits the description of the scenario you are creating. The Xbox One will surpass the Wii U by the beginning or end of Summer. Lets make a wager. If I win and the PS4 passes the Wii U by the end of first quarter I you have to put on your sig that my theory right. If your theory is true, then i will put up a sig saying that what you are saying is true. As I said before in my earlier posts, I don't know whether it is a blessing or a curse that I have a alarmingly close prediction to Michael Pachter about the Wii U's lifetime sales and window of being passed by the PS4. The PS4 is going to pass the Wii U with ease. A years worth of the Wii U's sales overthrown in four to five months. |
I saw and understood what you wrote. My only concern with your prediction is that at the moment it's unclear if Sony has the ability to produce enough systems to pass WiiU before the end of Q1. They will most likely have to reach atleast 6 million by the end of March to have a chance in succeeding, and Sony's production capacity is somewhat clouded at the moment. Reasonable estimates of their current monthly production capacity lays between 600.000-800 000 systems. Meaning with a total sell through they will at the most reach somewhere between 5,6-6,2 million systems by the end of March 2014. So even with a total sell through, it's somewhat unlikely they will be able to pass WiiU in Q1, UNLESS Sony manages to increase the production.
So from a production perspective, and the knowledge we have at the moment, Pachter is absolutely right that PS4 has a chance to pass WiiU in April. Hower, his estimate is based on a scenario that requires 1) a TOTAL sell through of PS4 in January through April, and 2) That WiiU will see modest sales during the same time period. If that scenario is slightly off, by as little as 10 percent to WiiU's favor, Pachter's predictions will be off by more than a month.
There is so much uncertainty in all of this, that it's anyone's guess when PS4 will pass WiiU. In a best case scenario it will happen in April at the earliest, but considering how uncertain the market has proven to be during the last couple of years, it's almost shameful for a professional analyst like Pachter to base his prediction on purely a best case scenario from Sony's perspective. A better way to put it would be to say: "PS4 will most likely pass WiiU sometime this year, at the earliest in April". Such a prediction would be more in line with the facts and knowledge we have today, the ONLY facts and knowledge we're allowed to base professional predictions on.
I do believe Pachter has a somewhat optimistic view on Q1 and Q2 sales of PS4. I believe we will see quite a dramatic drop in sales as soon as the dust has settled. My estimate is an 80 percent sell through instead of the 100 percent Pachter estimates. Likewise I believe he has a somewhat pessimistic view on Q1 and Q2 sales of WiiU; first of all he doesn't seem to consider the strength and length of Mario's legs in Super Mario 3D World. Second I believe he underestimates Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze. And third, is the power of a little kart engine in Mario Kart 8. Even without a release of Mario Kart 8 during the first six months of the year, I still think Pachter is 30 % off with his prediction. That's 30 % in WiiU's favor instead, which equals aprox. a 3 month adjustment of Pachter's bold prediction. April then becomes July, even without Mario Kart 8.
Of course I'm just guessing these things. I'm not an expert, and aparantly neither is Pachter. One of us might get lucky, but most likely we are both wrong. One thing is almost certain though, PS4 will pass WiiU one day.
