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Forums - Sales - December 2013 will face adjustments based on the trend

kirby007 on 03 January 2014

atleast we know where part of that 200k overtracked comes from



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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drkohler on 03 January 2014
kirby007 said:
2 150 000 x30% = +- 645k

Uh.. no. At the time of the interview, Nintendo was selling stuff, broken down into 50% 3DS, 30% 2DS, 20% rest (Wii,WiiU I'd assume).



Yakuzaice on 03 January 2014
kirby007 said:

yes, you are right, pardon my french. Still doesn't match vgc numbers

I found numbers from June showing 238k for the year and 1.93m YTD.  VGC is pretty much spot on for the year, but low for the LTD.  Though, the LTD number seems odd to me when compared to the 2.15m from the Nintendo France interview.  238k in the first 6 months, but then only 220k in the next five ending in November?  In the US November alone was more than March through June combined.  Obviously the increasing importance of Black Friday plays a role, but I wouldn't expect it to be that much.  Assuming the 1.93m and the 2.15m numbers are correct, then VGC from July through November has overtracked the 3DS by 207k or nearly 100%.

It also seems that the LTD discrepency goes all the way back to 2011.  At the end of the year it was at 761k, VGC shows 698k.

http://www.gameblog.fr/news/36870-ventes-consoles-en-france-les-vrais-chiffres-font-mal



Zero999 on 03 January 2014
kirby007 said:
My theory is that due to november NPD vgc is lowballing 3DS numbers to be on the safe side

that's quite possible, same for wii u. the opposite is also possible for ps4.



Yakuzaice on 03 January 2014

Okay.

2011: 761k
2012: almost 950k
2013 through June: 238k

Assuming that almost 950k means around 930k, then it gels with the LTD at the end of June.  Also means VGC numbers for 2012 and the first half of 2013 are good.  2011 was undertracked, and it seems 2013 since July has been heavily overtracked.



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Zero999 on 03 January 2014
errorpwns said:
The delusion here is that if it isn't a Sony console it is heavily overtracked.

I noticed the trend.



Lawlight on 03 January 2014

3DS has been consistently overtracked so the trend indicates that it will be in December too.



kirby007 on 03 January 2014

So with this in mind it's very likely september 2013 has been a bit to high ( eventho mh4 launched )!
furthermore that the 2ds actually has been a significant boost in the rest of the world, which has it tracking as the highest holiday season in its. which is why I debate current december numbers, since it looks like the worst month so far,and it can't be all on japanese decline



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Yakuzaice on 03 January 2014
kirby007 said:
So with this in mind it's very likely september 2013 has been a bit to high ( eventho mh4 launched )!
furthermore that the 2ds actually has been a significant boost in the rest of the world, which has it tracking as the highest holiday season in its. which is why I debate current december numbers, since it looks like the worst month so far,and it can't be all on japanese decline

I'm not sure we've really established that the 2DS has been responsible for a significant boost.  Based on the French numbers, December will need to be more than the previous 11 months combined to hit 2012's total.  I think there is a possibility that the current sales number wasn't completely current, but even if it was a few weeks old, the numbers aren't looking great YoY.

Also I went through the numbers in a previous post.  It is quite literally all Japanese decline.  December (including the 700k and 500k you estimated for the next two weeks) will be down worldwide, but up 240k YoY outside of Japan.

Regarding September it didn't really matter one way or the other.  The numbers were high because of Japan, and we already know that Japan is sharply down YoY in December.



kirby007 on 04 January 2014

other adjustments i expect to happen here in the following weeks:
ps4 week of the 21th will be adjusted downwards ( supply )
ps4 numbers of the 28th will be adjusted upwards after the initial numbers ( expect initial numbers to be low )



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.