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Forums - Sales - December 2013 will face adjustments based on the trend

kirby007 on 01 January 2014
pezus said:
kirby007 said:
http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2010&end_year=2013&console=3DS

Yeah, that doesn't match the reality, for some reason.

If you go back to the weekly sales charts of Nov 2012 you can calculate it around 2.05m from Nov 4 to Dec 1 vs. 2.15m or so in 2013 from Nov 3 to Nov 30.

so november last year was a bit bigger, it still is so that since sept its trending over its top year



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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bubblegamer on 01 January 2014

Yes i expect adjustments here and there as well.

PS4 down by 100k, PS3 up by 300k, 360 looks good, WiiU down by 200k, PSP up a little, PS Vita up a little, 3DS down by 400k, Wii looks about right and Xbone up by a little.

Something along those lines is what i'm thinking.



errorpwns on 01 January 2014

The delusion here is that if it isn't a Sony console it is heavily overtracked.



kirby007 on 01 January 2014

it needs around 1.6 mil to match last december, but due to higher trending sales since 2ds launch i conclude we have some serious undertracking
last week dec +- 700k
first week jan +-500k ( includes few days of dec)
so were down atleast 400k-700k



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

bananaking21 on 01 January 2014
errorpwns said:
The delusion here is that if it isn't a Sony console it is heavily overtracked.


agreed. also, everything else is overtracked, way overtracked. its those darn sony fans, damn do i hate them, every last one of them. 



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kirby007 on 01 January 2014

im not gonna get into the sonyfans vs the rest of the internet debate
anyway back on the point if were off on the 3ds for this month its quite likely due to the addition of the 2ds



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Yakuzaice on 03 January 2014
kirby007 said:
it needs around 1.6 mil to match last december, but due to higher trending sales since 2ds launch i conclude we have some serious undertracking
last week dec +- 700k
first week jan +-500k ( includes few days of dec)
so were down atleast 400k-700k

Pezus mentioned it several times, but are you factoring in the fact that it is down so much in Japan?  In just the first three weeks of December it is down over 410k.  It will probably be over 500k for the full month.  More if we are counting into the first week of January.

Three weeks in, VGC has the 3DS down 345k, which means it is up outside of Japan by about 65k so far (actually a little higher when using VGC numbers rather than Media Create for Japan).  That total outside Japan is currently 2.12m.  If we use your 700k and 500k for the next two weeks and assume Japan will be down ~150k, that brings the total outside JP to about 2.92m.  That is already up about 240k YoY, and then you expect as much as 700k (maybe more since you said at least) more on top of that?  That would be up more than 35% YoY outside of Japan.

While we don't really have much actual data for December outside of Japan, the 3DS hasn't really been tearing it up on European software charts.



kirby007 on 03 January 2014
Yakuzaice said:
kirby007 said:
it needs around 1.6 mil to match last december, but due to higher trending sales since 2ds launch i conclude we have some serious undertracking
last week dec +- 700k
first week jan +-500k ( includes few days of dec)
so were down atleast 400k-700k

Pezus mentioned it several times, but are you factoring in the fact that it is down so much in Japan?  In just the first three weeks of December it is down over 410k.  It will probably be over 500k for the full month.  More if we are counting into the first week of January.

Three weeks in, VGC has the 3DS down 345k, which means it is up outside of Japan by about 65k so far (actually a little higher when using VGC numbers rather than Media Create for Japan).  That total outside Japan is currently 2.12m.  If we use your 700k and 500k for the next two weeks and assume Japan will be down ~150k, that brings the total outside JP to about 2.92m.  That is already up about 240k YoY, and then you expect as much as 700k (maybe more since you said at least) more on top of that?  That would be up more than 35% YoY outside of Japan.

While we don't really have much actual data for December outside of Japan, the 3DS hasn't really been tearing it up on European software charts.

you do realise the trend went up when the 2ds launched everywhere in the world except for japan



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Yakuzaice on 03 January 2014
kirby007 said:

you do realise the trend went up when the 2ds launched everywhere in the world except for japan

Do you have this data for everywhere in the world except Japan?  In the US it was up in October and November, but there were also the factors of Pokemon, Zelda/bundles, and much better Black Friday deals than last year.

You also didn't really address any of my points.  Your thesis in multiple posts seemed to be based on the fact that VGC had the 3DS down worldwide YoY, but you never acknowledged that it was up YoY outside of Japan.  You also bring up September a couple times, but the only reason it was so high was due to Monster Hunter in Japan.  In the US and Europe sales were down for the month.  Since we know that Japanese sales have been down drastically YoY in December, and Japanese sales were the only reason for high September sales, then September being up YoY has absolutely no bearing on December being up.

There are also the long term tracking issues VGC has with the 3DS.  On September 30th, Nintendo had shipped 34.98m 3DS units to retail.  Five days later on October 5th, VGC showed 35.03m sold to consumers.  Considering in Japan alone VGC shows at least 280k of those 3DS units from the 30th still unsold on the 5th, that 35.03m is quite impossible.  Now these pre October numbers don't have any direct influence on the December numbers, but they do indicate a history of overtracking the 3DS in Europe/Rest of the World.  Maybe they have improved things, but considering the number has actually gotten higher since financials were initially released on October 30th, I wouldn't count on it.



kirby007 on 03 January 2014
Yakuzaice said:
kirby007 said:

you do realise the trend went up when the 2ds launched everywhere in the world except for japan

Do you have this data for everywhere in the world except Japan?  In the US it was up in October and November, but there were also the factors of Pokemon, Zelda/bundles, and much better Black Friday deals than last year.

You also didn't really address any of my points.  Your thesis in multiple posts seemed to be based on the fact that VGC had the 3DS down worldwide YoY, but you never acknowledged that it was up YoY outside of Japan.  You also bring up September a couple times, but the only reason it was so high was due to Monster Hunter in Japan.  In the US and Europe sales were down for the month.  Since we know that Japanese sales have been down drastically YoY in December, and Japanese sales were the only reason for high September sales, then September being up YoY has absolutely no bearing on December being up.

There are also the long term tracking issues VGC has with the 3DS.  On September 30th, Nintendo had shipped 34.98m 3DS units to retail.  Five days later on October 5th, VGC showed 35.03m sold to consumers.  Considering in Japan alone VGC shows at least 280k of those 3DS units from the 30th still unsold on the 5th, that 35.03m is quite impossible.  Now these pre October numbers don't have any direct influence on the December numbers, but they do indicate a history of overtracking the 3DS in Europe/Rest of the World.  Maybe they have improved things, but considering the number has actually gotten higher since financials were initially released on October 30th, I wouldn't count on it.

are those 34.98 including the 2ds?



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.