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Forums - Sales - BOLD PREDICTION: The PS4 will outsell the 3DS+Wii U

 

Do you think the PS4 will outsell the 3DS+Wii U?

Yes 431 30.12%
 
No 889 62.12%
 
They'll sell the same ak... 110 7.69%
 
Total:1,430
tak13 said:
Kerotan said:
You know a console hasn't sold well when you say it "could" have sold 20m+ like that's a pretty low number as it is.

Anyway epic prediction der nobel. i'll be sure to link him this over on vizioneck where he still posts. he may start preparing the crow early.

I will make a prediction in the end of the year, that switch will outsell ps4+xbox one  ( lets say 110m+45m ) , and this suprisingly ends up happening...

 

How would you call that ?

Not realistic. And not comparable. He was predicting a PS console to sell incredibly well. Nothing too farfetched. You're predicting a Nintendo console to outsell a PS console.



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This thread is pure gold



tak13 said:
Kerotan said:
You know a console hasn't sold well when you say it "could" have sold 20m+ like that's a pretty low number as it is.

Anyway epic prediction der nobel. i'll be sure to link him this over on vizioneck where he still posts. he may start preparing the crow early.

I will make a prediction in the end of the year, that switch will outsell ps4+xbox one  ( lets say 110m+45m ) , and this suprisingly ends up happening...

 

How would you call that ? Lucky guess because I didn't have any compelling evidence!

Although, I have to give credit to dernebel because he called it a bold prediction since he made it in 2013 and i'm acting like he didn't.

I would say well done tak. You just made a superb prediction. Now go out and serve all that crow. That's what i'd tell you. 



tak13 said:
DonFerrari said:

Nope. Just asking what is the point in poiting that on a small period it had a growth to try and win an argument when the official shipment is Fiscal Year and on that it was down and anyway was lower than 11M that was the base made to say it could outdo PS4.

 Again, I didn't make any reference to that...

In fiscal year 3DS is yoy up, in calendar year  is slightly yoy down which is because of New 3ds xl release in the first quarter of 2015...

I shouldn't make lawlight aware of 3ds growth in mid 2016 and about the selling out in the USA on holidays ?

Yes you may make him aware of that, still won't make that relevant. The handheld is on it's dying days.

tak13 said:
DonFerrari said:

Even here you have to bring the almost double userbase double sw sold?

Have  I said it again ? A bit arbitary I know but it's not irrational, there is some basis on that.

The 62% of wii u owners have the game,  almost every new wii u owner after MK8 release was buying wii u and mk8 along with wii u owners before MK8 release, so mario kart 8 attach rate was increasing every quarter, instead of falling as installbase was increasing.

 

If wii u had been bought from another 14m people, what makes you think that the 5.5m from them wouldn't acquire a MK8 copy? 

Okay,  I exaggerated, do you want me to decrease it to 12m ?

I'm pretty sure you have said predictions that doubling the HW of the WiiU it would double the main SWs sales...

On 2 or 3 of those threads our good porcupine user posted graphics showing how userbase doesn't correlate to sw sales... look at Uncharted for example, the growth on SW sales is basically indiferent to HW increase (the game increased on popularity an not on HW), because if this suposition of doubling was true then Mario Kart if released on PS4 would sell 40M? You see how ridiculous that claim is?

tak13 said:
Kerotan said:
You know a console hasn't sold well when you say it "could" have sold 20m+ like that's a pretty low number as it is.

Anyway epic prediction der nobel. i'll be sure to link him this over on vizioneck where he still posts. he may start preparing the crow early.

I will make a prediction in the end of the year, that switch will outsell ps4+xbox one  ( lets say 110m+45m ) , and this suprisingly ends up happening...

How would you call that ? Lucky guess because I didn't have any compelling evidence!

Although, I have to give credit to dernebel because he called it a bold prediction owing to how premature it was and i'm acting like he didn't.

He didn't just said "I guess PS4 will outsell WiiU and 3DS", he gave quite precise numbers (that seems believable), that 3DS would start declining that year and that WiiU wouldn't do much better than it was doing. So he basically got 3 things right on the prediction not only the end result.

Kerotan said:
tak13 said:

I will make a prediction in the end of the year, that switch will outsell ps4+xbox one  ( lets say 110m+45m ) , and this suprisingly ends up happening...

How would you call that ? Lucky guess because I didn't have any compelling evidence!

Although, I have to give credit to dernebel because he called it a bold prediction since he made it in 2013 and i'm acting like he didn't.

I would say well done tak. You just made a superb prediction. Now go out and serve all that crow. That's what i'd tell you. 

Uhnnn don't think that will happen.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
tak13 said:

 Again, I didn't make any reference to that...

In fiscal year 3DS is yoy up, in calendar year  is slightly yoy down which is because of New 3ds xl release in the first quarter of 2015...

I shouldn't make lawlight aware of 3ds growth in mid 2016 and about the selling out in the USA on holidays ?

Yes you may make him aware of that, still won't make that relevant. The handheld is on it's dying days.

tak13 said:

Have  I said it again ? A bit arbitary I know but it's not irrational, there is some basis on that.

The 62% of wii u owners have the game,  almost every new wii u owner after MK8 release was buying wii u and mk8 along with wii u owners before MK8 release, so mario kart 8 attach rate was increasing every quarter, instead of falling as installbase was increasing.

 

If wii u had been bought from another 14m people, what makes you think that the 5.5m from them wouldn't acquire a MK8 copy? 

Okay,  I exaggerated, do you want me to decrease it to 12m ?

I'm pretty sure you have said predictions that doubling the HW of the WiiU it would double the main SWs sales...

On 2 or 3 of those threads our good porcupine user posted graphics showing how userbase doesn't correlate to sw sales... look at Uncharted for example, the growth on SW sales is basically indiferent to HW increase (the game increased on popularity an not on HW), because if this suposition of doubling was true then Mario Kart if released on PS4 would sell 40M? You see how ridiculous that claim is?

tak13 said:

I will make a prediction in the end of the year, that switch will outsell ps4+xbox one  ( lets say 110m+45m ) , and this suprisingly ends up happening...

How would you call that ? Lucky guess because I didn't have any compelling evidence!

Although, I have to give credit to dernebel because he called it a bold prediction owing to how premature it was and i'm acting like he didn't.

He didn't just said "I guess PS4 will outsell WiiU and 3DS", he gave quite precise numbers (that seems believable), that 3DS would start declining that year and that WiiU wouldn't do much better than it was doing. So he basically got 3 things right on the prediction not only the end result.

Kerotan said:

I would say well done tak. You just made a superb prediction. Now go out and serve all that crow. That's what i'd tell you. 

Uhnnn don't think that will happen.

As for the first you will eat your words soon... Not that you are right currently, but Ι can't discuss it further because you expect me to reply to so many things!

The second,  we're talking  about one specific game not the software generally. So for you none of the +14m  wii u buyer would purchase Mario kart when the 62% of the  already owners has, I said almost every new wii u owner was bying MK8 ! Also, you compare apples with oranges...  Simple paradigm, what does it mean to you that Mario kart 8 on a 14m  installbase has sold more than every Uncharted on PS3 which has the octaple installbase ? Given porcupine's ( who is this ? )  analysis which I don't  think that I have ever seen, MK8 should sell just 4m on wii u.

 

The third is because there was no evidence for what he was predicting about 3DS when he made that prediction! 3DS was perfoming like PS4 then.

The last is hypothetical...



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Kerotan said:
tak13 said:

I will make a prediction in the end of the year, that switch will outsell ps4+xbox one  ( lets say 110m+45m ) , and this suprisingly ends up happening...

 

How would you call that ? Lucky guess because I didn't have any compelling evidence!

Although, I have to give credit to dernebel because he called it a bold prediction owing to how premature it was and i'm acting like he didn't.

I would say well done tak. You just made a superb prediction. Now go out and serve all that crow. That's what i'd tell you. 

Oh...

Anyway, we have different point of view of the way of predictions!



tak13 said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes you may make him aware of that, still won't make that relevant. The handheld is on it's dying days.

I'm pretty sure you have said predictions that doubling the HW of the WiiU it would double the main SWs sales...

On 2 or 3 of those threads our good porcupine user posted graphics showing how userbase doesn't correlate to sw sales... look at Uncharted for example, the growth on SW sales is basically indiferent to HW increase (the game increased on popularity an not on HW), because if this suposition of doubling was true then Mario Kart if released on PS4 would sell 40M? You see how ridiculous that claim is?

He didn't just said "I guess PS4 will outsell WiiU and 3DS", he gave quite precise numbers (that seems believable), that 3DS would start declining that year and that WiiU wouldn't do much better than it was doing. So he basically got 3 things right on the prediction not only the end result.

Uhnnn don't think that will happen.

As for the first you eat your words soon... Not that you are right currently, but Ι can't discuss it further because you expect me to reply to so many things!

The second,  we're talking for one specific game not the software generally... So for you none of the +14m  wii u buyer would purchase Mario kart when the 62% of the  already owners has! Also, you compare apples with oranges...  Simple paradigm, what does it mean to you that Mario kart 8 on a 14m  installbase has sold more than every Uncharted on PS3 which has the octaple installbase! Given porcupine's analysis which I don't  think that I have ever seen, MK8 should sell just 4m on wii u..

 

The third is because there was no evidence for what he was predicting about 3DS when he made that prediction! 3DS was perfoming like PS4 then.

The last is hypothetical...

The handheld means 3DS, you will say it isn't on its ending days? Will it peak over 15M a year?

Doesn't matter the specific Hardware or Software. There is no linear correlation, it's impossible to afirm that MK8 would sell 60% of the install base on a 5M or 100M. Because for that to be true it would sell 3M on first case and 60M in the second case, do you really think that would happen? If any SW had that power then it alone would have pushed the console to that height. In a very small variation it may seem logical "8M SW on 12MHW could mean 10M on 15M HW" but when I show you it on extremes of 3M on 5M 60M on 100M then you can see how ridiculous the claim is. That is know as reduction to ridiculous.

If there were evidence that 3DS would sell only around 70M and WiiU 15M then it wouldn't be a prediction but just an analysis.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

tak13 said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes you may make him aware of that, still won't make that relevant. The handheld is on it's dying days.

I'm pretty sure you have said predictions that doubling the HW of the WiiU it would double the main SWs sales...

On 2 or 3 of those threads our good porcupine user posted graphics showing how userbase doesn't correlate to sw sales... look at Uncharted for example, the growth on SW sales is basically indiferent to HW increase (the game increased on popularity an not on HW), because if this suposition of doubling was true then Mario Kart if released on PS4 would sell 40M? You see how ridiculous that claim is?

He didn't just said "I guess PS4 will outsell WiiU and 3DS", he gave quite precise numbers (that seems believable), that 3DS would start declining that year and that WiiU wouldn't do much better than it was doing. So he basically got 3 things right on the prediction not only the end result.

Uhnnn don't think that will happen.

As for the first you will eat your words soon... Not that you are right currently, but Ι can't discuss it further because you expect me to reply to so many things!

The second,  we're talking  about one specific game not the software generally... So for you none of the +14m  wii u buyer would purchase Mario kart when the 62% of the  already owners has, I said almost every new wii u owner was bying MK8 ! Also, you compare apples with oranges...  Simple paradigm, what does it mean to you that Mario kart 8 on a 14m  installbase has sold more than every Uncharted on PS3 which has the octaple installbase? Given porcupine's ( who is this ? )  analysis which I don't  think that I have ever seen, MK8 should sell just 4m on wii u..

 

The third is because there was no evidence for what he was predicting about 3DS when he made that prediction! 3DS was perfoming like PS4 then.

The last is hypothetical...

Not hypothetical... you are trying to deflact you being wrong instead of admitting it.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
tak13 said:

As for the first you will eat your words soon... Not that you are right currently, but Ι can't discuss it further because you expect me to reply to so many things!

The second,  we're talking  about one specific game not the software generally... So for you none of the +14m  wii u buyer would purchase Mario kart when the 62% of the  already owners has, I said almost every new wii u owner was bying MK8 ! Also, you compare apples with oranges...  Simple paradigm, what does it mean to you that Mario kart 8 on a 14m  installbase has sold more than every Uncharted on PS3 which has the octaple installbase? Given porcupine's ( who is this ? )  analysis which I don't  think that I have ever seen, MK8 should sell just 4m on wii u..

 

The third is because there was no evidence for what he was predicting about 3DS when he made that prediction! 3DS was perfoming like PS4 then.

The last is hypothetical...

Not hypothetical... you are trying to deflact you being wrong instead of admitting it.

What the f@ck? 

Of course it was hypothetical, I wouldn't make such an insane prediction, especially  so early!

It was just a paradigm!



tak13 said:
DonFerrari said:

Not hypothetical... you are trying to deflact you being wrong instead of admitting it.

What the f@ck? 

Of course it was hypothetical, I wouldn't make such an insane prediction, especially  so early!

It was just a paradigm!

Not talking about you making that prediction... talking about you in this prediction.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."