BOLD PREDICTION: The PS4 will outsell the 3DS+Wii U

[DonFerrari]

tak13 said:

DonFerrari said:

Yes you may make him aware of that, still won't make that relevant. The handheld is on it's dying days.

I'm pretty sure you have said predictions that doubling the HW of the WiiU it would double the main SWs sales...

On 2 or 3 of those threads our good porcupine user posted graphics showing how userbase doesn't correlate to sw sales... look at Uncharted for example, the growth on SW sales is basically indiferent to HW increase (the game increased on popularity an not on HW), because if this suposition of doubling was true then Mario Kart if released on PS4 would sell 40M? You see how ridiculous that claim is?

He didn't just said "I guess PS4 will outsell WiiU and 3DS", he gave quite precise numbers (that seems believable), that 3DS would start declining that year and that WiiU wouldn't do much better than it was doing. So he basically got 3 things right on the prediction not only the end result.

Uhnnn don't think that will happen.

As for the first you eat your words soon... Not that you are right currently, but Ι can't discuss it further because you expect me to reply to so many things!

The second,  we're talking for one specific game not the software generally... So for you none of the +14m  wii u buyer would purchase Mario kart when the 62% of the  already owners has! Also, you compare apples with oranges...  Simple paradigm, what does it mean to you that Mario kart 8 on a 14m  installbase has sold more than every Uncharted on PS3 which has the octaple installbase! Given porcupine's analysis which I don't  think that I have ever seen, MK8 should sell just 4m on wii u..

 

The third is because there was no evidence for what he was predicting about 3DS when he made that prediction! 3DS was perfoming like PS4 then.

The last is hypothetical...

The handheld means 3DS, you will say it isn't on its ending days? Will it peak over 15M a year?

Doesn't matter the specific Hardware or Software. There is no linear correlation, it's impossible to afirm that MK8 would sell 60% of the install base on a 5M or 100M. Because for that to be true it would sell 3M on first case and 60M in the second case, do you really think that would happen? If any SW had that power then it alone would have pushed the console to that height. In a very small variation it may seem logical "8M SW on 12MHW could mean 10M on 15M HW" but when I show you it on extremes of 3M on 5M 60M on 100M then you can see how ridiculous the claim is. That is know as reduction to ridiculous.

If there were evidence that 3DS would sell only around 70M and WiiU 15M then it wouldn't be a prediction but just an analysis.