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tak13 on 15 June 2017
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DonFerrari said:
tak13 said:

 Again, I didn't make any reference to that...

In fiscal year 3DS is yoy up, in calendar year  is slightly yoy down which is because of New 3ds xl release in the first quarter of 2015...

I shouldn't make lawlight aware of 3ds growth in mid 2016 and about the selling out in the USA on holidays ?

Yes you may make him aware of that, still won't make that relevant. The handheld is on it's dying days.

tak13 said:

Have  I said it again ? A bit arbitary I know but it's not irrational, there is some basis on that.

The 62% of wii u owners have the game,  almost every new wii u owner after MK8 release was buying wii u and mk8 along with wii u owners before MK8 release, so mario kart 8 attach rate was increasing every quarter, instead of falling as installbase was increasing.

 

If wii u had been bought from another 14m people, what makes you think that the 5.5m from them wouldn't acquire a MK8 copy? 

Okay,  I exaggerated, do you want me to decrease it to 12m ?

I'm pretty sure you have said predictions that doubling the HW of the WiiU it would double the main SWs sales...

On 2 or 3 of those threads our good porcupine user posted graphics showing how userbase doesn't correlate to sw sales... look at Uncharted for example, the growth on SW sales is basically indiferent to HW increase (the game increased on popularity an not on HW), because if this suposition of doubling was true then Mario Kart if released on PS4 would sell 40M? You see how ridiculous that claim is?

tak13 said:

I will make a prediction in the end of the year, that switch will outsell ps4+xbox one  ( lets say 110m+45m ) , and this suprisingly ends up happening...

How would you call that ? Lucky guess because I didn't have any compelling evidence!

Although, I have to give credit to dernebel because he called it a bold prediction owing to how premature it was and i'm acting like he didn't.

He didn't just said "I guess PS4 will outsell WiiU and 3DS", he gave quite precise numbers (that seems believable), that 3DS would start declining that year and that WiiU wouldn't do much better than it was doing. So he basically got 3 things right on the prediction not only the end result.

Kerotan said:

I would say well done tak. You just made a superb prediction. Now go out and serve all that crow. That's what i'd tell you. 

Uhnnn don't think that will happen.

As for the first you will eat your words soon... Not that you are right currently, but Ι can't discuss it further because you expect me to reply to so many things!

The second,  we're talking  about one specific game not the software generally. So for you none of the +14m  wii u buyer would purchase Mario kart when the 62% of the  already owners has, I said almost every new wii u owner was bying MK8 ! Also, you compare apples with oranges...  Simple paradigm, what does it mean to you that Mario kart 8 on a 14m  installbase has sold more than every Uncharted on PS3 which has the octaple installbase ? Given porcupine's ( who is this ? )  analysis which I don't  think that I have ever seen, MK8 should sell just 4m on wii u.

 

The third is because there was no evidence for what he was predicting about 3DS when he made that prediction! 3DS was perfoming like PS4 then.

The last is hypothetical...