Your expectations are too high, it's barely done 3m this year, yet you expect 2m across Jan - March WITHOUT mariokart.

For arguments sake let's say it sells 5.5 million by the end of the year (Actual number will probably be just under) I think realistically it could sell 7 million units in 2014 putting the total at 12.5 million. I suppose if everything goes off wrong the worst case scenario would be around 9.5-10 million total and if everything goes better than expected we might see a total of 14.5-15 million. Although software sells hardware and 2014 has some awesome Wii U games it's hard to convince people to buy a Wii U when for $100 more you can get a PS4.

I am not basing Wii U's my estimation on Wii U's recent success in Japan as you premuse and probably hope so  also you are just presume/assume that Wiii U is bombing outside of Japan which is not correct and Wii U sells considerably better than GameCube in Japan as we compare the second year.

Gamecube had better 3rd party support yet it did not result in sales and Wii U sells well compared to Gamecube when we see the amount of 3rd party support that Gamecube has over Wii U. Wii U by now should have 5 million units in one year one and half months which is 1(4th of Gamecube sales and Gamecube achieved in 5-6 years in its life time 20 million units. When we look at Wii U and compare it to Gamecube, Wii U looks like an anomaly.

You have the point yet you are going too doom and gloom into consoles 1st year, look at PlayStation 3... It rose from the ashes in much harder enviroment so Wii U with its problems should easily overcome them. Once the software sales are very good for Nintendo on Wii U then Nintendo might bite the bullet again and drop price to 250$ which is a magical bundle, then you will see Wii U fly off the shelf as it did does at some retailers that did holiday price cut.

Expect that price drop next holiday...

Worst case scenario is that it's down YoY, that's 8.5m or less.

I did it.  Finally bought the Wii U.  The Best Buy deal (buy the Wii U, get a 25 gift card and Zombie U for free) finally made me get it.  Looking forward to playing 3D mario, smash, and mario kart when they release to name a few.

In the mean time, 2d mario is really fun, and planning to get wind waker hd too.

IMO, this system complements the Xbox One and/or the PS4 well.  Also, with it getting easier and easier to find it BELOW 300, I can see sales staying up a bit.  Perhaps the OP is a bit optimistic though.

the gamecube sold  6.68 million its first year, i don't see your point there and ps3 is like comparing apple to oranges, the ps3 is crushing the wiiu interms of monthly sales it actually had momentum, and launched in europe 5 months later,thats why its first year looks so bad, it was missing numbers from its best selling region and price was huge proplem,third party support was always excellent.

"High" would be an understatement, lol. 

I honestly would not be surprised if Wii U Jan-March sell through combined in North America (by NPD) turn out to be less than 150,000 *total*. 

Worst case scenario is that no Wii U's sell in 2014 ;). With Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros coming out there is no way that it will sell less than 4 million next year. 

I don't see it doing anymore than 12 million by the end of 2014. And that's only if Smash Bros becomes a huge system seller. The system will drop dead in January, and won't pick back up until Mario Kart 8 comes out. Luckily it's library is much better now so it shouldn't have the abysmal weekly sales that it did early 2013.

I agree on a possible 12M next year but not as a worst scenario.
And your Jan Feb predictions are out of reach. 5M by next year hopefully as you said, then 6M by end Jan so 1M in a month?!! and the month that follows holidays ? nope and also February 750k which is 180k per week, no sorry.
Nonetheless, it can pull great numbers following the release of MK8 and X later..