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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - My Wii U estimation(near future, instal base, short)...

supernihilist said:

hey listen, i wish WiiU would sell 200m by Jan 2015, trust me, i love the system and Nintendo, but i cant see WiiU doing more than 7m even with those heavy hitters.

Honestly, 11-12m by Jan 2015 would be ideal, and would put Nintendo in a good position to battle against X1 and PS4 first years and gain some early marketshare.



...I wish you were keeping all thing real, but you aren't... People always underestimate Nintendo and they get proven wrong, so I always wonder why people can't learn from their mistakes at all when comes to Nintendo and that is really funny to me and I feel pity of those people. It won't be the Gamecube, they aren't making the same crucial mistakes that they did in the past...

Don't underestimate the power exclusives, if you are doing that to Nintendo then do that also for Sony or Microsoft... Otherwise get out because you are being discriminative to Nintendo and not treating it equally as a company, similar thing happened to Sony with PlayStation 3. Everyone low balled it... Sometimes you people make me sick.

Wii U by now is  5 million, if lucky they could reach 5.5 million by end of the year if the pace stays the same.

Wii U currently has an advantage when comes to library of games so that will help... That one year wasn't going to waste entirely.



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  I expect the Wii U to  reach 9 ( Worst scenario)-13 million ( Best scenario) by 2014.



                
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eyeofcore said:
supernihilist said:
 

hey listen, i wish WiiU would sell 200m by Jan 2015, trust me, i love the system and Nintendo, but i cant see WiiU doing more than 7m even with those heavy hitters.

Honestly, 11-12m by Jan 2015 would be ideal, and would put Nintendo in a good position to battle against X1 and PS4 first years and gain some early marketshare.



...I wish you were keeping all thing real, but you aren't... People always underestimate Nintendo and they get proven wrong, so I always wonder why people can't learn from their mistakes at all when comes to Nintendo and that is really funny to me and I feel pity of those people. It won't be the Gamecube, they aren't making the same crucial mistakes that they did in the past...

Don't underestimate the power exclusives, if you are doing that to Nintendo then do that also for Sony or Microsoft... Otherwise get out because you are being discriminative to Nintendo and not treating it equally as a company, similar thing happened to Sony with PlayStation 3. Everyone low balled it... Sometimes you people make me sick.

Wii U by now is  5 million, if lucky they could reach 5.5 million by end of the year if the pace stays the same.

Wii U currently has an advantage when comes to library of games so that will help... That one year wasn't going to waste entirely.

im not underestimating anything. My estima for Nintendo is probably higher than yours. Im just saying that your predictions are not going to happen. Well i agreed that theres a possibility for 12m LTD Jan 2015. But its just a possibility, its not probable to happen.

 

WiiU sold 3m this year. 3 fucking milion consoles in a whole year! thats insanely low.  a 150% increase YoY sales is a very optimistic prediction. i still think they can do it thanks to the power of their SW but its not a given, and of course going beyond that isnt happening.

 

youre delusional



supernihilist said:

im not underestimating anything. My estima for Nintendo is probably higher than yours. Im just saying that your predictions are not going to happen. Well i agreed that theres a possibility for 12m LTD Jan 2015. But its just a possibility, its not probable to happen.

WiiU sold 3m this year. 3 fucking milion consoles in a whole year! thats insanely low.  a 150% increase YoY sales is a very optimistic prediction. i still think they can do it thanks to the power of their SW but its not a given, and of course going beyond that isnt happening.

youre delusional


I wish I was delusional, but that isn't the case sadly for you... You don't have an eye for detail to spot things and brain to connect the dots. Software moves hardware as Reggie said and he is correct, you are just ignoring important factors and not counting various variables . Anway it won't be 12 million for January 2015, it will be 12.5 million by end of 2014 at worst if Nintendo's and some second and third party exclusives don't have an effect...

I am now looking at the smackdown for mainstream media and Sony and Microsoft fans for Q1 2014 when they hit by a "short" drought for entire Q1 from all currently available information about releases and that after the rapid release of games in Q4 2013 for XO and PS4. On Q2 it will likely end if there aren't any major delays or substantial number of less notable ones... It is only about Q1, Wii U will be hit also except its now enstablished library will offset that with ease...



Lack of 3rd party support and a software drought the first year aren't considered mistakes? The Wii U so far can be defined as a massive mistake. Seriously, Nintendo came into this generation with a lackluster effort expecting the Wii U to sell, due of their astounding success with the Wii and they got burned pretty badly.

2014 looks like a nice year and all, but they still need a lot more.

Can the Wii U be successful? It can be... but its been a pretty bad effort so far.



Current gaming platforms - Switch, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Wii U, New 3DS, PC

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PenguinZ said:
Lack of 3rd party support and a software drought the first year aren't considered mistakes? The Wii U so far can be defined as a massive mistake. Seriously, Nintendo came into this generation with a lackluster effort expecting the Wii U to sell, due of their astounding success with the Wii and they got burned pretty badly.

You are now jumping to conclusion involving my statement, bravo/congratulations...

3rd party support on Wii U is not ideal at all and yet it is not as bad as lets say Nintendo 64 and software drought was because Nintendo rushed and they decided to give a third party the spotlight on Wii U and what 3rd party did? They failed to use the enourmous chance to enstablish them self, while some major 3rd party publishers aren't supporting or have left then you have Ubisoft and Activision that are having a duopoly when comes to 3rd party games thus Wii U instal base will likely buy their games.

Mistakes that have been on Wii U are nowhere as massive as what has been done on Gamecube... lol

Nintendo panicked and got what they deserved... You need to make mistakes to learn on them.

2014 looks like a nice year and all, but they still need a lot more.

You ask for "a lot more" and yet that "a lot more" is in 2014 compared to 2013...

Can the Wii U be successful? It can be... but its been a pretty bad effort so far.

First year for Wii U was a fail, second year will be the success. Look at PlayStation 3, was all doom and gloom for people yet Sony turned it around and Wii U has less issues than PlayStation 3 so Wii U being successful should be easy for Nintendo.

You can't expect everything to be perfect from any company... There will be failures here and there, same for the success.





All I will say is this: I am a huge Nintendo fan. I laughed at the PS3's horrid start, telling my friends that they would be out of gaming by 2009. In 2009, I purchased a PS3, and loved it. Due to this, I purchased a PS4 day one.

If a bad start to a system has you thinking the game is over, you're dead wrong.



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eyeofcore said:

As you saw latest Media Create Sales and how there is a trend of Wii U sales rising even though sadly VG Chartz still hasn't gave their rough estimation for last two weeks thus making an accurate estimation or to be more correct the expectaction for Wii U in near future when comes to total units sold. In my estimation I also try to estimate how much units will be sold when that or that game is released in that or that month also if it will have an effect in the next month...

Wii U should by now be at 5 million units and by end of the year it should breach 5.5 million mark of total units sold from its launch last year.... By end of Janurary it should reach 6 million while by end of February will breach mark of 6.75 million units. March it should achieve at least 7.25 million without any major release, in case Mario Kart 8 is released then I expect at least to reach 7.75 to 8.5 million total units ...

I expect Wii U to reach an instal base of at least 12.5 million in worst case scenario and 18 million in best case scenario by end of 2014 as more high profile software is getting released on Wii U such as Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros U, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Soft's X, Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem, Hyrule Warriors(working title), Yarn Yoshi and more  upcoming exclusives being unveiled for 2014 release....

your basing this  success because wiiu had nice holiday in japan, its still bombing badly every where else in the word, and even GC managed similar numbers in japan durung the holidays with the ps2 being out, unlike this year where the wiiu is the only nextgen console in japan. and still GC is still tracking way ahead of the wiiu and with way better thirdparty support to boot.



eyeofcore said:
Turkish said:
eyeofcore said:

As you saw latest Media Create Sales and how there is a trend of Wii U sales rising even though sadly VG Chartz still hasn't gave their rough estimation for last two weeks thus making an accurate estimation or to be more correct the expectaction for Wii U in near future when comes to total units sold. In my estimation I also try to estimate how much units will be sold when that or that game is released in that or that month also if it will have an effect in the next month...

Wii U should by now be at 5 million units and by end of the year it should breach 5.5 million mark of total units sold from its launch last year.... By end of Janurary it should reach 6 million while by end of February will breach mark of 6.75 million units. March it should achieve at least 7.25 million without any major release, in case Mario Kart 8 is released then I expect at least to reach 7.75 to 8.5 million total units ...

I expect Wii U to reach an instal base of at least 12.5 million in worst case scenario and 18 million in best case scenario by end of 2014 as more high profile software is getting released on Wii U such as Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros U, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Soft's X, Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem, Hyrule Warriors(working title), Yarn Yoshi and more  upcoming exclusives being unveiled for 2014 release....

 

7.50 million by march?

18 million by end of 2014?

lol...

I say Wii U might have a chance of reaching 10, maybe 11 million by end of 2014 in best case scenario.


It is 7.25 million for Mach by my personal estimation which is achieavble and it is in worst case scenario 12.5 million and best case scenario is 18 million by end of 2014, that is why I have worst and best case scenario. Your estimation is way too easy, it is nice for you for ignoring the power that exclusives that each console has, thus by your standard we should ignore all exclusives that each console has from our estimation. Good job for you.


I dont think its achievable, Mario 3D World isnt a big system seller so why would Bayonetta, Donkey Kong or X move anymore systems? The only 2 real system sellers are MK and SSB, both of which will by my estimation help Wii U bring to 10-11 million in best case scenario. I think WiiU will sell around 6 million consoles next year and Im very optimistic.

 



eyeofcore said:

You ask for "a lot more" and yet that "a lot more" is in 2014 compared to 2013...

 




Well they'd need a lot more to reach your numbers or a nice price cut.... Right now I see 3 big hitters guarenteed (DK, MK, and Smash), the rest aren't going to make much impact individually. 10 Million is somewhat realistic to me, and honestly there's nothing wrong with that number if Nintendo is able to make profit at that end of the day. PS3 and Wii U at the end of the day are two different situations, and the turnaround PS3 made was astounding.



Current gaming platforms - Switch, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Wii U, New 3DS, PC